中美在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动之研究（1950年至今）

【作者】 陈宗权；

【导师】 吴心伯；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国际政治， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 鉴于朝鲜半岛问题对中国国家利益的重要意义和中美围绕朝鲜半岛问题所进行互动对两国关系的重大影响,对中美两国在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动过程进行系统、细致地研究是非常必要的。本论文以1950年至今中美在朝鲜半岛问题上的具体互动历程作为主要研究对象,旨在解决三个方面的问题:中美在朝鲜半岛问题上进行互动的演化过程、环境变量和互动力度变量对中美在朝鲜半岛问题上互动的影响,以及中美对朝鲜半岛政策和行为变化的原因。本文研究的特色主要有:在理论方面,本文借鉴现有国际关系理论中对“互动”概念的论述,创造性地构建了一套国家行为体互动的理论,并将这些理论运用于后文的经验分析;在文章结构方面,本文按照“环境变量分析→中美在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动过程→互动力度和中美互动中的‘满意行为’”的结构顺序展开分析;在逻辑方面,本文遵循“决策者形成对主要国家利益的认知→作出对朝鲜半岛政策和行为→影响中美在朝鲜半岛互动形式”的逻辑思路。本文共分为三大部分:绪论、正文(共五章)和结论。在绪论部分,笔者主要是界定研究对象,阐述研究意义,评估研究现状,提出研究思路,交待理论工具和研究方法,以及介绍本文的主要创新点和重难点。第一章是本文的理论构建。笔者先对国际关系理论中关于“互动”概念的论述作出概括,并指出这些论述的成就与不足;然后指出作为一种互动理论的博弈论为什么不适合本文的研究,并对本文所需要的理论进行定位;接着为本文设定两个相关的分析变量(环境变量和互动力度变量),并对“满意行为”的解释模式作出阐述;最后构建一套较为完整的国家行为体互动理论模式,包括界定“互动”概念、分析国家行为体互动的内在机理,以及对互动模式进行分类和定性等。第二章至第五章详细论述了自朝鲜战争至今中美两国在朝鲜半岛问题上进行互动的具体过程。在第二章,笔者先对朝鲜战争爆发前后的客观环境(主要是国际环境和中美关系背景环境)和中美两国决策者的心理环境作出探讨;然后具体论述中美在朝鲜战争中进行的一系列相互反应、相互作用的互动过程,并将这段时期内的中美互动称为“兵戎相见的冲突型互动”;接着论述中美在朝鲜战争期间的整体互动力度;最后,笔者运用“满意的行为”模式对中美在朝鲜战争互动中的一些决策和行为作出解释。第三章着重阐述从朝鲜战争结束到中美建交这段时期内中美关于朝鲜半岛问题的互动情况,并将这种互动界定为“相互威慑的冲突型互动”;同时还考察这段时期内的国际大环境、中美关系环境、中美决策者不同的认知情况、中美整体的互动力度和中美在朝鲜半岛上的互动力度等问题:最后对中美在朝鲜半岛进行相互威慑性互动中的“满意行为”作出阐释。第四章重点论述从中美建交到中韩建交这段时期内中美在朝鲜半岛问题上由冲突型互动向竞争型互动的转化过程,并探讨了影响中美互动形式的两个变量即环境变量和互动力度变量,最后用“满意的行为”模式对中美在互动转型中的一些行为作出解释。第五章着重探讨后冷战时代中美在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动情况。笔者同样按照前文设定的论述顺序,先对后冷战时代的国际大环境、中美关系环境和两国决策者的心理环境作出考察;然后论述冷战结束至今中美在朝鲜半岛问题(特别是朝核问题)上的互动情形;接着阐述这段时期内中美的整体互动力度和两国在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动力度问题:最后,用“满意的行为”模式对中美在朝鲜半岛上的一些政策和行为作出解释。论文将这段时期内中美在朝鲜半岛问题上的互动界定为“竞争—合作型互动”。在结论部分,笔者从互动理论的作用及应用、本文研究的政策启示和本课题后续研究的意义等三个方面来对全文作出总结性的概括和提炼。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper explores the Sino-US interaction-process on the Korean issue since 1950’s, trying to answer the following questions in particular: how dose the Sino-US interaction-process on the Korean issue evolve? How the variables in the environment and the interaction intensity affect this process? Why the both parties change their policies and behavior?This paper is characterized by the following: theoretically, it constructs a theory on interaction among states, the approach empirical analysis in this paper; structurally, this paper analyzes on the structure of "variables in the environment - Sino-US interaction process - interaction’s intensity and satisfying-behavior"; logically, the paper follows the logic of "policy-makers cognizing the primary national interests -making policies and behaving - affecting the model of Sino-US interaction-process on the Korean issue.The Introduction defines the research object and approach and addresses what is creative and difficult in the paper.Chapter One deals with the construction of theories. It summarizes the conceptions of "interaction" of IR theories and explains why, the game theory, as an interaction theory, can not be adopted to the paper and defines the approach in the paper. This chapter designs two analytical variables, namely Circumstances and Interaction intensities, and elaborates on the Satisfying Behavior Model in the case of Sino-US interaction. At last, this chapter builds a complete Interaction Theories of nation-actors by defining "Interaction", analyzing the interaction-mechanism between actors, and classifying Interaction Models.Chapter Two examines the objective and subjective circumstances around Korean War Period (on the international background and that of Sino-US relations) and psychological environment of policy-makers in the two countries. It explores the series of Sino-US interaction during the Korean War, namely, "Martial Interaction of Conflict". And then, this chapter elaborates on the holistic Interaction intensities of the two countries and their interaction intensities in Korean War. Finally, it explains some behaviors of China and the U.S. in the war with Satisfying Behavior Model.Chapter Three focuses on Sino-US interaction processes on the Korean Peninsular from 1954 to 1978. It defines these interactions as "Deterrence Interaction of Conflict" class. At the same time, this chapter makes a detailed study on objective and subjective circumstances in this period, including the international context, Sino-U.S. relationship, and the two country leaders’ perception on each other. This chapter also elaborates the holistic Interaction Intensities and their interaction densities in this period and utilizes the Satisfying Behavior Model to explain the two countries’ behaviors related to the Korean issue.Chapter Four makes a detailed study on Sino-US interactions on the Korean issue from 1979 to 1992. It points out that the form of the two countries’ interactions had transformed from "Conflictive Interaction" to "Competitive Interaction" in this period. The current chapter also investigates the two variables (Circumstances and Interaction Densities) and makes use of the Satisfied Behavior Model to explain some of China and the U.S.’s behaviors in this case.Chapter Five focuses on Sino-US interactions on the Korea issue in the Post-Cold War era. It analyzes respectively the objective and subjective circumstances, the interaction-processes of the two countries, and their interaction intensities on the Korean issue. Finally, it explains the two countries’ behaviors during the Korean Nuclear Crisis with Satisfying Behavior Model. Sino-US interaction in this period is catalogued as "Competitive-Cooperative Interaction".The Conclusion summarizes functions and application of Interaction Theory in the paper, their revelations to policies and the meaning of a further study.更多还原