【作者】 蔡玉；

【导师】 邱兆祥；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 自1998年以来,中国上市公司的平均资产负债率呈现逐渐上升趋势,研究这一趋势,对理解中国上市公司资本结构决策,规范上市公司融资行为,增强上市公司的竞争力具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。国内的学者一般是从上市公司自身特征入手研究资本结构选择问题,很少从上市公司外部的产品市场竞争和融资市场角度进行分析。中国产品市场已逐渐由卖方市场转变为买方市场,企业的产品市场竞争程度变得越来越剧烈。产品市场竞争的变化会影响上市公司的生产经营活动,进而影响其现金流量,最终影响其融资结构。国外资本结构理论的前提之一是债务对企业有硬约束作用,企业不能偿还债务,即要破产,但在中国,企业的债务融资具有软约束特征。上市公司预期到这种债务软约束,则会增加债务的使用。本文研究中国上市公司资本结构选择,是从公司面临的外部产品市场竞争和债务融资市场的软约束角度进行的,这有别于以往从代理成本、信息不对称、公司治理等公司内部进行的研究。通过对中国上市公司产品市场和融资市场的分析认为,产品市场竞争程度、债务软约束程度与公司债务水平呈正相关关系,中国上市公司的融资行为是对其外部环境的理性反应。本文的主要工作是:首先,本文分析了中国上市公司的产品市场竞争和融资市场债务软约束的特征对其资本结构选择的影响,由于产品市场竞争程度的加剧和债务软约束的存在,中国上市公司负债水平会上升。其次,本文根据中国具体国情建立一个两阶段双寡头的博弈模型分析产品市场竞争和债务软约束对上市公司资本结构决策的影响,通过计算产量和债务的子博弈均衡,使用逆向归纳法进行博弈求解和分析,在理论上对中国上市公司的融资行为进行了分析。最后,本文计算了一个反应企业之间策略性竞争程度的变量来衡量上市公司产品市场竞争强度,用企业年借款偿付总额占企业负债总额的比重来衡量上市公司债务软约束程度。对中国上市公司按照2001年证监会颁布的行业分类法,进行四位数分类,得到30个具有竞争性的行业样本。由于中国上市公司的上市时间较短,且开始几年数量较少,因此本文使用1999—2006年期间的非平衡面板数据,用广义最小二乘法对中国上市公司的融资行为进行实证分析。论文的主要结论是:由于中国的产品市场转入买方市场,竞争程度加剧,上市公司为了占有更大的市场份额,必然扩大投资,使得企业的负债水平提高;中国转型期存在的债务软约束现象加大了上市公司债务的使用;中国上市公司的负债水平上升是其对外部环境所做出的理性反应。因此,本文建议应该规范企业的市场竞争行为,完善破产制度,建立多层次资本市场,硬化债务约束等,使上市公司对产品市场竞争和融资市场环境有良好的预期,以选择最优的资本结构,增强自身竞争力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The average ratio of asset-debt in China listed companies shows itself in the trend of increasing year by year from 1998. The study on the new problem is helpful to understand China listed companies’ choice of capital structure, regulate financial behavior and buildup the ability of competition.The scholars in China always study the choice of capital structure on the characteristics of the firm, and almost of them lose sight of the product market competition and the financial market that the firms face on production and operation. Chinese firm’s production market competition becomes more intensive and more intensive, along with the transformation from seller’s market to buyer’s market. The change in competition will influence listed companies’ production and operation, and cash flow, at last, capital structure. One of the preconditions of foreign theory on capital structure is that the debt is a hard budget constraint, i.e. if the firm could not pay the debt, it would be bankrupt. But in China, the debt is soft budget constraint. The listed companies will expect the situation, so they will increase the level of debt.The paper studies the capital structure of China listed companies on the aspect of product market competition and debt soft budget constraint, not on the aspect of agential cost, non-symmetric information and corporation governance that some scholars do before. This paper analyses the firms’ production and financial market in China, put forward a proposition: the extent of production market competition and debt soft budget constraint is positively relative to the ratio of capital structure, the financial behavior in China listed companies is rational response to external situation.The main work of the paper is:Firstly, this paper analyses the influence of production market competition and debt soft budget constraint on the firms’ choices of capital structure. Because the intensive of competition and the debt soft constraint, China listed companies’ level of debt will rise.Secondly, this paper establishes a game model of two-stage duopoly to studying the relations among product market competition, debt soft budget constraints and capital structure. We analyze and solute the game by computing sub-game Nash equilibrium of production and debt, using backward induction.Finally, this paper constructs an index to denote the extent of competitive strategy measure and uses the ratio of the year-payment and total debt to demonstrate the debt soft constrains.This paper classifies Chinese listed companies by "the guide of classifying Chinese listed companies" put in force in 2001, according with "four digit" criteria, and obtains 30 industrial samples. Then this paper demonstrates the proposition that has put forward before, using generalized least squared and unbalanced panel data between 1999 and 2006.The main conclusion of the paper is: Chinese production market changes to buyer-market, more intensive, the listed companies will increase the level of debt to scale-up; Debt soft constraint pricks up the use of debt; The increase of debt is the rational response by the listed companies to external situation. The advice of the paper is: China should regulate the conduct of enterprise’s competition, perfect the system of bankruptcy, establish multi-arrangement capital market, harden debt constraint. Making the listed companies chose the optimize capital structure, buildup the ability of competition.更多还原