资本流动对区域经济差距的影响研究

【作者】 彭文斌；

【导师】 张晖明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 政治经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 经济的发展不开资本、劳动力、技术等生产要素,同样,区域经济发展受制于要素禀赋和要素聚集整合能力,而这些要素的供给可以在区域内部实现,也可以通过要素流动而获得。因而,这些要素的流动对于区域经济差距都将产生重大影响。不论是从短期,还是从长期来看,资本流动都是影响区域经济差距变化的重要因素之一。囿于传统经济理论,对资本流动理解的简单化,认为只是存在于国家之间,因而资本流动即国际资本流动,致使对资本在国内不同区域之间的流动关注研究不够,必然对区域经济发展水平能力差异的分析难以深入,从而在实践上造成了对资本流动发挥重要作用的金融体制改革严重滞后于其他经济体制改革的状况。在传统的中国计划经济体制下,资本(资金)的配置调拨只能是依靠中央计划当局的安排,民间自发的资金和外资的流动受到限制,难以产生大的影响,因而被忽略。但改革开放以后,中国实行了市场导向型的经济体制改革,资本流动的这种状况很快得到了改变。而中国区域经济差距不断扩大和资本流动导致的资本分布不均一直是经济学家们致力研究的问题。因此,本文选择资本流动对区域经济差距进行详尽的研究,无论是对促进中国区域经济发展构建和谐社会还是对缩小区域经济差距都会有重要的现实意义和理论意义。本文主要针对中国区域经济差距影响因素出现的新变化,系统研究和探讨了资本流动与区域经济差距之间的关系。其研究的思路是,运用主因子分析得出资本流动因素是影响区域经济差距的主因子结论。在市场经济体制中,一方面,资本流动会引起资本的区域配置,从而导致其他的资源再配置,另一方面,适应市场经济工业化的要求,资本流动也会使产业在不同区域聚集,而产业聚集将提高资本要素的再配置效率。基于此,本文从资源再配置和产业聚集的两个视角构建了资本流动对区域经济差距影响的动力机制,应用数理模型从理论上对这两个动力机制展开了系统的研究,并揭示资本流动影响区域经济差距的机理和规律。同时,本文在理论研究的基础上,利用1979-2006年中国三大区域的相关数据,实证分析了资源再配置效应与区域经济差距的关系、产业聚集对区域经济差距的影响,并对资本流动与区域经济差距的关系作了详细的检验。最后,从有利于缩小区域经济差距,实现区域经济协调发展,本文从资本流动的角度,提出了有针对性的政策建议。具体而言,本文的研究主要涉及了以下几个方面的内容:(一)导论。本部分首先交代了本文研究的意义,并界定了相关基本概念,然后介绍了本文研究的基本思路与方法,以及论文的创新点和结构安排。(二)资本流动与区域经济差距的研究综述。本部分主要对国内外资本理论、资本流动理论以及区域经济差距的相关理论与实证研究作了较为系统地归纳、整理和评述,从而疏理了相关理论的发展历程以及有关实证研究的方法与结论;在上述分析基础上,进一步对国内外有关资本流动对区域经济差距影响的相关文献研究做了总结。从而为全文的研究奠定了理论基础。(三)区域经济差距的资本流动因素分析。本部分通过研究表明,自改革开放以来,中国东中西部三大区域间经济差距呈逐年扩大的趋势。同时,运用主因子分析方法,在资本流动、产业结构、劳动力、政策区位四个影响区域经济差距的因素中,得到了资本流动因素是影响区域经济差距的主因子结论。并利用中国1979-2006年的省级面板数据,从储蓄和投资的关系出发,探讨了资本的区域流动趋势。(四)资本流动对区域经济差距影响的动力机制:基于资源再配置视角。由于资本报酬率的高低引起资本在不同区域的流动,从而导致区域其它资源要素包括劳动力、技术生产要素流动,进而影响资本流出地区与流入地区的区域经济发展速度。实证表明东部地区资本再配置效应要高于中西部地区,并且东部地区资本再配置效应与区域经济差距之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系,中西部地区资本流动再配置效应与区域经济差距之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。(五)资本流动对区域经济差距影响的动力机制:基于产业聚集视角。沿着资本流动——产业聚集——区域经济差距的传导,本文用核心——外围模型分析了这三者的传导影响机制。(1)资本报酬差异的产业聚集核心——外围模型。当贸易成本很低时,资本流动有利于企业在工资成本低的区域形成产业聚集。当贸易成本居中时,资本(进而产业)的移动存在多点短期均衡,但长期来看,这种均衡是不稳定的。当贸易成本很高时,资本流动有利于企业在市场规模较大的区域形成产业聚集。(2)上下游联系的产业聚集核心——外围模型。当贸易成本充分低时,垄断竞争的下游产业生产部门在工资率低的区域形成资本驱动型的产业聚集。当贸易成本很高时,垄断竞争的下游生产产业在市场规模较大区域形成资本驱动型的产业聚集,完全竞争的上游部门则聚集在另一区域。(3)产业集聚条件下区域经济增长的核心——外围模型。本文认为产业聚集越集中于一个区域,那么这个区域与另一个区域的经济差距也就越大。并且选取1979-2006年全国第二产业增加值指标、第三产业增加值指标和区域泰尔熵指标共同构建VAR模型,实证分析了产业聚集对区域经济差距的影响。(六)资本流动对三大区域间经济差距影响的实证研究。利用1979—2006年以及分年段的区际面板数据,对资本流动与区域经济差距的关系进行检验,实证结果显示:(1)资本流动是区域经济差距的格兰杰原因,而区域经济差距不是资本流动的格兰杰原因。并且,资本流动与区域经济差距之间存在着长期的关系。(2)不同渠道的资本流动对区域经济差距的影响不同。全社会固定资产投资、资本形成总额与区域经济差距成正相关关系,而中央财政转移支付、实际利用外资金额、国家银行存贷款差与区域经济差距成负相关关系。在产业聚集条件下,第二产业增加值与区域经济差距成正相关关系,第三产业增加值与区域经济差距成负相关关系。(七)结论与政策建议。作为全文的结束部分,本部分对前面的研究结果作了简要概括,并给出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economical development depends on elements of production such as capital, labor force, technology, etc. At the same time, richness or scarce of element and agglomeration conformity ability of element restrained regional economic development. The supplies of elements already may obtain in the regional interior, may also gain through the flowing of elements, but the flowing of elements will have the major influence on the regional economic gap. No matter, from short-term, in the long run, capital flow is one of important influences of regional economic gap. Constrained by the traditional economic theory, we understand capital flow simply that capital flow only exists between the country and become pronoun of international capital movement. we has insufficient research to capital flow between the domestic different regions, as a result, it is difficulty to analysis the development level of regional economy in ability difference. so that the monetary system which capital flow has influential role seriously lags in other reform of economic system in practice. In traditional planned economy system in China, the central authority only arrange the distribution of capital (fund), folk spontaneous fund and foreign capital is restricted, it is not bring tremendous influence, thus it is neglected. Since reform and openness, China implemented economic system reform in market direction, this situation of capital flow quickly change. Economists devote to study the question, which involved the expansion of regional economic gap and the inequality of capital distribution which caused capital flow in China.Therefore, this article has research on the influence of capital flow on regional economic gap,the research will have the important practical and the theoretic significance, regardless of to promote the regional economic development which construct harmonious society, to reduce the regional economic gap in China.To the new change of the factors which influence regional economic gap in China, this article makes a systematic study on the relationship between capital flow and the regional economic gap. Through the main factorial analysis on affecting the regional economic gap, the article obtain the factor of capital flow is the main factor. In market economy system, on the one hand, capital flow can cause region allocation of capital, thus causes other resources reallocation, on the other hand, in order to adapt market economy industrialization, capital flow will also cause industrial agglomeration in different regions, and industrial agglomeration will enhance allocative effects of capital.Based on this, this article has constructed the dynamical mechanism on influence capital flow on regional economic gap, the dynamical mechanism is disposed from two angles of resources reallocation and industrial agglomeration,and made a systematic study on the influence dynamical mechanism of capital flow on regional economic gap in the mathematical model, and reveals the function mechanism and the influence rule of capital flow on the regional economic gap. At the same time, in fundamental research’s foundation, using the 1979-2006’ correlation data Chinese three economic region in China, this article makes empirical studies on the relationship between the effect of resources reallocation and the regional economic gap, Moreover it analyzes the influences of the industrial agglomeration on the regional economic gap, and makes an careful examination on the relation between capital flow and the regional economic gap. Finally, in order to reducing the regional economic gap and realizing coordinated development of regional economies, this article has put forward some relative suggestions from the angle of capital flow.Specifically speaking, this article has mainly depicted the following aspects:1 Introduction. Firstly, This part has made out the significance of this article, and has explained the related basic concept, then introduced basic soul and method of this article, as well as paper innovation and structure arrangement.2 Researchful summary on capital flow and regional economic gap. This part systematically summed up the correlation theories and empirical studies mainly what be the capital theory of domestic and foreign, capital flow theory as well as the regional economic gap, thus coordinated development process of the correlative as well as the related empirical study method and conclusion.Based on the above analysis, the part further has made the summary of related literature in domestic and foreign to the influence capital flow on regional economic gap . Thus this part has formed the foundation of the full text research.3 The analysis of capital flow factor of regional economic gap. This part indicated through the research, three economic region gap has expansile tendency year by year since the reform and open policy in China. At the same time, this article chooses the factors which are capital flow, the industrial structure, the labor force, policy position, utilizes the main factorial analysis, draws the conclusion that the circulation of capital flow factor is the main factor which affects the regional economic gap. Moreover, using the 1979-2006’ provincial panel data in China, we has research the regional tendency of capital flow from the angle of deposit and the investment relations.4 The dynamical mechanism of influence of capital flow on regional economic gap: from the angle of resources reallocation. Because capital return rate causes capital flow in different regions, other resources including the labor force, the technology will flow, then the resources’ flow also will economic development of regions which capital flows out and flows in. The empirical studies indicated that the eastern region is higher than the mid region and western region in the effect of capital reallocation. More, between the effect of capital reallocation and the regional economic gap, there is the bidirectional Grainger causal relation in the eastern region, but there is the unidirectional Grainger causal relation in the mid region and western region.5 The dynamical mechanism of influence of capital flow on regional economic gap: from the angle of industrial agglomeration. Along the conduction way what is capital flow-industry agglomeration -regional economic gap, this article used the core -periphery model to analysis the conduction mechanism.(1)The industrial agglomeration’ core—periphery model of capital return difference. When trade cost is very low, capital flow is advantageous to the enterprise forms industrial agglomeration in the low cost region. When trade cost is mediacy, capital (then industry) flow has the multi-spot balance in short-term, but in long-term, this balanced is unstable. When trade cost is very high, capital flow is advantageous to the enterprise forms industrial agglomeration in the big market scale region. (2) The industrial agglomeration’ core—periphery model of upstream and downstream relation. When trade cost is fully low, the downstream industry production department of monopoly-competition form industrial agglomeration of capital driving in the low wage rate region. When trade cost is very high, the downstream production industry of monopoly-competition form industrial agglomeration of capital driving in the big market scale region, the upstream department of competition completely gather at another region.(3) The regional economies grow’ core—periphery model of industry agglomeration. This article thought that the industrial agglomeration is more centralized in a region, then this region and another region’s economic gap is also bigger. Selecting 1979-2006’ data such as the second industrial increment, third industry increment, regional Theil, the article constructed the VAR model in order to analysis empirically the influence of industry agglomeration on regional economic gap,6 The empirical research on the influence of capital flow on three regional economic gap. Using 1979-2006’ regional panel data, this article has examined the relations between capital flow and regional economic gap, the result indicted that: (1)Capital flow is the Grainger reason of regional economic gap, but the regional economic gap is not the Grainger reason of capital flow. And, there is the long-term relations between capital flow and regional economic gap.(2) Capital flow of different channel has different influence on regional economic gap. There is positive influence between the entire social fixed assets investment, the capital formation total amount and the regional economic gap, but There is negative influence between regional economic gap and the center level funds transfer payment, the actual using foreign capital amount, the difference between save and loan in State bank . Under the industrial agglomeration’ condition, the second industrial increment in value and the regional economic gap become correlational dependence, the third industry increment and regional economic gap become inverse correlation.7 Conclusion and policy suggestion. As the end of full text, this part has made the brief summary to the front findings, and has given the corresponding policy suggestion.更多还原