突发公共事件应急管理研究

【作者】 张江华；

【导师】 朱道立；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 近年来自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生和社会安全等领域的突发公共事件频繁发生。面对危机的突发性和不确定性,我国现有的应急管理体系难以有效地应对各种突发公共事件,主要表现在:缺少有效的突发公共事件风险分析:缺少可操作的应急管理决策方案;缺少客观公正的应急能力评估等。因此,亟待对这些微观层面的问题进行创新性地研究。危险化学品事故是一类典型的突发公共事件,并且我国危险化学品事故呈明显上升趋势。考虑到危险化学品的特性,一旦发生事故将严重的危害到人民群众的生命和财产安全。因此,本文以危险化学品事故为例,依据应急管理的四阶段理论,从应急准备、应急预防、应急反应和应急能力建设四方面研究应急管理中涉及管理科学的一些微观层面问题,具体的研究内容如下:1、从事故率估计和事故后果模拟两个维度研究了危险化学品运输风险,其中应用信息扩散理论估计了危险化学品运输事故率,应用GIS等技术模拟分析了危险化学品运输事故后果,并构建了五阶段(准备阶段、风险识别、风险估计、风险评价和风险决策)的危险化学品运输风险管理框架。2、研究了时间依赖的危险化学品运输风险度量模型,通过时间依赖风险度量模型测算出交通网络中不同路段不同时间的风险值。在此基础上,研究了时间依赖网络中基于风险的两类最优运输调度问题,即分别为社会可接受风险约束下的运输调度问题和考虑成本和等待时间约束下的运输调度问题。3、研究了突发公共事件中有优先顺序的多源点和有容量限制的疏散问题,建立了多源点动态应急疏散模型,提出了基于离散时间的多源点K短路疏散的算法思路,设计了相应的实时动态算法,并针对突发危险化学品事故,研究了基于危险化学品扩散浓度的疏散问题。4、针对应急能力评估中专家判断的模糊性,应用自信度改进Delphi法得出了重要性矩阵,引入模糊层次分析法确定指标权重,总结出基于模糊层次分析法的应急能力评估的一般步骤。5、以危险化学品事故为背景设计了基于ArcGIS的突发公共事件应急管理辅助决策系统,概述了系统的整体架构,介绍了系统的主要功能,并提出了系统数据库的设计构想。本文不仅创新性的应用GIS进行危险化学品运输风险分析,提出动态应急管理决策方法,而且在模型和算法方面也有新突破,例如:扩展了度量风险的期望损失模型,建立了时间依赖的危险化学品运输风险度量模型;建立了多源点动态应急疏散模型等。本文的研究对于预防或减少事故的发生,实现应急管理的快速、高效、科学决策,保护人民群众的生命和财产安全有着重要的现实意义,并且对研究其他类型的突发公共事件应急管理具有很好的参考借鉴作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recently year public emergencies such as natural disasters, accidents disasters, public sanitation and social securities occur frequently. Facing the outburst and uncertainty of crisis, the existing emergency management system in China is unable to deal with various public emergencies effectively, which means lacking effective risk analysis of public emergencies, lacking operable emergency management decision plan and lacking objective and fair assessment of the emergency capabilities. Therefore, it is urgent to do innovative study on those micro-level problems.Dangerous chemical accident is one typical public emergency, especially in China where dangerous chemical accident has been increasing recently. Due to characteristics of dangerous chemical, it will result in seriously harm to human beings’ safety and property. Therefore, according to the four phase’s theory of emergency management, taking dangerous chemical accident for example, from emergency preparation, prevention, response and capacity-building four aspects, this paper studies decision issues about management science in micro-level of emergency management. The main contents are listed as follows:1. Analyze transportation risk of dangerous chemical from accident rate estimation and result simulation two dimensions. We use information diffuse theory to estimate the transportation accident rate of dangerous chemical, use GIS to simulate transportation accident result of dangerous chemical and build a five- phase risk management frame which includes risk preparation, recognition, estimation, evaluation and decision.2. Study the time-dependent transportation risk measure model of dangerous chemical, based on which measure the risk value of different route and time in transportation network. Study two types of time-dependent optimal transportation scheduling problems based on risk including two problems under constraint of society acceptance and under constraint of cost and waiting time. 3. Study the evacuation problem of multi-source with the order of priority as well as the capacity constraints in public emergencies. Built dynamic emergency evacuation model of multi-sources, illustrate a novel algorithm idea based on discrete time multi-sources K-shortest route parallel processing of the evacuation process, and design dynamic algorithm. We also study the evacuation problem based on concentration of dangerous chemical aiming at emergency dangerous chemical accident.4. Introduce the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight due to the fuzzy estimate from expert s in emergency capacity evaluation, apply the concept of the rate of self-confidence to improve Delphi for determining the weightiness matrix and bring forward the general procedures based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to evaluate emergency capacity.5. Design emergency management expert decision support system based on ArcGIS of dangerous chemical transportation accident, illustrate the whole organization of the system, introduce main functions of this system and propose a construction of database system.We not only analyze transportation risk of dangerous chemical innovatively with application of GIS, propose dynamic emergency management decision method, but also have breakthroughs in model and algorithm, such as building time-dependent risk measure model on dangerous chemical transportation to expand expected loss risk measure model, and establishing dynamic multi-source emergency evacuation model. This paper will have a significant meaning to prevent and reduce accidents, make rapid and efficient decision on emergency management and protect human beings’ safety and property. It also broaden prospect for other types of public emergency study.更多还原