中国式分权、内生的财政政策与宏观经济稳定：理论与实证

【作者】 方红生；

【导师】 张军；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 西方经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文试图为中国政府构造一个有利于科学发展的宏观调控体系框架。其中理论框架是通过回答以下三个基本问题的方式完成的。第一个基本问题是面对宏观经济不稳定,一个仁慈性政府应该采取什么样的政策组合?第二个基本问题是中国地方政府为什么会采用不利于宏观经济稳定的扩张偏向的财政政策?第三个基本问题是如何尽可能的确保中国地方政府象一个仁慈性政府一样行动?第2章通过梳理和评述价格水平决定的财政理论及其政策主张对第一个基本问题做出了回答。即一个仁慈性政府在正常时期下,一般应采用积极型货币政策与局部李嘉图财政政策的组合;在非正常时期下,应采用被动型货币政策与非李嘉图财政政策的组合。第5章通过梳理和借鉴相关研究文献提出了一个理论假说,该假说认为中国扩张偏向的财政政策就是中国式分权的治理模式和缺乏良好的制度约束互动的一个可以解释的结果。这就回答了第二个基本问题。第6章主要从改革中国式分权的治理模式、修改《预算法》和提高财政透明度三个方面试图使中国地方政府尽可能象一个仁慈性政府一样行动。其中改革中国式分权的治理模式的一个思路是采用一个以经济稳定优先并兼顾民意的政绩考核机制。然而,本文认为一个有效的有利于科学发展的宏观调控体系框架应有其相应的实证基础。因此,本文对价格水平决定的财政理论和扩张偏向的财政政策的理论假说分别进行了检验,实证结果表明两大理论都很好的通过了验证。具体的说,第3章根据Sala的VAR发现,实际利率对于一单位的实际税收正向冲击的反应基本为正;进一步地通过Kim的SVAR,我们不仅发现了通胀和通缩的交替过程,而且还发现了扩张和衰退的交替过程。这些发现与识别价格水平决定的财政理论的条件完全一致。第5章通过构造中国式分权和制度约束的代理变量并利用1994-2004年度的地区非平衡面板数据和Probit模型方法发现,政府竞争对财政政策扩张偏向的边际影响是反腐败力度的递减函数。除此之外,本文还探讨了中国“缩长”之谜的可信谜底,认为价格水平决定的财政理论可以从政策搭配的角度丰富更有解释力的总需求不足说。这意味着合理的政策搭配是多么的重要。更多还原

【Abstract】 It tries to construct a Macro-Control framework to be beneficial to scientific development for Chinese government, whose theoretical framework is constructed by answering three basic problems as follows. The first one is, when confronted with macroeconomic destability, what kinds of policy mix a benevolent government should adopt? The second one is, why would Chinese local government adopt expansion-biased fiscal policy not to be beneficial to macroeconomic stability? The third one is, how should we ensure that Chinese local government would act as a benevolent government?Through surveying the fiscal theory of price level and its policy suggestions, Chapter 2 answers the first problem, that is, a benevolent government should generally adopt a policy mix of active monetary policy and local Ricardian fiscal policy in normal times; a policy mix of passive monetary policy and non-Ricardian fiscal policy in abnormal times.Based on the literatures concerning the theme, Chapter 5 provides a theoretical hypothesis that expansion-biased fiscal policy is interactive outcome of Chinese-Style decentralization and deficient institutional constraints. It is a key of the second problem.Chapter 6 tries to make Chinese local government act as a belevolent government from the three dimentions repectively, changing governance mode of Chinese style decentralization, revising Budget Law and enhancing fiscal transparency. We suggest central government should adopt political performance assessment mechanisms that economic stability is priority and the public’s demand should also be taken into consideration.However, it thinks that an effective Macro-Control framework should have its empirical foundation. Therefore, it tests FTPL’s applicability in China and expansion-biased fiscal policy hypothesis respectively. Empirical results show that each theory has been verified well. Concretely speaking, according to Sala’s VAR and Kim’s SVAR , Chapter 3 finds the following formal empirical evidences that support FTPL from different perspectives , respectively, (1) in overwhelming majority of time, real interest rate responds to a positive shock of real revenue from tax positively;(2) there are significant reverses both inflation and output growth rate. Based on an annual unbalanced panel over the period of 1994-2004 and Probit model, Chapter 5 finds government competition’s marginal effect on expansion-biased fiscal policy is a diminishing function of anticorruption index.Besides, it also discusses credible key of deflation-growth puzzle in China and thinks that based-FTPL hypothesis may improve demand-deficiency hypothesis from policy-mix perspective. It shows that it is very important to have a reasonable policy mix.更多还原