我国贸易自由化的就业和工资效应研究

【作者】 蒋荷新；

【导师】 尹翔硕；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 贸易自由化是一个生产和利益重新分配的过程,对外贸易通过进出口商品数量和价格的变动对一国要素市场产生影响。制造业是我国外向程度最高的产业部门,贸易自由化进程中,我国制成品贸易规模和结构的变动正在对我国制造业整体和不同技能劳动者的就业和工资产生明显的影响。我国是劳动力资源,尤其是非熟练劳动力资源充裕的国家,按照新古典斯托尔帕-萨缪尔森定理(S-S定理),对外贸易的增长将使我国充裕要素劳动者的相对工资趋于上升,但我国实际经济并不符合新古典假定,因此S-S定理在我国的表现形式也发生了变动。从改革开放以来我国制造业劳动者就业和工资的变动中可以看到,由于失业以及劳动要素供给增长过快等原因,制成品贸易的扩张对我国制造业就业增长的促进作用较为明显,而对劳动者相对工资的影响却十分有限。对制造业细分行业的分析也表明,贸易自由化主要影响到了不同技能劳动者的就业,对不同技能劳动者相对工资的影响则较弱。如果将劳动者看作一个整体,其福利水平的变动由相对就业和相对工资共同决定,因而劳动者工资总收入占行业产出或增加值的比例(简称“劳动者收入比例”)可以更综合地反映劳动者相对收入的变动情况。为了了解贸易自由化对我国制造业整体以及不同技能劳动者相对收入的真实影响,本文以劳动者收入比例作为研究对象展开实证检验。考虑到实际经济中生产者会根据要素价格的变动调整其投入量,本文在进出口商品长期成本函数的基础上构建实证检验方程,以劳动者收入比例为决定变量,以贸易自由化进程中进出口贸易、各类投入要素的价格以及各类结构性因素作为解释变量,从实证角度对贸易自由化与制造业劳动者整体和不同技能劳动者收入比例之间的相关性进行了分析。实证检验结果表明,贸易自由化进程中,制成品贸易总额及制成品进出口贸易的扩大都对劳动者收入比例的提高都起到了积极的推动作用,其中出口的作用更为明显,并且贸易自由化对劳动者相对收入的推动作用主要以就业增长形式实现。对不同技能劳动者收入比例的实证检验结果也表明,不同技术行业进出口贸易的增长对所在行业劳动者收入比例的提高产生了积极的影响,并且在非熟练劳动密集的低技术行业,这一促进作用更为明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 Trade liberalization is a reallocation process of product and profit. Foreign trade influences the factor market through the amount and price of the goods of import and export. During the period of trade liberalization, the value and structure of the foreign trade in China has been improved greatly, which has played a vital important effect on the employment and wage ratio of workers in the manufacture sector.According to the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, free trade will improve the relative revenue of abundant factor. As a labor-abundant, especially unskilled-labor-abundant country, foreign trade will increase the relative wage of workers, especially unskilled workers in our country. Nevertheless, the fact of our economy does not fit the hypothesis of S-S theorem, so the influence of foreign trade has been altered. The growth of manufacture trade promoted the employment obviously, while did little to the improvement of wage ratio due to the huge unemployment and quick-increase labor supply.When regarded as a whole, the total welfare of labor force is decided by both the relative wage ratio and employment. Thus, the percent of total wage of Gross Domestic Product (called the percent of labor revenue) can reflect the welfare change of workers more accurately.In order to discern the influence of trade liberalization on the welfare of total and different skilled workers in manufacture sector, I focus on the percent of labor revenue and spread it in tow level. First, I analyze the relationship between the percent of labor revenue of total workers in manufacture and the trade liberalization, using the time-series data form 1980-2005; Second, I do the same analysis using the panel data of 22 branch industry of manufacture sector during 2001-2006.Considering the producers will adjust the inputs according their prices, I construct an empirical formula based on the long-cost function. Take the percent of labor revenue as the dependent variable, while the trade amount, the price of factor and some structure variable as explanation variable.The result of empirical study shows that the expanding of import and export of manufacture played a positive influence on the increase of the percent of labor revenue. Among which, the influence of export was more obviously. Further more, the positive influence of trade expressed mainly through the expanding of employment. The study on the different skilled workers obtained the same result: The expansion of trade of different-technology product played positive influence on the percent of labor revenue of different skilled workers and it’s more obviously in the low technical industry (unskilled labor intensive industry).更多还原