转型国家银行改革及其对经济增长影响分析

【作者】 窦菲菲；

【导师】 庄起善；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在金融开放的全球背景下,转型国家的银行业经历了动荡、危机、巩固和稳定的过程。转型国家银行改革大多包含二级银行体系建立、资本重组和结构调整以及私有化三个阶段,在这个过程中,各个转型国家无论是改革方式、具体措施还是改革次序都大相径庭,改革成效也迥然不同。走在前列的中东欧国家尽管银行发展战略并不相同,但值得注意的是,这些国家最终采取了引进外国战略投资者作为完成银行私有化、推动经济增长的决定性策略。本文以外资银行进入作为切入点,对其促进经济增长的传导机制进行深入探讨,在此基础上,作者对转型国家外资银行进入对经济增长的影响做了理论研究和实证检验。最后总结出有价值的结论和实际借鉴意义。本文共分七章,各章的主要内容如下:导言部分介绍了本文选题的理论意义与现实意义,并对论文的研究方法、技术路线、主要创新和不足之处作了说明。第一章为文献综述,对金融改革、发展与经济增长的关系以及外资银行进入带来的经济效应做了系统的归纳和评述。第二章对中东欧和独联体国家的银行业改革过程作了具体、详尽的考察,并且对两类国家银行改革进行了比较。作者从实际数据和资料出发,对各个国家银行改革背景、初始条件改革措施以及改革成效进行了分阶段介绍,并总结了各国在银行业转型中的经验与教训。两类国家无论是转型的初始状态、策略与方式、速度以及效果都呈现出很大的差异性。本文从银行改革方式、私有化方案、银行所有权结构和外资战略以及政府在经济转型过程的作用这四个方面进行了详细对比。第三章分析转型国家银行结构演变与外资银行的进入,本章主要包括四个部分:第一部分介绍转型国家银行主导型金融体系结构的形成。作者认为,转型国家选择银行主导型的金融体系结构既有理论渊源,也是其经济发展阶段的必然结果。本章第二部分从“量”的角度考察波兰、捷克、匈牙利以及俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和乌克兰的银行结构。基于对大量数据的考察,我们发现转型国家银行结构发生了巨大变化:金融深度提高、银行规模扩大,市场集中度较高。第三部分从“质”的角度,分析转型国家银行体系稳定性情况。本文利用CAMEL指标框架,对中东欧和独联体六个国家银行体系稳定性状况作了系统分析和比较,结果表明,相比转型初期阶段,这些国家银行稳定性有了显著增强,并且中东欧国家银行稳定性总体上优于独联体国家。最后一部分介绍了转型国家外资银行的进入和银行部门所有权结构的变化。第四章讨论外资银行进入与经济增长传导机制。本章首先从外资银行本身的角度,考察其进入转型国家的战略和动机,并讨论外资银行战略与信贷行为的关系;接下来从东道国的角度,对外资的利弊作了分析;然后从理论上分析了外资银行促进东道国经济增长的五大传导机制——效率渠道、信贷渠道、公司治理、制度建设和信号效应;本章最后一节对外资银行进入转型国家的情况及其对经济增长的影响做了数据性描述和分析。第五章构建引入跨国银行因素的拉姆齐增长模型。在标准的拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯增长模型中,引入金融部门,用最优规划与控制论的方法求出稳态解,并用数值模拟的方法对模型的动态路径作了描述。结果表明,发展中国家的金融开放能够促进经济增长,但必须经过一段人均产出、消费和资本下降的过渡期。第六章对外资银行进入对转型国家经济增长的影响作了计量检验。本章采用面板数据分析的方法,检验了捷克、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚5个中东欧转型国家以及俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和乌克兰3个独联体国家外资银行进入对经济增长的短期和长期影响。实证结果显示,短期来看,外资银行数目比重增加对经济增长有促进作用,而外资银行资产比重增加对经济增长有负面影响。而长期检验的结果则揭示出经过一个时期之后,外资银行进入对经济增长的促进作用无论在数目比重还是资产比重变化上都开始显现出来。这说明外资银行进入对经济增长推动作用的发挥需要一个过程。第七章是全文的总结。本文的主要观点如下:首先,对于小国开放经济,银行私有化是银行改革过程中具有里程碑意义的步骤,引进外国战略投资者对私有化的最终完成具有决定性的作用;对于大国经济,核心银行控制在国家手中有利于银行业的稳定,同时,私有银行和外资银行的充分参与也促进了银行体系的竞争和整体效率的提升。其次,理论和实践都证明,外资银行进入能够促进经济增长,但正向效应需要一段时间才能显现出来。第三,除了银行本身的改革以外,相关制度建设和法律框架、监管体系的完善是转型过程保持稳定的重要条件,也是造成具体国家之间银行改革成效差异的重要原因。第四,转型时期,政府应该承担起制定正确的改革方案、推进制度建设、稳定宏观经济的责任。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the global environment of financial opening, banking sectors of transition countries have been undergone the course of recapitalization, restructuring, turbulence, stabilization, consolidation and development. The banking reforms in most transitioneconomies usually consist of three stages──setting up of two-tier banking system,recapitalization and restructuring, and privatization. Due to the different transition strategy as well as different measures taken and different sequence followed, transition countries got different outcome of transition. The advanced transition economies such as Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries rely on foreign strategic investors to finally complete their privatization and promote economic growth despite of different banking development strategies among these countries. From the perspective of foreign banks’ entry, the thesis discusses the five transmission channels through which foreign banks accelerate economic growth. And then makes a theoretical research and empirical test on economic effects of the entry of foreign banks. The author finally summarizes valuable conclusions and enlightenments for Chinese banking reform.This thesis comprises of 7 chapters, main content of each chapter is presented as follows:Introduction covers the theoretic and practical value of this thesis, researchmethod and technical route used in this thesis, definitions of relevant concepts, and also the main innovations and drawbacks of this thesis.Chapter 1 makes a review of the literature and makes systematic sum-up and comment on relation between financial reform, development and economic growth together with economic effect of foreign banks.Chapter 2 gives a detailed investigation of banking reform in CEE and Commonwealth of Independent State (CIS) countries. By use of the abundant and accurate data, the author make a staged research on the background, initial conditions, measures and outcome of the banking reform in each country. Experience and lessons of banking transition in these countries are also summarized in this chapter. These two categories of countries exhibit great differences among initial state, strategy, mode, speed and outcome of transition. Based on the previous context, this chapter gives comprehensive comparison of these CEE and CIS countries: (1) the manner of banking reform; (2) approach of privatization; (3) banking ownership structure; (4) the government role during transition.Chapter 3 analyzes the banking structure evolution together with the entry of foreign banks in transition countries. It covers four parts: first, it introduces the formation of bank-based financial structure in most transition countries. The author believes that the choice of bank-based financial structure by transition countries is not only the consequence of theory but also the results of certain economic development stage. Second, from the perspective of "quantity", it makes a universal study of the banking structure of Poland, Czech, Hungary, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, which disclosures that significant changes have taken place in these countries’ banking structure: financial depth increases, scale of banking sector expands and market concentration raises. Third, from the perspective of "quality", The thesis uses CAMEL index frame to systematically analyze and compare the stability of banking system of these six CEE and CIS countries. Results show that with respect to initial astages of transition, there’s a remarkable enhancement in these countries’ banking system stability and stability of CEE countries as a whole excels CIS countries. The final part of this chapter talks about the entry of foreign banks and consequent change of the banking sector ownership structure.Chapter 4 discusses the economic effect of foreign banks. The first section of this chapter reviews the strategy and motivation of foreign banks’ entry from the perspective of foreign banks themselves and discusses the relationship between strategy of foreign bank and their credit behavior. The next Section analyzes the advantage and disadvantage of foreign banks from the perspective of host countries. Section 3 gives the five transmission channels through which foreign banks accelerate economic growth: efficiency, credit volume, corporate governance, institution building and signal effects. The last section of this chapter uses practical data to describe and analyze the conditions and economic effect of foreign banks’ entry into transition countries. From this it can be seen roughly that foreign banks do contribute to economic growth of transition countries by means of raising efficiency, accelerating credit volume, improving corporate governance and promoting institution building as well as strong signal effects.Chapter 5 constructs a Ramsey model combined with a finance sector. Based on a standard Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model (including household sector and manufacturers), we introduce a financial sector to analyze the well-being of domestic households. It uses optimization and optimal control approach to solve the steady value and uses numeric simulation to plot its dynamic path. Results show that financial opening in development countries can promote economic growth as well as consumption and capital per worker. However, these salubrious effects only come forth after a considerable period of time has elapsed.Chapter 6 makes econometric test of the impact of foreign banks entry on transition countries’ economic growth. This chapter uses panel data analysis to check both the long-term and short-term effects on economic growth of five CEE countries ( Czech, Hungary, Poland, Slovak, Slovenia) and three CIE countries( Russia, Belarus and Ukraine). The results show that increase in number share of foreign banks has positive effect on economic growth in short term, while increase in capital share of foreign banks has negative effect on economic growth. Long term results show that after a period time the positive effect on economic growth of foreign banks entry starts to appear both through number share and capital share. It shows that there need to be a period of time before the positive effect of foreign banks entry to take place.Chapter 7 is the sum-up of the thesis. The main standpoints of this thesis are as follows: firstly, for a small open economy, bank privatization is the milestone of the banking reform and foreign strategic investors has decisive effect on finalization of privatization progress; for major economy, state-owned banks are responsible for stability of banking system. Meanwhile, private banks and foreign banks promote the competition and efficiency of the banking system as well. Secondly, theory and practice both show that financial opening can accelerate economic growth, but positive effect appears only after a period of time. Thirdly, besides banking reform, relative institution building and improvement of legal framework and supervision system are the important conditions for stabilizing the transition progress and are also the main reasons causing difference of reforming results. Finally, during the transition, the government should take on the responsibility of building correct reform strategy, promoting institution building and stabilizing macro economy.更多还原