虚拟经济与实体经济背离程度研究

【作者】 朱伟骅；

【导师】 张薰华；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 至今虚拟经济部门在全球范围内一直不断膨胀,虚拟经济对实体经济的影响日益重大。世界各国经济运行方式正经历深刻变化,由此引发了一系列新问题,比如应该怎样看待虚拟经济与实体经济的背离、虚拟资本定价、资产价格波动对实体经济的影响等。特别是伴随着金融部门迅速发展,金融危机频繁爆发,这些对经济体系造成了严重的负面冲击,对此,西方主流经济学一直无法给出有力的解释。这些事件促使我们不断去思索,探求这些偶然事件背后隐藏的必然性。为解决这些问题,国内外学者近年来开始新的尝试,开创了一个新的研究领域,即对虚拟资本与虚拟经济的创新研究,尤其在对虚拟资本与实体资本、虚拟经济与实体经济之间的关系的探讨上越来越深入。本人选择“虚拟经济与实体经济背离程度”这个研究领域,试图来验证由生产能力过剩驱动的现代工业革命和虚拟资本的爆炸式增长之间的关系,及其在中国经济发展中的呈现状况;分析国内投机泡沫存在的宏观与微观环境,着重探讨国内投机性泡沫可持续发展的条件。本文首先从资本运动出发,分析了实体资本、金融窖藏到虚拟资本的资本运动过程,导致了虚拟经济的产生、扩展与演变,重点探讨了虚拟资本运动的相对独立性与具体形式,分析了虚拟资本价值化积累到虚拟经济的路径。在第三章中重点通过实体经济动态效率与资产泡沫的理论模型,对实体经济与虚拟经济的关系进行了阐述,分析了虚拟经济与实体经济关系存在的背离趋势是常态,而背离到一定程度就导致经济泡沫的产生。本文在此的创新之一就是提出了数量层面背离与功能层面背离两个概念。由于虚拟经济与实体经济各自影响因素不同,导致存在着数量层面背离事实,在两者波动螺旋式发展过程到某一阶段,数量背离可能会导致功能背离,但是在过度背离泡沫崩溃后,仍会恢复为实体经济处于支配地位。然后论文重点通过宏观与微观两个角度分析影响我国虚拟经济与实体经济背离程度的影响因素。从宏观层面分析,采用了宏观层面的背离程度指标市场市盈率,对其进行了历史回顾和影响因素的分解研究,表明市场市盈率指标可以比较灵敏地反映股市价值与实体经济发展的背离程度,从而可以对我国股市泡沫有一个清晰的度量。为了对比研究,我们进行了对金融相关比率的简单的因素分解,并与市场市盈率进行比较。可以说明的是在中国经济增长的特殊背景下,货币化程度提高与实体经济快速增长作为主要推动力,我国虚拟经济的突飞猛进存在必然性,促进了国内虚拟经济与实体经济跳跃性的从数量背离到功能背离。从微观层面,论文围绕国内金融市场中投资者行为、公司治理与信息之间交织关系对交易量变化与资产泡沫的关系,分析投资者与公司行为是否促进了虚拟经济与实体经济的数量分离与功能背离。通过探讨微观层面的投资者行为、信息流的对交易量的影响,从而是否深远影响虚拟经济与实体经济的背离程度,分析了从数量背离到功能背离微观动力基础。从这部分影响因素的研究,可以看出投资者行为及其心理情绪在微观层面上对非理性泡沫的膨胀有着极为重大的影响,论文中专门对投资者情绪及其行为对虚拟经济的影响做进一步的深入研究分析,探讨了投资者心理对虚拟经济膨胀的影响。在第七章中论文通过对我国股票市场与虚拟经济的动态时间序列分析了背离程度变化,推断我国实体经济基本面对股票市场发展起着主导作用。实体经济对股市的冲击具有显著持续性,但是股票市场对实体经济的影响效果不是具有特别显著意义。随着我国股票市场进行了股改分置改革,包括很多国有支柱企业的上市,充实了股票市场价值,使得国内股市的“经济晴雨表”作用性正在逐步显现出来。总体而言,我国的股票市场发展基本是符合我国宏观经济面现状的,从长期数据看,国内股票市场发展是围绕实体经济增长趋势而上下波动的,但是就现阶段中国股票市场的发展速度而言,短期内股市会呈现背离实体经济的基本价值支撑层面,呈现非理性繁荣或者过度波动现象。最后,论文通过国际上典型资产泡沫案例的分析,寻找出对我国虚拟经济膨胀路径中如何避免覆辙的启示,并对我国过度背离产生的负面冲击进行了初步的分析。为了避免这样的不良后果,从而论文对我国资产泡沫是否具备可持续性条件进行了探讨。我们可以从论文分析中得到以下结论。心理因素内在的影响着虚拟经济与实体经济的背离程度及其持续性,不同投资者的交易策略博弈以及短期主义行为促进了虚拟资本价格泡沫的膨胀。而信息披露方上市公司管理层则由于基于公司声誉与管理层私人利益,对业绩进行操控与盈余管理,为股价膨胀提供虚假业绩支撑。国内中小投资者具有严重的市场情绪化导向,市场中存在的投资者正反馈效应机制,成为了投机性泡沫产生的内在机制。由于国内现阶段股票市场短期化行为显著,起到了财富再分配的作用,但是未能充分发挥甚至是忽略了优化资源配置、促进实体经济发展的功能。若不能及时遏制,容易产生“黑洞效应”,投资者的资金资源只是被股票市场吸进去,而没有发挥应有的作用。总而言之,通过对国内金融部门与实体部门发展环境的分析,我国投机性泡沫的可持续发展条件尚不具备。随着技术进步与资金积累,虚拟经济与实体背离程度是呈现波动式螺旋发展的。在技术革命推动生产力进步之前,金融相关率是局限在一定范围内的,虚拟经济受制于实体经济基础,不会偏离过度,过度背离会随着泡沫崩溃而回归基础价值。某一阶段数量背离导致功能背离,虚拟经济呈现支配地位,在过度背离泡沫崩溃后,回复为实体经济支配地位,两者关系随着生产力发展而呈现支配地位互动的发展路径。本文最后针对促进虚拟经济与实体经济适度发展提出部分政策建议。建议重点促进国内股票市场与实体经济的协调发展,并维护投机性泡沫可持续发展,并提高政府监管水平与加强投资者保护。对于金融市场效率,货币财政政策必须在满足金融市场和实体经济的要求间取得微妙的平衡;要大力推进虚拟经济各个子市场和谐发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fictitious economy sector has been swelling in the world up to now, and fictitious economy has great increasing influence upon the real economy. As about the prcing of fictitious capital, the deviation or decoupling of the financial sector from the real economy, and the influence of fictitious economy, these are a series of problem we must face and western economy has no reasonable answers now. While lots of financial crisis have outbroken in the world, many schlors try to solve these academic problems, so I select this frontier subject on decoupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy, and I try to find proof on the connection between modern Industrial Revolution driven by over procduction capacity and explosive growth of fictitious capital in China. And I want to analysize the macroscopical and microscopic aspects of speculative bubbles, and emphatically to discuss the conditions of sustainable development of domestic fictitious economy.This doctoral dissertation begins with the movement of capital, firstly I analylize the movement process among real capital, financial hoarding and fictitious capital, which bring about the formation, expansion and evolvement of fictitious economy. In chpter 3 the paper expounds the theoretical model of dynamic efficiency of real economy and the effect of asset bubble, and discusses the relation of real economy and the fictitious economy. Along with the productivity development, the decouling becomes the normal behaviour. I raise two new conceptions in this charper, which are quantitative decouling and functional decoupling. The quantitative decouling results in functional decoupling and the functional decoupling leads to quantitative decouling more than ever.Then this doctoral dissertation analysizses the influencing factors of decoupling of real economy from the fictitious economy from both macroscopical and microscopic angle in the following two charpers. From the macroscopical angle, I decompose the Price Earnings Ratio, which is taken as the macro index of decoupling. I find that the PER can sensiblely reflect the deviation between the real economy from the fictitious economy and articulately measure the bubble level. Comparatively, I decompose the Financial Interrelation Ratio. I conclude that monetization together with real economy growth is the main driving force of fictitious economy explosion in China, which promote the quantitative decoulping to functional decoupling.From the microscopic angle, I discuss the relations among investor behavior, corporate governance and information, which leads to the speculative bubbles and decoupling. And I analyze the power basis of the process from quantitative decoulping to functional decoupling. Th paper finds that investor behavior with psychological factor has great effects upon irrational bubble, so I specially discuss the influence of investor sentimation upon the fictitious economy inflation.In charpter 7 the paper analyzes the dynamic decoupling of the fictitious economyfrom the real economy. The fundenmentals of real economy can play a leading role upon the stock market. And the real economy has significantly persistent impulse on stock market in China, but Contrarily stock market has no such influnce upon the real economy. After stock-split reform in China, the business barometer of stock market is gradually showing itself. Totally, domestic stock market fluctuates around the real economy growth trend in the long run, but for the present time the stock market deviates from real economy, which results in over volatility or irrational exuberance.Finally, the paper seeks the revelation for the track of the fictitious economy inflation in China, from the classical asset bubble events of other main countries. And I give a preliminary analysis of negaticve shock from the serious decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy. So the paper probes into the sustainable conditions of asset bubble in China, escaping from those negative influences.We can conclude from this doctoral dissertation, psychological factor of investor intrisiclly influence the decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy, different investors’ trading strategies and short termism behaviors promote the expansion of the fictitious capital. And the management of listed companies manipulates the performance and earnings to sustain the asset bubble of their stock price, for their private interests. At present, positive feedback mechanism of domestic investors from their sentimental guidance, become the internal process of asset bubble. The domestic sock market has not fully developed the function of optimal resource allocation and promotiong of real economy, only played a role of wealth redistribution, which leaded to the black hole effect, so the stcok market has merely absorbed the capital from the real economy ,but has not play the proper role.In a word, the sustainable conditions of asset bubble are still not available, after the examination of financial sector and real sector in China. As the techonology develops and capital accumulates, the decloupling of the fictitious economy from the real economy will spirally develop. Before new techonolgy promotes the productivity, the Financial Interrelation Ratio will limit itself to some extent,and the fictitious economy keep sunder the thumb of the real economy. If the fictitious economy deviateed excessively from the real economy, the asset buble would collapse, and return to fundenmentals. In some period, the fictitious economy may dormate the real economy, because the functional decoupling from the quantative decoupling, but after the buble collapse, the real economy dormates again.This paper gives some suggestion upon the development of fictitious economy and real economy. The government regulatory devision should pay attention to the harmonious development between fictitious economy and real economy, and stick up for the sustainable development of speculative bubles .And the government should enhance the regulatory level and intensify investor protection. As about the mfinancila market efficieny, the monetary and fiscal policy should make fine-drawn balance between financial sector and the real sector. And the government should promote the full development of all financial market division更多还原