德国公共养老保险体制改革的经济学分析

【作者】 徐聪；

【导师】 戴炳然；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 由于人口老龄化等的影响,对公共养老金体系改革的讨论由来已久,各国建立有效的公共养老金体系的尝试各不相同,效果也存在差异。德国的公共养老金体系同样面临危机,关于现收现付制与基金积累制的讨论历时长久,但并未得出一个最终为各方所认可的方案。而且学术界的讨论大部分都集中在对现收现付制与基金积累制的取舍上。基于高昂的转轨成本,德国公共养老金体系从现收现付制向基金积累制转轨这一方案在目前的情形下不太可行,德国的现届政府也不看好转轨的前景。在现行的现收现付制公共养老金体系的框架下,讨论公共养老金体系体制内的修补已迫在眉睫。这即是本文研究德国公共养老金体系改革的切入点,即德国公共养老金体系在现收现付制内部的实行改革。本文分为三部分共九章。第一部分包括第一章、第二章、第三章和第四章,剖析了养老金理论的发展以及德国养老金体系改革的历史与现实。第一章导言,将讨论的问题引出,并界定了本文的研究方法、论文构架,归纳主要的创新观点。第二章简要回顾了养老金理论的发展历程,以及关于从现收现付制向基金积累制的讨论,最后引入了德国学术界对公共养老金体系的讨论。第三章对德国养老金的历史作了回顾。第四章介绍了德国公共养老金体系的现状,并分析了近十几年来科尔、施罗德以及墨克尔等历届政府的改革尝试。以第一部分的探讨作为基础,引入了第二部分在德国现收现付制内部进行改革的研究。第二部分包括第五章、第六章、第七章和第八章。第五章运用叠代模型,不定生命预期的模型讨论了保持固定的缴费率不变以及保持固定的养老金水平不变这两种方法对福利以及对成本分担问题产生的影响。并结合德国近几年来养老金体系的改革实践讨论了改革过程中实际生成的成本分担。第六章运用用经济增长理论分析Riester Rente这一政策的合理性,然后对RiesterRente的补贴效应进行分析。第七章由对俾斯麦模式和贝弗里奇模式出发,讨论了基本养老金体系这一种可能的改革方向,并以此为基础评价了德国现在正在实施的“以需求为导向的基础养老保险”体系。第九章介绍了德国养老金体系其他的改革建议。第三部分包括第九章,引出全文结论与结束语,作为全文的总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the ageing of the people,the reform of the public pension system has been long discussed.Countries have tried many ways and the results are very different.German is also faced with the same problem.The discussion about the transition from a Pay-As-You-Go system to a Fully-funded system has in German a long history but the academy has not agreed on a solution.From the reform programs proposed by economic schools and economic organizations,we see that almost all of them have paid special attention on the transition from a Pay-As-You-Go system to a Fully-funded system.Considering the high transition cost,a complete transition from a Pay-As-You-Go system to a Fully-funded system is at present unreasonable,which is also not accepted by the Germany government.The reform in the Pay-As-You-Go scheme is the research subject of this paper.This paper is organized with 3 parts -- 9 chapters as follows:PartsⅠincludes Chapter 1,Chapter 2,Chapter3 and Chapter4.Chapter 1 Introduction,the paper introduces its research subject - firstly the background of the research is described.Then,the study method and thesis framework and primary innovative assertions of this paper are discussed.Chapter 2,chapter 3 and chapter 4,establish the academic and practical analysis foundation,from the historical development process and academic research,give a survey on general pension scheme.Among them,the chapter 2 gives a survey on many published studies and examines the main points of their view.Then the Germany studies on the pension system are introduced.Chapter 3 reviews the historical development process of German pension scheme.Chapter 4 studies on the German pension scheme and analyses the reform tries of Kohl-,Schr(?)der- and Merkel-government.On the basic of the study of partⅠ,PartⅡ(chapter 5,chapter 6,chapter 7 and chapter 8) systemically analyzes the Measures of Germany reform in the Pay-As-You-Go scheme. Using the overlapping generations model,chapter 5 tries to explain the effects on the cost sharing of two methods:constant contribution rate and constant discount rate. Combined with the Germany reform praxis in the last years is the cost sharing in the reform process examined.Chapter 6 discusses the Rationality of the "Riester Rente" with the theory of economy growth.Then the analysis about the subsidies.Considering the Bismarck Model and Beveridge Model is the basic pension model discussed.And on this basis the Germany measures "Basic security demand" is analyzed and evaluated.Chapter 8 studies on other reform suggestions of the German pension system.PartⅢ(chapter 9 ) summarizes the paper conclusions,as the last chapter of the whole paper.更多还原