【作者】 阮哲明；

【导师】 潘海啸； 陆锡明；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 城市规划与设计， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 城市交通系统本身是一个十分复杂的大系统,与整个城市的社会、经济、自然、环境等有着密切的关系。交通建设本身又有很大的外部性,需要一种系统评价方法判断其规划方案的效率性和公平性。当前在城市交通规划整个过程中,在城市交通规划的各个阶段,人们都普遍认识到评价工作的重要性,但是交通规划的评价工作却是相对滞后的。论文在对国内外大量相关研究进行回顾和综述的基础上,进一步明确了研究任务和重点。首先,展开了基础理论研究。根据交通效益的来源,深入分析了效益和费用的构成。针对交通规划三个阶段的不同目标,选择三个有所差别的指标体系,确定不同的评价标准,完善了评价方法,为实现对交通规划全过程的系统、动态、分阶段的经济评价奠定了基础。其次,对评价关键技术进行研究。研究了如何用交通模型对交通规划中各项手段进行综合反映的方法,以及如何运用交通模型输出数据对评价指标进行量化的方法。第三,为强化研究结论的可信度和实用性,展开了实证研究。实证研究共分三个层次:一是,对不进行经济评价的规划现状进行研究,论证了规划阶段确实需要定量分析手段;二是,比较现有方法与本文方法在规划实施阶段的运用的评价过程及评价结论,论证了现有方法即使在规划实施阶段使用也存在一定问题,需要对其完善;三是以某城市交通规划为例,形成包括交通战略、交通规划及规划实施三阶段的完整评估案例,从实证角度分析了本文所提出的评价方法的可操作性。论文的最后部分总结了论文研究的主要成果和论文研究的创新点,并对进一步需要研究的内容提出了设想。论文具体在以下四个方面有所突破:一是,对交通效益和费用的构成进行深入分析,完善了评估要素;二是,对评价对象和评价时点的重新认识,提出了以交通系统为评价对象,对交通规划全过程进行分阶段的、系统的、动态的、经济评价;三是,针对城市交通规划三阶段不同的目标,建立了有所差别的评价指标体系,富有创意地提出了绿色效益指标、社会公平指标、社会经济适应性指标,前两项指标旨在为决策者提供交通规划评价的定量分析依据,第三项指标旨在弥补定量分析所不能覆盖的方面;四是,充分运用交通模型新进展成果,研究如何用交通模型反映交通建设、交通政策、交通管理各项手段,研究如何从模型中提炼具体数据,为系统分析交通效益提供了可能。综上所述,本文旨在原有经济评价技术基础上,借鉴国内外先进理论和实践,从系统分析角度完善原有方法,提出一套贯串于交通规划过程系统经济评价方法,为交通规划建设各阶段决策提供定量评价支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban traffic system construction, which is comprehensive and of large-scale, needs meticulous and scrutinized planning by considering both internal and external factors, such as social conditions, economic development, and natural & environmental conditions. Accordingly, it is imperative to build up comprehensive evaluation methods to estimate the efficiency and equity of the whole planning. However, the author finds that this work still lags behind even though people have realized its significance.By reviewing and making thorough analysis of related works from both home and abroad, the author mainly focuses on four parts in this paper. First, fundamental theory-based research is made. Analysis of the benefit and cost composition based on the traffic benefit sources sets up the strong support for the whole research. A three-index system framework, which sets different evaluation standards, not only optimizes the evaluation methods but also makes it possible for the step-by-step, dynamic and comprehensive economic evaluation during the entire planning process. Second, research in key evaluation skills is conducted, for example, how to build up the traffic model to reflect completely various measures taken in the planning process and how to quantify the evaluation indexes through output data provided by the model. Third, empirical research is carried out to reinforce the credibility and practicability of the research results. In this part, three subparts are discussed in detail. I. Contend the quantitative analysis is essential for the traffic planning by probing into the planning status II. Illustrate that present evaluation methods still need improving through comparative study of the methods in operation and the new methods introduced in this paper III. Testify the feasibility of the new evaluation methods by making a thorough evaluation research case based on a certain city’s traffic planning, covering estimating its traffic strategy, planning and operation. Finally, the author presents some conclusions & breakthroughs in this paper and lists some up-coming research tasks within the research perspective. With regard to the breakthroughs, four are made as follows: First, improve and perfect the evaluation factors through the analysis of benefit and cost composition; second, make step-by-step, dynamic and comprehensive economic evaluation by taking the traffic system as evaluation object; third, establish a three-index framework, including the environmental friendliness index, social fairness index, socioeconomic adaptation index, to better evaluate three distinct phases during the urban traffic planning; four, fully utilize the new traffic model development so as to completely reflect the status of traffic construction, policies and management and provide data for analysis.In summary, the author puts forward a set of economic evaluation methods based on the present economic evaluation skills and by absorbing related advanced theories and practices both from home and abroad. These methods attach great importance to the whole process of urban traffic planning and underpin the success of the entire planning.更多还原