【作者】 傅辉；

【导师】 邹逸麟；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 历史地理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use-Cover Change,LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分,对全球环境变化与经济可持续发展具有重大影响,同时,受不同时空下的自然、人文相互作用制约。因此,高分辨率历史土地要素(不同类型土地数据、垦殖率等)序列的重建,对于认识土地利用变化规律,提高土地利用/土地变化研究精度,辨识人类活动对土地利用变化影响程度等,都具有极为重要的意义。由于目前尚无相对成功的LUCC研究集成案例问世,因而以百年尺度县级单位为研究对象的区域性LUCC动态信息获取、过程模拟和驱动机制、环境效应、重建等探讨,便成为中国研究区全球变化集成研究探索的重要成分。中国虽拥有各种历史土地数据记载,然而,由于这些数据在历史时期性质与功能不同,故不能直接作为研究的依据。尽管与其它历史文献的土地记载相比,地方志记载的内容包括定量记录和定性描述两类,且具有定量化和高分辨率的优点,但它毕竟不是真实的土地记录。因此,寻求一类将赋税资料反演为土地数据,使之能够与现代统计数据进行直接衔接的方法,是充分利用这份资料进行土地利用变化研究所必须解决的首要问题。文章以明清以来土地统计特征为视角,从基层土地登记制度、登记程序、不同册籍登记数据及其相互关系为出发点,重新系统地审视了历史时期土地数据的性质、演变过程、统计体系,澄清了以往对历史时期土地数据的模糊认识,从而对历史时期土地数据的重建进行了有益的尝试。结果表明,文献数据分类清晰,性质、职能明确,而以往研究通常忽略了文献数据的性质与功能,以至于将文献数据误读。由文献土地数据的考辩发现,从土地清丈数据到财政数据之间存在一定关系,并通过这一关系,对历史时期断面数据给予了重建。结果显示,在一定误差范围内,重建数据基本上,能够与现代统计数据相吻合,能够反映标准年代土地利用强度的趋势,因而是可信的。这一研究对中国文献土地数据价值及其百年尺度耕地数据的重建,具有开创性意义。作为一种主要时空差异分析的工具,地理信息系统(GIS)在县级尺度土地利用强度格局分析中,具有一定的优势。在对明清以来河南土地利用/土地覆盖变化的分析过程中,首次系统的进行了GIS辅助下的县级尺度要素分析。GIS的应用在上述县级尺度分析中的作用包括:空间数据的(表格、图等)的生成、可视化与制图效果。这一探讨对利用现代技术,合理分析历史文献数据起到了重要的探索作用。由于历史环境不同,区域土地利用变化的动力机制存在着各自的特殊性。特定社会环境下的政策因素,不仅是加速或延缓土地利用变化的重要驱动力,而且在长期的历史过程中,积淀成为一种文化现象。对移民因素、政区变化、地方登记体系形成的原因、种植结构的讨论,及其微观案例的研究,为纵深角度再现历史时期区域土地利用变化的认识,提供了有力的参照依据,同时,也为历史时期区域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的基本理论与方法,奠定了实证研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has great influence on environmental evolution and sustainable economic development, which is an important part of global change and one of the main reasons for global climate change, and is affected by the interaction between physics and human factors at different time and space. Which has been a core project in the international global environmental change studies since 1990s, for the study on driving forces of LUCC can greatly help us to understand the essentials of land use change, and based on it, we can predict the developing trend of land use. Historical LUCC research as a part of LUCC, including data model and human driving forces. The research of LUCC on a regional scale is an important part of global LUCC research, which is a powerful approach to understanding the earth system and is necessary for deepening global change research. The outcomes of regional change research are great contributions to a better understanding of the Earth System as a whole, and the integrated experiment modeling and analysis are powerful tools for enhancing understanding of the earth system. Some key scientific issues in regional environmental change should be focused on.Detailed analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use intensity is not only the basis of the study on cultured land variation, but is also an important method for studying the variation processes of other land use types. China has abundant continuous historical documents with a large number of records describing LUCC information were undiscovered, which are highlighted proxy data for reconstruction of past LUCC, however, only recently, within the past 20 years, have large amounts of basic data been collected and exploited for the historical LUCC. Much effort has been put into reconstructing the historical LUCC over China using a variety of historical documents, especially data for all kinds land data reconstruction for the last 500 years, such as history books, local gazettes, archives of government, private works, and so on, thus making it possible to deepen the related research. Consequently, a lot of differences exist in the reconstructed land data time series when researchers use either the data from same sources or records from different documents. The main reason for the phenomenon is, that the impact of human factors on land statistics system is not very clear, which would, to some extent, restrict the rational development and utilization of land resources. Inconsiderate employment of the registered data as normal cultured statistics without correction will affect the reliability of the research and result in a deviation from the fact. This is because many researchers usually do not understand the character and function of the land data recorded in different types of documents. In fact, the source data available plays a key role in historical LUCC research. Although land data in historical document are classified into many categories, they have different characteristics and functions, so the quoted land data in related works are seldom right. To address this issue, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of reconstructed land data series’ using different historical documents and to discuss its different causes.This dissertation is based on the socio-economic data from 1368 to 1953, principal component analysis, the aspects of dynamic information gathering, and main driving forces and driving mechanism of the variations of LUCC in Henan Province. It discussed the historical document style, the value and meaning of land data in historical background, redescribed the actual changing trend and character of Chinese registered land, and analyzed the driving force of the policy relative to cultivated land and to cultivated land area change. According to the systematic data on land use that was analyzed, reverse deduction of the historical cultivated land area is relatively reliable, and found that the reconstructed land data series in the region has a completely consistent relative change range with land statistics data. So based on the proxy data derived from the historical documents, the centennial changes of spatial patterns of LUCC in Henan Province during the past 500 years are analyzed . Undoubtedly, data extracted from varied historical origins have different characteristics; therefore, different methods are adopted to quantify each category of primary records. It is showed that the registered land data in historical documents, which is land tax data, did not agree with the actual cultivated land controled in local government, however, the reconstructed cultured land area and modern land statistical data are rational in their spatial-temporal variations.Being a useful analytical tool for LUCC, Geographica Information System (GIS) has some advantages for county-scale patten analysis. In the disseretation , GIS-aided quantitative analyses are applied for LUCC in Henan Provice in Ming-Qing Dynasties, based on the standardized and unified data collected from numerable and valuable historical documents and various statistical reports, The conclusions may be distinguished as follows :The change of statistics registration system were in order to adapt the regional land data register, the relationship between register data and actual land area were obvous. which provided a new way to respond to LUCC for land data extracted and the statistical characteristics of land data in during Ming-Qing Dynasty can be traced and analyzed .The results show that the driving mechanism is quite different among different LUCC types in historical period. Under the favorable policy formulated by the central and local governments, the main driving forces of land use change had obvious effects in local regions .Generally, the variation of land use was driven by physical and human factors in the region, but the main driving force is human activities in small scale. The main driving forces in the change of land use type were immigration, planting the high yield crops, favourable cultivation policy and extensive cultivation, etc. The study will benefit the research about underlying surface changes of historical periods.更多还原