【作者】 李胜会；

【导师】 冯邦彦；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 纵观世界经济的发展历史,发现经济的空间集聚是一种普遍存在的世界性的经济现象,而且由来已久。改革开放以来,在我国的东部沿海地区,尤其是珠三角、长三角和环渤海等地区的经济集聚具有了现代工业和服务业的特征。这些地区已经成为我国吸引资金、劳动、技术和知识最密集的地区,已经成为我国吸引外商直接投资的聚集地,已经成为跨国公司总部经济的聚集地。与此同时,我国的经济增长不仅维持了多年的高速度,同时,地区差距也在不断扩大。从传统的新古典经济理论来研究经济增长和地区差距问题,其微观基础都是建立在规模报酬不变和完全竞争的基础上,并且忽视空间因素,由此导致的结论是在不考虑自然资源分布异质性的情况下,现实世界将变成一种“平滑”经济体。产业或生产要素在空间的集聚以及城市的存在无法得到合理的解释,那么也就无法找到集聚和地区差距扩大的背后机制。本文是在空间经济学理论框架下,解释经济集聚和区域经济增长关系的一个尝试性研究,进而探讨地区差距的影响因素,并提供相关的经验验证。主要的内容有:本文构建了经济集聚与区域经济增长关系的微观分析框架。在考察资本要素集聚与经济增长以及导致的地区差距时,以鲍德温、马丁和奥塔维亚诺(2001)建立的模型为基础,研究了规模报酬递增所导致的经济内生增长和经济集聚之间的循环累积因果关系。最终得到的结论是:建立在知识溢出基础上的规模报酬递增,使得经济的内生增长成为经济的集聚力,而经济的集聚又反过来成为推动经济长期增长的一个重要原因,这种循环累积因果关系的结果是使得核心-边缘结构下核心区的经济增长率大于对称结构下的经济增长率,进而导致区域经济差距的不断拉大。接着,遵循藤田和蒂斯(2003)的研究思路,研究了在R&D部门中,人力资本集聚对促进经济增长的影响。其结论是:人力资本的集聚通过增加产品种类数的增长,进而促进经济更快的增长,并导致区域间差距的扩大。本文分层次研究了我国各地区要素集聚和产业集聚的情况,以及与区域经济增长的关系。首先,考察了我国1985年以来劳动力和资本的空间分布,运用生产函数法建立了衡量全要素生产率增长的计量模型,并对其进行分解,进而测算出了资本和劳动力集聚的规模弹性效应,发现规模弹性效应在东部地区和西部地区的全要素生产率增长中存在差异,还发现内生于资本和劳动中的技术进步在各省份全要素生产率增长中的作用也存在差异,并且是导致东部地区和中部地区的全要素生产率增长差异的主要因素;然后,运用绝对集中度指数、空间基尼系数、产业集聚指数考察了我国20个制造业行业1993年以来的产业集聚变动情况,发现制造业总体上是一种高集聚的态势,并且有进一步增强的趋势,还发现产业集聚的地区差异明显表现为东部地区高度集聚与西部地区基本无集聚状况并存。通过进一步建立面板数据模型分别对20个制造业行业和9个高集聚且集聚趋势上升的产业进行计量分析,发现集聚效应和规模效应对经济增长具有明显的促进作用,同时也是导致地区经济差异的主要因素之一。本文研究了我国要素集聚和制造业集聚的效率问题,并分析了集聚经济的规模效率对生产率增长的不同影响。通过对Malmquist指数的分解研究了要素集聚的规模效率和技术效率,比较了不同历史时期效率的变化情况,发现资本和劳动这两种要素的集聚并没有明显的技术效率增加和规模效率改善;通过运用DEA方法对20个制造业投入产出的效率的多层次分解,比较了不同行业集聚的规模有效性,结论表明绝大多数制造业仍然处于规模报酬不变或规模报酬递增的阶段,因此,制造业在东部地区集聚仍有继续增强的可行性和可能性。针对研究结论,本文认为应当合理引导资本和劳动力等生产要素的流动和聚集,促使要素在经济发展中发挥最高的效率;建立引导产业集聚合理发展的各项公共政策,保持产业集聚的合理规模;加大人力资本投资,引导人力资本在地区间的合理流动和聚集;调整产业布局,优化产业结构,根据地区比较优势布局适合本地区经济发展的产业结构,鼓励相应产业在本地区聚集发展;根据不同产业的规模效率情况,引导相应产业迁移扩散,进而在新的地区形成新的集聚。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the world’s economic history, agglomeration is a common economic phenomenon. Since reformation of China, the agglomeration in Southeastern coastal areas, especially in the Peal River Delta and Chang River Delta, has the modern industrial and service characters. These places are the areas for the cluster of capital, labor and technology, and the gathering of FDI and headquarters of international firms. Such agglomeration brings in not only the development of industries and economic growth of location or the whole country, but also the regional gaps in different region.Research on the economic growth and regional disparity in the new-classic economic theories, the micro foundation is laid on the assumptions of unchanged scales and complete competition. They overlook the space factor and see the world as a "smooth" economic body, without the reasonable explanations to the existence of the Town and spatial agglomeration of resources or industries. So the agglomeration and regional disparity are hard to be explained under such assumptions. This paper uses the spatial theory to explain the relationship between economic agglomeration and regional economic growth, site out the factors with experiential examples.First of all, this paper constructs the micro-structure in theory. Based on the model built by Baldwin, R.E., Martin, P. and Ottaviano, G in 2001, it studies the circular causality relation of economic agglomeration and regional economic growth on the assumption of increasing returns to scale. It shows that the increasing returns to scale make economic growth push the economic agglomeration, and vice versa. Such circular causality makes the growth rate of the center region in the core-periphery system higher than the same in the symmetric system, which will bring in larger regional gaps. Then following the thoughts of Fujita, M and Thisse (2003), it shows the human capital’s agglomeration will push the growth of products diversity, and so forth to push the growth of economy, finally leading to larger the regional gaps.Secondly, the paper studies the agglomeration of factors and sectors in regions of China, and its relation with regional growth. It studies the spatial diversion of labor and capital of China from 1985, builds up a model of TFP Growth using the productive functions, calculates the scale elasticity of labor and capital agglomeration by decomposing the TFP growth . It discovers that such elasticity is different in the TFP Growth between east and west regions of China, so as the technology innovation’s contribution in the TFP Growth of different provinces, which leads to the TFP Growth difference in the east and middle regions of China. Then, it uses the CR Index, Spatial Gini Index and the E-G Index to study 20 sub-sectors in China’s industry from 1993 for its industrial agglomeration. This study shows the industry in China is in a state of high agglomeration, and the east regions’ agglomeration is much higher than the west regions. It also uses the Panel data model to analyze 20 sub-sectors in industry and 9 sectors of high agglomeration, finds that such agglomeration and scale effects are essential to the economic growth, and leading to the regional diversity and difference.Thirdly, this paper also studies the efficiency of agglomeration of factors and industry in China, as well as the effects of scale efficiency on the productive growth. Through the analysis of Malmquist index, it studies the scale efficiency and technology efficiency of factor agglomeration, compares the change of these efficiencies in different time, and finds that the agglomeration of capital and labor factors will not necessarily bring in the growth in the scale efficiency and technology efficiency. It also uses DEA method to analyze the input-output of 20 sub-sectors in China’s industry, compares the scale efficiency of different sectors’ agglomeration, and shows that most of these sectors in the industry are still in the stage of unchanged or grown scales. So the industrial agglomeration in the east region of China will continue.To conclude, the paper suggests the agglomeration of factors should be guided and led, so as to push the maximum efficiency in economy. It also suggests that public policy should be adopted to lead the development of industrial agglomeration, and keep a reasonable scale. Human resources capital investment should be improved, so the flow or agglomeration of such capital will be regional divided. Furthermore, the industrial structure should be modified in according to comparative advantage and agglomeration of industries should be encouraged. Finally, the distribution of industries’ agglomeration should be led by the policy, so as to form a new regional agglomeration.更多还原