中国水果出口贸易影响因素的实证分析

【作者】 霍尚一；

【导师】 林坚；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 水果是我国重要的经济作物,水果产业的发展和贸易在国民经济中具有重要地位。自1978年中国实行农业产业结构调整政策以来,中国的水果产业得到快速发展,1997年一跃成为世界第一水果生产大国。水果产量从1978年的657万吨增长至1997年的5089.3万吨,到2006年,中国水果产量已达9599.2万吨,占世界水果产量的18.1%。水果产业的发展也带动了水果出口贸易,水果出口额从1992年的2.83亿美元增长至2006年的12.84亿美元。然而,与世界主要水果出口国相比,中国水果出口还存在着很大差距。中国水果出口量仅占世界的2%,出口量也仅占产量的2%左右;这表明中国虽然是世界水果生产大国,但却不是贸易强国。中国水果出口远未实现其应有的潜力。影响水果出口的因素多种多样,针对影响水果出口的主要因素进行深入的研究,对挖掘中国水果出口的潜力,把中国从世界水果生产大国转变为水果贸易强国,具有重大的现实意义。本文应用国际贸易理论中的比较优势理论、产业内贸易理论、竞争力理论、区域经济一体化理论和贸易保护理论,在全球水果贸易竞争的背景下,对中国水果贸易流量和流向的影响因素进行分析;对中国水果在世界市场,以及在东盟、日本、欧盟、俄罗斯和美国市场出口变化的原因进行深入研究;对中国主要出口水果:苹果、柑橘和梨的国际竞争力进行研究;分析技术性贸易壁垒对中国水果出口的影响。本文的研究内容和主要结论如下:第一,研究了世界水果贸易的发展、主要水果进出口市场及其特点、世界水果贸易政策,以明确中国水果出口所面临的国际环境。研究结果表明,自1992年以来,世界水果贸易呈现出不断增长的趋势;世界水果贸易市场主要包括三大区域:欧盟、北美自由贸易协定区域和亚洲区域。三大区域的贸易又包括区域内部的贸易以及三大区域与赤道和南半球国家之间的贸易。内部贸易具有十分重要的地位,但是,内部贸易在三大区域的重要性又具有不同的特点。世界水果贸易政策主要包括关税壁垒和非关税壁垒,技术性贸易壁垒日益成为非关税壁垒的重要形式。在国际水果贸易环境变化的同时,中国的水果出口贸易环境也发生了巨大的变化,这主要表现在中国于2001年加入WTO以及中国与东盟签订的自由贸易协定。第二,对1992年以来中国水果国际贸易的变化进行研究,结果表明,2000年以来,中国水果贸易呈现出进出口均快速增长的趋势。中国水果贸易的市场结构表现出较为单一的特点,主要出口市场为东盟、日本和欧盟市场。在各市场内部,中国水果出口又呈现出此消彼长的特征,主要表现在东盟市场份额的快速增长,在欧盟市场份额的稍有增长以及在日本、俄罗斯市场份额的下降。中国水果出口的品种结构表现出较为单一的特点,主要集中在苹果和梨、其它坚果、柑橘以及冷冻水果和坚果上。中国水果贸易存在着产业内贸易和产业间贸易两种方式。从总量上看,以产业间贸易为主,但产业内贸易呈现增长趋势。从产业内贸易细分来看,垂直型产业内贸易占据优势地位。第三,运用贸易引力模型对中国水果贸易流量和流向变化的影响因素进行分析,结果表明,进口国的GDP、中国的农业产值、中国与各进口国之间的距离、双方的实际汇率以及双方是否为APEC成员国等是中国水果出口流量和流向的主要影响因素。中国与东盟签订自由贸易协定有利地促进了中国水果出口。运用贸易引力模型对中国水果出口的潜力进行了研究,结果表明中国水果出口“贸易过度”的国家有:印度尼西亚、马来西亚、荷兰和俄罗斯;“贸易不足“的国家是是澳大利亚、法国、日本和新加坡。第四,运用恒定市场份额模型,首先对中国水果在世界市场出口变化的原因进行分析;然后对中国水果在东盟市场、日本市场、俄罗斯市场、欧盟市场以及美国市场出口变化的原因进行了分析。结果表明,2001年以来,中国水果出口在世界市场快速增长的主要原因是中国水果竞争力的增强和国际市场需求的增长,其贡献份额分别达63%和40.2%。2001年以来,中国水果在东盟市场出口的增长主要是由于竞争力的增强和出口产品结构的改善,其贡献份额分别达43.4%和30.3%。中国水果在日本市场出口的增长主要是由于中国水果竞争力的增强。在俄罗斯市场,中国水果出口增长主要是由于出口产品结构的改善,其贡献份额达82.6%。在美国市场,2000-2005年,中国水果出口增长主要是由于中国水果竞争力的增强,其贡献份额达73.1%。2002-2006年,在中国水果对欧盟出口值的增长中,中国水果国际竞争力的提升与出口产品结构的改善几乎占有相同的重要地位。第五,对中国水果的国际竞争力进行了分析,结果表明,中国水果仅在苹果和梨上具有国际竞争力;但与主要竞争对手相比,中国苹果和梨的国际竞争力还有不小的差距。中国水果具有价格竞争力,但中国水果的非价格竞争力较弱,主要表现在产品质量和市场营销上。第六,分析了贸易壁垒对中国水果出口的影响。结果表明,欧盟、美国和日本等国的贸易壁垒主要包括关税壁垒和技术性贸易壁垒。技术性贸易壁垒又主要包括食品安全法规、产品合格标准及其认证以及植物检疫措施。这些贸易壁垒对中国的水果出口造成了较大的影响。通过以上六部分,较为全面地分析了中国水果出口贸易的影响因素,提出了对策建议,主要包括:建立与国际接轨的水果安全标准,积极申请国际认证;提高中国水果的国际竞争力;按照国际市场的需求,结合我国水果的生产优势,调整生产结构;实施市场结构多元化措施,减小市场风险;实施水果的品牌营销;协调发展产业间贸易和产业内贸易;充分利用WTO规则,积极参与WTO事务;参加区域性贸易合作,推动APEC进程;加强与其它国家在植物检验检疫方面的合作,建设水果生产的非疫区,改善中国水果出口的市场准入条件等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fruit is an important economic crop of China, the development and trade of fruit industry has a significant position in China’s economy. Since the adjustment of agricultural structure in 1978, China’s fruit industry gains rapid development.Since 1997, China has been the largest fruit production contry. Output of fruit has been increased from 6,570,000 ton in 1978 to 50,893,000 ton in 1997, China’s fruit output has reached 95,992,000 ton in 2006, and it has reached 18.1% of the world fruit production.The development of China’s fruit industry has also promoted fruit export, the export value of fruit has increased from 283 million $ in 1992 to 1284 million.However, compared with other major fruit exporting countries in the world, great gap still exists between China and them.The export volume of China’s fruit accounts for about 2 percent of output, about 2 percent of world’s total export volume.It shows although China is a large fruit producing country, it is not a big exporting country.Various factors which influences China’s fruit export exist, carrying out a deep analysis on the major influential factors has great significance in exploiting the full potentiality of China’s fruit export, and turning China from a large fruit producing country to a great fruit exporting country.Applying the comparative advantage theory, intra-industry theory and competitiveness theory of international trade theory, this dissertation carries out a research on the major influential factors of China’s fruit export from the perspective of world competition.It also carries out a reason analysis of the change of China’s fruit export to Asian, Japan, EU, and USA.It studies the competitiveness of China’s major exporting fruit: apple, orange and pear.And it studies on the influence of technical barriers to China’s fruit export.And the dissertation gets the following conclusion.Firstly, through the analysis on the development of world fruit trade, characteristics and trade policy of international fruit trade, it illustrates the international background that China’s fruit exporting industry faces.The result is as the following: Since 1992, fruit trade in the world shows a characteristics of export volume increasing.The world fruit market includes 3 parts: ie, EU, NAFTA and ASIA.The trade among them includes the intra-trade of three parts and extra-trade between the three parts and the southern hemisphere.Intra-trade is important, while the importance of the intra-trade is different in the three parts.The trade policy of world fruit trade includes tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier, and the technical barrier has become an important part of non-tariff barrier.At the same time when the trade environment of the world fruit trade changes, China’s fuit trade environment also changes, which is mainly shown in China’s joining WTO in 2001 and China’s signing a free-trade agreement with Asian.Secondly, through the analysis of the change of China’s fruit export, the following conclusion was reached, both of the export and import value shows an increasing trend since 2000.The trade structure shows monotonous varieties and the market is concentrated in mainly in Asian, Japan, EU and Russia.The change of China’s fruit export is different in various markets: The share of the export value increases rapidly in Asian market, increase somewhat in EU market, decends in Japan and Russian market.The variety structure of fruit export is comparatively monotonous, mainly concentrating on apples , pears and oranges, etc.and the the structure is concentrating more on apples and pears.There are two ways of China’s fruit trade:inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade. Generally, the inter-industry takes an overwhelming part, while the intra-industry trade shows an increasing trend.From the angle of sub-division of inter-industry trade, the vertical inter-industry trade has a dominating position.Thirdly, through the use of the gravity model, this dissertion carries out an analyisis on the influential factors of China fruit export’s trade flow, the result shows that GDP of the importing country, China’s agricultural GDP, the distance between China and the importing country, the real exchange rate and whether the two belongs to APEC are all the major influential factors of China’s fruit export trade.The free trade agreement that China signs with Asian promotes China’s fruit export to Asian.Through the research on the potentiality of China’s fruit export, it shows that countries that China has not carried out its potentiality are Australia, France, Japan and Singapore, and countries that China has over-traded are Indonesia, Malasia, Netherland and Russia.Fourthly, using the CMS model, this paper carries a reason analysis on the change of China’s fruit export on the world market and Asian, Japan, Russian,EU and USA markets.The result shows that the rapid development of China’s fruit export in the world market since 2001 is because of the increase of China’s fruit competitiveness and the increase of the world demand, the contributive percentage of which are 63% and 40.2%.Since 2001, the development of China’s fruit export in Asian market is bacause of the increase of China’s competitiveness and the improvement of China’s fruit export structure, with the improvement of China’s fruit export structure is the major reason of the increase of China’ fruit export.While in USA market, the the increase of China’s competitiveness contributes most in the development of the China’s fruit export.In EU market, increase of China’s competitiveness and the improvement of China’s fruit export structure nealy contributes equallly in the development of China’s fruit export.Fifthly, using the RCA and MS index, this paper measuring the competitiveness of China’s fruit , the result shows that apple and pear is competitive in the world market, but compared with other major exporting countries, great gap still exists. China’s fruit is price competitive, but it lacks in non-price competitiveness, mainly shown in quality and marketing.Sixly, it carries out an analysis on the influence of the trade barrier on China’s fruit trade, the result shows that the import tariff of EU and Japan, the non-tarriff barrier, including the food safetyt regulations, standards and authentication, and quarantine requirements.Trade barriers have significant influence on China’s fruit export trade.Upon the above six part, counter-measures are put forward, the key part including:establishing standards which meets requiement of international standards, taking an active part in the application of authentication; adjusting the variety structure, adopting the policy of market pluralism; participating actively in WTO affairs, promoting the process of APEC, and joining the regional cooperation; strengthening the government cooperation with other countries, establishing the non-quarantine region, etc.更多还原