欧盟商品市场一体化的实证研究

【作者】 朱晓军；

【导师】 戴炳然；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 区域一体化是二战以后伴随经济全球化出现的,它体现了区域经济发展和区域空间结构演变的发展趋势。在各种区域一体化组织中,欧盟无疑是全球最为成熟、发展水平最高的区域一体化组织,成为推动区域经济协调发展和区域空间整合的范例。经过几十年的发展,欧洲共同市场从最初的六国集团演变成了一个拥有27个成员国的欧洲联盟。现在,欧盟的疆域已从欧洲西部的西班牙一直延伸到东部的波罗的海国家和保加利亚,人口多达4亿9千万,是全球第二大超级经济体和全球最大的统一市场。欧盟一直致力于实现内部商品、资本、服务和人员的自由流动,并且在一体化建设方面取得了区大成功,但是欧盟离一个真正意义上的单一市场还相距甚远。作为世界上最成功的区域一体化组织,欧盟内部仍然存在诸多的发展障碍,这阻碍了商品、资本、服务和人员的自由流动。边界效应是指边界对跨边界经济行为的影响,对于区域一体化组织来说,可以分为外部边界效应和内部边界效应。在深入借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,本文基于边界效应的视角,在引力模型的框架下测度了欧盟商品市场一体化的发展水平,定量考察了影响欧盟商品市场一体化的相关因素,探讨了欧盟为推进一体化所采取的各项政策措施,并总结了这些政策措施对我国发展的相关启示。全文包括七个部分:第一部分是导论。主要阐述了本文的选题意义、研究内容和研究方法,同时也指出了本文的创新点和不足之处。第二部分是评述相关文献,指出本文的研究切入点。一体化理论着重分析了一体化给成员国带来的资源配置效应,但理论色彩过重,实证研究略显不足。与之相比,引力模型的实证优势十分明显,是定量分析贸易流量,乃至区域经济一体化发展的坚实基础。边界效应则是通过对引力模型的引申和拓展发展而来的,成为定量研究区域一体化影响因素的比较好的方法。因此,本文确定以边界效应为视角,以引力模型为框架,构建计量分析的基础,测度欧盟商品市场一体化的发展水平和影响欧盟商品市场一体化水平的相关因素。第三部分是主要从统计学角度分析欧盟一体化的发展历程和发展障碍。首先,回顾和分析了欧盟一体化的建立和发展历程,重点针对商品市场一体化进程展开论述。其次,以统计数据定量分析了欧盟经济一体化的发展现状,特别是商品市场一体化的发展水平。最后,探讨了欧盟一体化发展的障碍。第四部分基于边界效应的基本视角,对欧盟一体化影响因素进行了实证分析。通过分析,我们得出以下几点结论:第一,欧盟25国的内部边界效应数值很大,反映了欧盟25国内部仍然存在诸多的发展障碍;第二,欧盟25国的内部边界效应小于国际边界效应,表明欧盟25个成员国之间的一体化水平高于其与外部国家的一体化水平;第三,欧盟15国的边界效应值远小于欧盟25国的边界效应值,特别是欧盟15国的国际边界效应值也远远小于欧盟25国的内部边界效应值,折射出东扩后的欧盟在融合和协调中所遇到的尴尬和困窘。第五部分基于边界效应的拓展视角,对欧盟一体化影响因素进行了实证分析。本章通过定量分析影响欧盟商品市场一体化水平的其他影响因素,得出结论如下:第一,国家间距离的扩大,对欧盟25国和欧盟15国的一体化水平有着显著的负面影响;第二,税收的引入,对欧盟25国和欧盟15国一体化水平的解释力度略微增大;第三,相同的语言文化环境,对欧盟25国和欧盟15国一体化水平的解释力度进一步提高;第四,人口变量的引入,对欧盟25国和欧盟15国一体化水平的解释力度显著提高;第五,语言文化对欧盟25国和欧盟15国一体化水平的影响程度不同。第六部分回顾和梳理了欧盟为推动一体化所采取的流通障碍的消除策略、区域融合政策的实施和欧盟东扩负面效应的治理等各项政策措施。特别针对边界效应的分析结果分析了欧盟东扩之后欧盟在税收制度、福利制度以及科技研发等方面进行的协调整合政策。第七部分是结论和启示。首先,归纳和总结了全文实证研究的相关结论;其次,梳理了欧盟为推动区域一体化发展所采取的相关措施,在此基础上探讨这些政策措施对我国经济发展和区域融合的借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Regional integration has been going hand in hand with globalization since World War II. It acts as a mirror to the trend in regional economic development and regional spatial structure evolution. The European Union(EU) is no doubt the best example of a well-developed regional integration organizations. After decades of development, the European common market evolved from the initial six-country group to a Union with 27 member states. It is the second biggest global economic super power and the biggest unified market. The EU commits itself to the free flow of goods, capital, service and personnel, and has achieved great success in integration. Nonetheless, the EU is far from a unified market in a real sense. As the most successful regional integration organization, EU still has many barriers hindering the free movements of goods, capital, service and personnel from within. Based on a review of previous research, this paper estimates EU’s level of integration in the commodity market from the border effect perspective, which refers to the effects on the cross-border economic activities and can be divided into external and internal border effects. It also quantitatively investigates the relevant factors affecting EU’s commodity market integration within the frame of gravitation model, discusses the various policies and measures adopted for European integration, and summarizes the implications of these policies and measures for China’s development.The paper consists of seven parts.The first part is the introduction part, mainly introducing the significance of the study, the research questions and methods, and points out the innovations and the limitations.The second part narrates and comments the connected references, and indicates the research perpective. The integration theory emphatically analyzes the resources relocation effect brought to the member states, but too much on the theory part and wanting empirical study. In contrast, gravitation model is a superior and solid foundation of quantitative analysis of trade and regional economic integration. The border effect is developed from gravitation model, and has turned out to be a better way to quantitatively investigate the influencing factors of regional integration. Therefore, this paper chooses to study the integration of goods market from the perspective of border effect.The third part statistically analyzes the development and the obstacles of European integration. It first reviews the establishment of the community and the development of the European integration, with its emphases on the analysis of goods market integration. Then, it analyzes the current economic situation of European integration, especially its level of integration by means of statistical study. Finally, the author discusses the obstacles hindering European integration.The fourth part carries on the empirical study of the factors influencing the European integration based on the theory of border effects. We find out that: 1) the values of internal border effects between EU’s 25 member states are quite big, indicating that obstacles exist among the Union preventing its further integration; 2) the values of the EU’s 25 internal border effects are smaller than that of international border effects between EU and other countries, indicating that the integration level among the Union’s 25 member states is higher than that with countries outside of the Union; 3) the values of EU 15 are far smaller than those of EU 25, the values of international border effects between the EU and other countries are also far smaller than those between EU 25’s internal border effects, reflecting the difficulty of further integration and coordination after EU’s eastward expansion.The fifth part is the empirical study of the factors influencing European integration. This chapter quantitatively analyzes other factors affecting EU’s level of integration in commodity market, and concludes: 1), the increase of distance between two member states has significantly negative influence on the integration levels of EU 25 and EU 15; 2), the introduction of tax can better explain the integration levels of EU 25 and EU 15; 3), the same language and culture environment further improves the explanation; 4), the introduction of the variable of population remarkably increases the power of explanation; 5), the degree of influence of linguistic culture has different influence on the integration level of EU 25 and EU 15.The sixth part reviews various strategies taken to get rid of the obstacles preventing free movements to promote integration, the implementation of regional cohesion policy and of policies to handle the negative effect of eastward expansion. With the research result of border effects in mind, the author pays special attention to the analysis of the coordination policies in the field of revenue system, welfare system and research and development.The last part is the conclusion and implications of the research. It summarizes the results of the study and the policies taken by the EU in promoting its regional integration, and discusses the implications of the EU’s policies to the China’s domestic regional integration and cohesion.更多还原