外来压力与内部改革

【作者】 贺平；

【导师】 樊勇明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际政治， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 日美贸易摩擦贯穿于第二次世界大战以后日美关系的始终,并经历了逐步深化、逐步升级的发展过程。其发展轨迹表现为:摩擦的焦点由美国限制日本产品进入本国市场逐步转化为打破日本社会、经济结构的封闭性;摩擦的内容由牛肉、柑橘等产品或纺织、电信等行业内的个别摩擦逐步上升为涉及政治经济体制的整体争端;摩擦的领域逐渐由劳动密集型的低附加值产业向技术密集型、资本密集型的高附加值产业升级;单纯贸易领域的摩擦逐渐外溢至与贸易相关的汇率、金融、资本市场等其他经济领域;日美两国政府间的贸易谈判由双边的“规则导向型”谈判向“结果导向型”谈判发展,并逐渐转向多边和双边并重的“规则导向型”谈判。外部压力能否而且如何促进国内改革是本文透视战后日美贸易摩擦的重要切入点。双层博弈理论是研究日美贸易摩擦的核心理论范式。在日美贸易摩擦的处理方式上,日本表现出易于屈服于美国压力的特征,美国政府的态度和政策成为深刻影响日本经济发展战略和贸易政策的关键性因素。但是,事实还表明:在应对美国贸易外压的过程中,日本同时表现出消极应付和主动出击两方面的特征,即“反应性”和“战略性”并存。两者之间并不是截然对立的,而是在不同时期和不同层面各有侧重。外压的产生、作用类似于国际谈判中的第一层次,美国政府将国内保护主义压力传导至日本政府,双方通过对话、协商、谈判、申诉等形式进行意见交换和利益冲撞,形成初步的协议。与此同时,在日本国内,不同的利益集团、政府省厅、议员官僚协调立场,对是否以及在多大程度上支持上述对美谈判形成合意,从而缓解或进一步激化原有的外压,这是日美贸易摩擦的第二个层次。这两个过程相互交织,在外压和内压之间形成了动态的双层博弈。外压能否有效作用,其关键在于能否适应国内的改革要求和潜在的利益诉求。历史经验表明,当国外谈判压力与日本国内原本存在但无法发挥有效作用的改革需求相结合时,才能促使日本在国际谈判中采取相对合作的态度,并且逐步开放本国市场、放松国内规制、实施结构性调整。因此,美国外压在促进日本国内变革中具有重要的推动作用。从本国核心利益出发,日本也有效地借助了美国外力,加速了国内改革。本研究认为,日美贸易摩擦表现出“战略性贸易摩擦”的特征。日本作为新兴大国和贸易大国的迅速崛起,引起国际分工格局和利益分配格局的巨大变化。“战略性贸易摩擦”又具有长期性的特点,涵盖经贸交往的各个领域,其中的贸易摩擦、汇率摩擦和体制摩擦层层递进、渐次演变,其核心和归宿是体制之争。20世纪60年代至今的日美贸易摩擦与90年代之后的中美贸易摩擦在贸易战略、摩擦对象、争端演变等方面具有一定的相似性。对于美国市场的高度依赖、对美贸易失衡、美国经常帐户的整体逆差是双方发生对美贸易摩擦的首要肇端。但整体而言,中国面临的对美贸易摩擦具有非对抗性。在应对美国外压的过程中,如能充分利用双层博弈,可以有效缓解贸易摩擦,并能适时推进国内改革。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since World WarⅡJapan and the United States have been experiencing intensifying and escalating trade frictions. Its development can be summarized into the following tracks: the focus of frictions shifted from U.S. constrains on Japanese imports to the expansion of market access for U.S. goods and service in Japan; trade frictions within a single product (like beef, orange) or a single industry (like textile, telecommunication) escalated into a more comprehensive friction involving political and economic structures as a whole; the industries involving in the frictions developed from labor-intensive and low value-added ones to technology- and capital- intensive and high value-added ones; frictions in commodities and services overflowed to other economic fields in Japan like yen-dollar exchange rate, financial deregulation, and capital market; and the pattern of Japan-U.S. trade negotiations changed from a bilateral "rule-oriented" style to a "result-oriented" style and finally to a "bilateral plus multilateral" "rule-based" style.Whether and how the foreign pressure (gaiatsu) could become a driving force for Japan’s domestic reforms is an important perspective for the research of Japan-U.S. trade frictions. The theory of two-level games is a central paradigm for this analysis. Japan was prone to succumb to U.S. gaiatsu when handling its trade frictions with the U.S., and the attitudes and policies of U.S. government maintained as a critical factor in influencing Japan’s economic development strategy and trade policy. However, the reality showed that, in dealing with the U.S. gaiatsu, Japan’s performance was both reactive and active. Each of these two characteristics played a great role in certain periods and certain cases.The formation and operation of gaiatsu is like the first level game in international negotiations. The U.S. government transferred the domestic protectionist pressure to its Japanese counterpart, and later these two parties managed to reach a preliminary agreement after opinion exchange and interest conflict by means of dialogue, consultation, negotiation and complaint, to name just a few. At the same time, different interest groups, governmental departments, Diet members and bureaucrats within Japan tried to coordinate their positions to decide whether and to what extent they would support the above-mentioned agreement. Due to this consensus, the previous gaiatsu was either mitigated or intensified. This process constitutes the second-level game. In sum, the interaction of gaistsu and naistsu forms a dynamic two-level game between Japan and the United States.The key of gaiatsu’ success lies in its ability to accommodate the domestic reformist requirements and potential interest appeals. The history demonstrates that, when foreign pressures could effectively integrate with Japan’s existing but hard-to-effect reformist demands, the Japanese government would pursue a more cooperative stance in international negotiations and gradually endeavor to open its market, speed up the domestic deregulation and implement structural adjustments. Therefore, the U.S. gaiatsu played an important role in promoting Japan’s domestic changes. Centered on the core national interests, Japan has effectively utilized U.S. gaiatsu to accelerate its domestic reforms.This research argues that, the Japan-U.S. trade friction can be classified as a "strategic trade friction". Japan’s rapid rising, as a new power and big trader, begets dramatic changes in international division-of-labor and interest distribution pattern. Moreover, the strategic trade friction ranges over various economic intercourses, within which the trade friction, interest-rate friction, and structural friction develop progressively while the structural revolution serves as the ultimate target.The Japan-U.S. trade frictions since 1960s and the Sino-U.S. trade frictions since 1990s share some similarities in terms of trade strategy, friction partner, and conflict courses. The main causes behind these two cases are the high dependency on the U.S. market, the serious trade unbalance with the U.S., and the general deficit of U.S. current account. However, the Sino-U.S. trade frictions are basically non-confrontational, which means that, if China could properly take advantage of the two-level game with the U.S., it would provide assistance in easing trade frictions and advancing China’s domestic reforms.更多还原