中国人口老龄化背景下的老年人力资源开发研究

【作者】 程馨；

【导师】 徐建培；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 中国不仅面临快速增长的人口给中国的社会经济发展带来的巨大压力,还面临着人口老龄化的挑战。人口老龄化对经济、社会发展带来了深远的影响,包括对人口变动的影响、对劳动力资源和劳动生产率的影响、对储蓄、投资、生产、消费、产业结构、技术进步等的影响、或对传统、伦理、道德及对婚姻、家庭、精神文明建设等等方面的影响。面对如此强大的挑战,可以从很多角度,诸如社会保障、生育政策、产业结构等角度采取不同的措施来应对,而本论文主要从合理配置和利用劳动力资源,开发利用老年人力资源的角度来研究如何应对老龄化的挑战。越老越严峻的人口老龄化,使得我国的劳动力从“无限供给”转向“有限剩余”,对我国的产业结构和竞争优势产生了很大的威胁,并且将在2030年至2050年间劳动力供给进入最严峻的时期。因此,在这个关键时期,开发利用巨大储备的老年劳动力资源,是解决劳动力供给和老龄化挑战的一个一举两得的好对策。通过开发和利用,把我国老龄人口压力转化为创造社会财富的人力资源动力。文章综合运用比较分析法、实证分析法以及大量计量和数理分析法等研究工具,分析了中国老龄化背景下老年人力资源开发的理论和事实依据、总体态势、城镇老年人开发研究以及其他国家老年人力资源开发的经验,融汇了经济学、劳动经济学、生态经济学、人力资源管理、人口学、老年学等多门学科的理论,对我国老年人力资源的开发提出了对策和建议。本文首先介绍了选题的背景,研究目的和意义,国内外关于老龄化和老年人力资源开发的研究现状以及论文结构、思路和研究方法。其次,研究中国的老龄化进程对目前和未来劳动力供给的影响,分析得出“在劳动力市场上,其主导作用是劳动力需求,而非劳动力供给”、中国经济的发展面临“刘易斯转折点”的结论,并且对未来劳动年龄人口变动和未来劳动就业进行了预测。第三,文章对老年人力资源进行了分析,研究了中国老年人力资源开发的总体态势和中国城镇老年人力资源的开发。从中国老年人力资源开发的年龄阶段及其人数和结构分析、老年人力资源与劳动年龄人口资源的整合效应、中国老年人劳动的动机,以及老年人力资源开发对中国社会人口的生态影响四个方面来分析了中国老年人力资源开发的总体态势;从城镇低龄老年人口的特点和就业领域的开发与实践方面论述了中国城镇老年人力资源的开发。另外,还针对“城市老年人再就业的影响因素”作了实证分析。第四,针对几个有代表性的老龄化国家,如法国、美国、日本等国家应对老龄化和老年人力资源开发方面的对策和措施进行了分析研究,并对我国老年人力资源的开发提出了对策和建议。第五,对全文的总结和今后研究的展望。本文的主要结论主要体现在五个方面(其中包括创新点):第一,对目前劳动力市场态势进行了分析。运用经济增长率、经济结构和劳动年龄人口增长、劳动年龄人口迁入率对失业率的影响四个因素来检验劳动力需求与供给对就业压力的贡献,以及对2001年至2007年第三季度全国部分城市劳动力实际供求数据的数理分析,得出“在劳动力市场上,其主导作用是劳动力需求,而非劳动力供给”的结论。第二,对未来劳动就业的预测,在分析和假设了未来各年龄组别劳动参与率的条件下,对未来劳动就业总量的变动进行了预测。预测揭示,未来我国劳动力供给和就业压力的高峰将出现在2020年前后(考虑65岁及以上从业人员),若不考虑65岁及以上的从业人员,高峰将在2015年达到7.53亿,其后从业人员的规模将不断减少。随着人口老龄化的发展,到本世纪中叶我国劳动力供给和从业人员规模将比现在大幅度降低,届时15～64岁的从业人员将仅有6.30亿左右。考虑老年人就业不但可以扩大从业人员规模,而且还可以使得劳动力供给高峰推迟到来,使得从业人员不断缩小的态势推后到来。第三,研究了老年人力资源开发对中国社会人口的生态影响,此方面也是本文的创新性研究之一。老龄社会家庭资源的分化、家庭责任的弱化及婚育观念的改变导致产生的特殊家庭结构都给人口的可持续发展和代际关系的演变带来了很大的生态影响。而开发老年人力资源对于改变代际关系,促进社会可持续发展,发挥老年社会功能、实现老年社会价值、扭转家庭危机,具有重要意义。第四,对我国城市老年人再就业的影响因素进行了实证分析,也是本文的创新点。通过对青岛市部分老年人再就业状况的问卷调查,对影响城市老年人再就业的因素,如性别、年龄阶段、受教育水平、有无技能特长、有无退休金进行logistic回归分析,得出结论:年龄阶段和有无技能特长对城市老年人再就业有显著影响,而其他因素影响不明显。第五,在对我国老年人力资源开发的对策建议中提出了一个包含两大系统(社会化服务系统和社会化管理系统)和一机制(市场竞争机制)的实施老年人力资源开发的管理信息系统,这一系统是有创新性的,它能使老年人力资源能够按照充分开发和合理使用劳动力资源的原则,符合市场竞争机制,有组织、有计划地进行开发和利用。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is not only confronted with the enormous pressure on the social and economic development that coming from the rapidly growing population, but also faced with the challenge of population ageing. Aging has brought far-reaching influences on economy and social development, including the influences on population change, labor resource, labor capacity, saving, investment, production, consumption, industrial structure and technical progress, or on tradition, ethics, morality and marriage, family, and spiritual civilization. Facing so huge challenges, we can adopt some different measures from many angles to deal with, such as from the angle of social security, birth policy, industrial structure and so on. However, the research angle of this paper mainly from reasonable efficiency utilization of labor resource and the development of elderly human resource to deal with the challenge of ageing.The ageing is more and more severe so that our labor provides will change from infinite to limited, which will bring about some great threatens on industrial structure and competitive advantage of our country, and from 2030 to 2050, the labor force supply will come into the most rigorous period. Hence, in the key time, development of elderly human resource is a good idea to resolve our country’s labor force supply and aging problems. Through development and utilization, the pressure of aging population will be translated into the human resource power to produce social wealth.This dissertation, using the methods of comparative analysis, empirical analysis, a lot of computation and mathematical analysis, on the background of ageing analyzed the theories, actual basis and total situation of elderly human resource development, the research of elderly human resource development those people live in cities and towns and introduced the experiences of other countries. The theories of many subjects such as economics, labor economics, ecological economics, human management, demography and gerontics are integrated in this dissertation, and some countermeasures and suggestions about elderly human resource development of our country are put forward.The content of this dissertation were summed up as follows. At first, the dissertation introduced that topic to choose a background, research objectives and meaning, the research status of home and abroad about aging and old human resource development, and the paper structure and train of thought. Then the paper is discussed that aging progress of China had brought influence on current and future labor force supply. The conclusion of analysis is that the labor demands not labor force supply holds the leading role at labor market, and the economic development of China forces the Lewes’ turning point. And the changing of future active labor force and future labor employment are both forecasted. Next, the paper is researched our country’s total situation of elderly human resource development and the development of those elderly human resource who are living in cities and towns. In this part, our country’s total situation of elderly human resource development is analyzed through four aspects that are the age level, the number and structure of elderly human resource to develop, the integrated effect of old human resource and active labor force, labor motives of elderly person, and the ecological impact on social population coming from elderly human resource development. The development of elderly human resource that lives in cities and towns is mainly analyzed by two aspects. They are the characteristics of those people and the development of employment fields. Besides, an empirical analysis about the factors that effect re-employment of cities’ elderly person is done. Fourthly, strategies and measures on elderly human resource of some representative aging countries such as France, America, Japan and so on are researched, and some countermeasures and suggestions about elderly human resource development of our country are put forward. The fifth part is the sum-up about this dissertation and the tendency of the research.The results including innovations of the dissertation were mainly embodied in five perspectives, as show below.Firstly, the total situation of present labor market is analyzed, four factors of the influences on unemployment rate that come from economic growth rate, economic structure, the raise of working-age population and the immigration rate of working-age population were used to test the contribution to employment pressure coming from labor demand or supply. The fact labor demand and supply data from 2001 to the third quarter 2007 of some parts of our country was mathematical analyzed. Then a conclusion was drew that in the labor market, the leading role was labor demand not labor supply.Secondly, the future employment was predicted. Analyzing and supposing future labor participation rate of each age group, the change of future labor employment gross was forecast. The forecast showed that in the future, if employed person over the age of 65 was considered, the summit of labor supply and employment would appear around 2020. If not, the summit would reach 753 million in 2015, and then the scale of employed person would be continuous decline. Along with the development of population ageing, until the middle of century, our labor supply and the scale employed person would be more declined than now, and then, the employed person from the age of 15 to 64 would only around 630 million. Considering the elder person employment, not only can enlarge the scale of employed person, but also can postpone the summit of labor supply and the continuous decrease situation of employed person to reach.Thirdly, the development of elderly human resource brought more ecological influence on Chinese social population. This point not only has been research in the dissertation, but also was one of innovations of this paper. In the aging society, the special family structure that was caused from the division of family resources, the weakening of family responsibilities and the change of marriage opinions, brought about large ecological influences on the sustainable development of population and the evolution of relation between generations. The development of elderly human resource has an important meaning. It can make better the relation between generations, promote sustainable social development, keep elder society in order, realize the old person value and avert family crisis.Fourthly, the influence factors about urban elder person re-employment were positive analyzed. This aspect also is one innovation. Through questionnaire of a part of Qingdao elder person re-employment and logistic regression analysis about influence factors such as gender, age stage, education, skill and pension, a conclusion was drew. It was that age stage and skill had significant influence on elder person re-employment, and other factors hadn’t have so obvious influence.Fifthly, among the suggestions of elderly human resource, one management information system including two systems (social serve system and social management system) and one mechanism (market competition mechanism) were put forward. This system was an innovation. It can make elderly human resource to develop systematically and designedly in keep with the market competition mechanism.更多还原