国际石油公司在世界石油体系中的影响和作用

【作者】 孙溯源；

【导师】 樊勇明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际政治， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 国际石油公司,作为跨国石油公司中的独特一类,日益成为重要的国际政治经济行为体。要从根本上认识国际石油公司在国际关系中的影响和作用,必须超越传统的以国家为主要研究对象的理论范式。为此,本文把国际石油公司看作独立的国际行为体,提出二元行为体(即国家与国际石油公司)的理论假设,并在此基础上构建了一个有关世界石油体系的分析框架,旨在从体系层次上探究国际石油公司的地位和作用。在本文所指的世界石油体系中,国际石油公司、产油国和消费国是构成体系的基本单位和主要行为体,它们通过三角相互依赖的互动模式,构成了鲜明的等级结构。世界石油体系是资源、权力和资本的复合体,体系的组织规则主要遵循现实主义的权力法则,体系结构最终由权力的分配决定。国际石油公司作为连接石油资源、国家权力和发达资本的桥梁,与产油国和消费国之间形成了不对称的三角相互依赖。国际石油公司和发达消费国因拥有丰富的物质性权力来源(如资金、技术、管理、营销、经济、军事等)和非物质性权力来源(即行为体在国际政治经济体系、国际金融体系、世界石油市场、国际贸易和分工体系中的优势地位)而居于体系权力结构的上层或中心地带。大多数产油国由于其权力来源主要依靠资源(原油),将资源性权力潜能转化为现实权力的能力有限,因此总体上处于体系权力结构的下层或边缘地带。“中心—外围”结构是世界石油体系权力结构的重要特征,但这种结构并不是一成不变的。尽管世界石油体系的稳定与否与三角相互依赖链条的具体状态直接相关,但相互依赖链条的断裂并不必然意味着体系的结构性变革。导致世界石油体系变革的根本动因在于体系权力结构的变化。三方行为体之间权力对比的结构性变化必然导致体系的变革,新的权力结构重塑三方行为体之间的相互依赖关系,并重新界定“中心—外围”结构的具体内涵。其中,国际石油公司是构成世界石油体系及其互动模式的关键施动者,在世界石油体系发展和变革的进程中发挥着举足轻重的影响力。1973年石油危机和冷战结束是国际石油公司影响世界石油体系的两个分水岭。从二战结束到1973年石油危机爆发前,国际石油公司(即所谓石油“七姊妹”)与发达消费国(主要是美国)在世界石油体系中建立并维持着体系权力核心的地位。1973年石油危机严重削弱了国际石油公司以及发达消费国的权力,改变了世界石油体系的权力结构,阿拉伯产油国在很大程度上“颠覆”了国际石油公司和美国的中心地位,或者说打破了它们对权力中心的垄断,成为体系的中心。但是这次体系结构变革的结果并不持久。从1973年到冷战结束这一阶段,产油国受制于权力资源的局限性,缺少原油之外的权力资源来支撑其体系中心的地位,欧佩克盛极而衰。与之相反,国际石油公司以及西方发达消费国,利用物质性和非物质性权力来源的优势,经过战略调整,权力得到提升,体系中心的地位得以恢复。其结果是,世界石油体系形成了权力分散化、中心多元化和多维复合相互依赖的基本格局。国际石油公司、发达消费国(主要是美国)和欧佩克主要成员(沙特阿拉伯)组成权力轴心,分享世界石油体系的中心地位,其它生产国和不发达消费国仍处于体系的边缘。冷战结束后,强势产油国俄罗斯和国家石油公司(即所谓石油“新七姐妹”)的出现,不仅对日益走向全球化的国际石油公司提出了挑战,而且给整个世界石油体系带来了冲击。世界石油体系的权力结构经历着新的转型。以发达消费国和国际石油公司为一方、强势产油国和国家石油公司为另一方的类似“两极”模式的权力结构正在形成。传统的以发达消费国和国际石油公司为中心、弱势产油国和不发达消费国为边缘的单一式“中心—外围”结构,有可能演变为以发达消费国和国际石油公司为一个中心、强势产油国和国家石油公司为另一个中心的复合式“双中心—外围”结构。与战后世界石油体系变革历程相对应的是,国际石油公司的角色从资源垄断者和市场控制者逐渐转变为资源寻求者和资金、技术与市场的提供者。尽管国际石油公司的角色不断演变,面临的挑战不断增多,但它们总是能够找到回应挑战的办法,并在回应挑战的过程中实现新的发展。从历史上看,作为拥有独特权力资源的国际行为体,国际石油公司始终是世界石油体系中不可或缺的成员和该体系得以维持和运转的支柱。更多还原

【Abstract】 International oil companies(IOCs),as a distinct kind of multinational oil companies, have been increasingly becoming important actors in international political economy.To essentially understand the role of IOCs in international relations,we should breakthrough the limitation of traditional theoretical paradigms,which primarily,even exclusively,focus on nation states.This article,therefore,takes IOCs as independent international actors, assumes that nation states and IOCs are dual actors,and puts forward an analytical framework about the world oil system to explore the role and impacts of IOCs.In what this study defines as the world oil system,IOCs,oil producing countries and oil consuming countries are three key kinds of units and actors.These actors interact with one another in a triangular interdependence and constitute a clear hierarchical structure. The world oil system is a combination of resource,power,and capital.Its ordering principle mainly complies with the realist theory of power,according to which the structure of the world oil system is ultimately determined by the distribution of power among actors.IOCs,as bridges linking oil resource,national power,and developed capital, form an asymmetric triangular interdependence with oil producing countries and oil consuming countries.On the one hand,IOCs,and developed consuming countries as well, lie at the top of the power structure or in the core of the world oil system,because of their advantages both in material power resources(such as capital,technology,management, marketing,economic and military capabilities,etc) and non-material power resources(i.e., their prestigious positions in the systems of international politics,economy,finance,oil market,trade,industry,and division of labors,etc).On the other hand,most oil producing countries generally lie at the bottom of the power structure and in the periphery of the world oil system,because their power resources mainly derive from their petroleum and their ability to transform their power potentials into real is quite limited.In a word,the power structure of the world oil system could be mainly characterized as the dichotomy of "core-periphery",although this structure is changing with times.The stability of the world oil system is directly related to the situation of triangular interdependence.However,the chain breaking of this interdependence does not necessarily lead to a structural change of the system.The fundamental factor that results in the transformation of the world oil system is the systemic change of its power structure.A sea change in the balance of power among the three actors will inevitably lead to a structural change of the world oil system.The newly formed power structure will reshape their triangular interdependence and redefine the "core-periphery" structure of the world oil system.It should be noted that IOCs play key roles in forming the structure of the world oil system and its model of interaction as well.And this is clearly evident in the process of the development and change of the world oil system.Two historical events,the 1973 Oil Crisis and the end of the Cold War,are two turning points differentiating the impacts of IOCs on the world oil system.From the end of WWII to the 1973 Oil Crisis,IOCs(i.e.,the so called "Seven Sisters"),together with developed consuming countries(mainly the USA),established and maintained their role as the power center of the world oil system.The 1973 Oil Crisis substantially changed the structure of the world oil system.IOCs and developed consuming countries were significantly weakened,with their power position in the world oil system being overturned by the Arabic oil producing countries.Or in other words,the Arabic oil producing countries entered into the core and broke the monopoly of the power center by both IOCs and developed consuming countries in the world oil system.However,the result of systemic structural change of this time was not lasting.During the period from 1973 to the end of the Cold War,some changes occurred in the world oil system.The OPEC countries fell from the power top of the world oil system to a lower level,because their ability to employ their power resources of petroleum was strictly limited and they lack other kinds of power resources besides oil so that they could not sustain their leading role in the world oil system.On the contrary,IOCs and developed oil producing countries quickly returned to the center of the world oil system,because they could make strategic adjustments and promote their power position by taking advantages of their both material and non-material power resources.As a result of this structural change,the world oil system became multi-centered,with power being decentralized in a multiple complex interdependence.In the "core-periphery" structure of the world oil system,the core was shared by IOCs,developed consuming countries(mainly the USA), and leading OPEC members(i.e.,Saudi Arabia),forming a kind of power axis,while other oil producing countries and undeveloped oil consuming countries still lied in the periphery.With the end of the Cold War,Russia as strong oil producing country and national oil companies(NOCs,the so called "New Seven Sisters") are emerging.They not only pose direct challenges to globalizing IOCs,but also bring great impacts on the world oil system. The power structure of the world oil system is undergoing a new round of transformation. A new pattern of power distribution in the core might be in forming,with developed consuming countries and IOCs as one pole,and strong oil producing countries and NOCs as another,similar to a bipolar model in international politics.The traditional power structure of "single core-periphery" might be evolving into a new type of "dual core-periphery".In the past structure,developed consuming countries and IOCs lie in the core,while weak oil producing countries and undeveloped oil consuming countries in the periphery.In the emerging structure,however,there might be two competing cores, developed consuming countries and IOCs plus strong oil producing countries and NOCs, even though the actors that occupy the periphery are the same.Along with the change of the world oil system since the end of WWII,IOCs have changed their role from petroleum monopolizer and market controller to resource seeker and provider of capital,technology,and market.Despite of their changing role and increasing challenges,IOCs can always manage to find solutions and further develop. Historically speaking,IOCs,as independent international actors with distinct power resources,are always indispensable players in the world oil system and key pillars that sustain its structure and keep it working.更多还原