【作者】 张丕景；

【导师】 姜学民；

【作者基本信息】 山东农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 物流被喻为经济的加速器(Facilitator),但我国经济对物流的依存度过高,表现为全国物流总额与GDP相比较的物流需求系数快速增长和物流成本占GDP的比重居高不下,达到发达国家的2倍之多,经济增长付出了很高的物流代价,包括经济代价和生态环境代价。农业发展物流代价过高的问题同样存在,尤其是其生态环境代价。物流对农产品实现增值的作用巨大,但是我国农产品物流系统问题导致农户大量现实和潜在的损失,不能实现农产品应有的价值,影响了农民增收,并导致过量使用化肥农药等化学品。降低物流代价成为重要的经济发展目标,因此探索整体经济发展物流代价过高问题既有理论意义,也有现实意义。本文基于大物流理论框架,综合运用经济学、管理学、系统科学、产业集群理论、产权理论等的相关内容和思想,运用逻辑演绎与归纳、规范分析与实证分析、定性分析与定量分析、理论分析与对比分析、制度分析、SCP分析、数学模型、博弈分析、案例分析等方法,对经济发展的物流代价问题进行系统研究。主要内容包括:第一,对大物流理论进行阐述和探讨,作为分析物流代价问题的基本理论依据,并据此结合实际物流成本过高的问题提出物流减量化问题;第二,分析我国物流代价的主要因素,研究物流实物量和价值量的减量化问题;第三,从产业组织角度运用SCP框架分析研究经济物流系统减量化:第四,研究物流减量化的主要障碍及政府行为;第五,结合我国农业现状分析农产品物流减量化问题:第六,针对山东优势农产品的蔬菜物流进行案例分析。本文的主要观点和结论如下:1、大物流理论有助于解决我国经济整体物流代价过高的问题,即实现物流减量化目标。大物流指物的流动,经济物流是其中的一个部分。大物流理论的核心思想是,物流包括自然物流、经济物流和社会物流,物流活动应以三者的统一为总体目标,强调整体与和谐,包括三种物流内部和谐及它们之间的和谐。作为实现生产与消费桥梁的经济物流,其基础是自然物流,经济物流的最终目的是社会物流和谐。同时,经济物流与生产和营销之间的关系是双向的,经济物流为生产和营销服务,同时生产和营销及消费都应该瞄向物流目标,这是大物流思想的体现。经济发展促进了经济物流的发展,逐步形成社会化、专业化的物流产业集群这种能够发挥整体优势的组织形式,因为物流作业的巨大时空范围,物流产业集群不仅是地理距离意义上的,更多的是借助现代网络技术,表现为虚拟物流产业集群。物流产业集群形成的动因,一是交易费用的节约,二是发挥范围经济效应。2、我国经济发展的物流代价高,除成本高外,还有物流量大的问题,即存在物流量和单位物流成本的“双高”现象,两者既有密切联系,又有区别。物流量大不仅造成经济成本高,而且生态环境成本也高。降低物流代价,即实现物流减量化,必须一方面降低单位物流成本,即提高物流效率,另一方面要降低总物流量。前者可以通过改善经济物流来实现,大物流思想有助于经济物流效率的提高,而后者的解决更需要树立大物流思想,经济物流量与社会物流量不能超出自然物流能够承载的边界。分析表明,物流量与产业结构、资源分布、人口密度、国际经济合作分工、生产布局、物流网络系统效率等有关,其中物流网络系统效率决定物流环节占压的实物量,因为物流环节时间约占整个生产销售过程的95%。我国物流系统效率低下的主要标志是资产周转率低,资源占压高,企业利润依靠低人工成本和高价格,因此物流低效率降低了消费者剩余,损害消费者福利。提高物流效率是实现物流减量化的重要方面。资源浪费也是增加物流量一个重要因素。大物流应该成为产业结构调整的战略目标,以降低物流量作为决策的目标变量,从而从源头上降低物流量,最好的经济物流就是消灭物流。3、物流产业组织是影响物流减量化的重要因素,物流市场结构决定了物流企业整体的行为和绩效。物流社会化和专业化分工是提高经济物流效率的必然趋势,第三方物流是这一趋势的体现。市场结构分析表明,我国的物流市场总体上是原子型市场结构,物流行业集中度过低,有实力的大企业数量少,物流服务的差别化度较低,非资产型物流服务不足;缺乏必要的产业分工与协作,低端市场的竞争过度和高端市场的竞争不足并存:从物流技术创新的角度看,受企业规模和风险分担方式的影响,物流企业技术进步和技术扩散的速度较慢;受信息不对称的影响,企业委托3PL业务风险较大,影响产业发展;从政府公共管制的角度看,不同领域内的管制过多与管制不足并存。因此,一方面应该采取鼓励适度垄断的产业政策,通过兼并和重组,整合物流资源,提高物流市场集中度,从而提高技术创新能力,降低物流总成本。另一方面须改进物流市场环境和法律环境,消除行政壁垒和地区封锁,在全国范围内建立畅通的大物流网络,鼓励各种运输方式和物流资源的合理运用,促进企业的协作和扩张,为企业联合型的大型物流组织的生长创造适宜的外部条件,在更大的区域范围内发挥范围经济效应,以降低物流代价。4、克服物流减量化的障碍,实现大物流体系这一复杂巨系统内的协作与有序竞争,政府应该发挥关键作用,提供物流公共品,其中有实物资源,但更重要的是制度等软资源。经济物流系统中,物流节点和线网的规划,物流主体的竞争与协作,不同运输方式的合理搭配与衔接,不同利益主体的利益分配,各利益主体对自然物流的影响等,都需要制度规范或约束。对于经济物流,需要政府建立有利于物流减量化的激励和约束机制。发达国家的政府都在这些方面有所作为,制定了本国物流的相关制度和规划指导意见,如日本、美国和欧盟部分国家,为我们提供了借鉴。我国政府开始重视物流环境建设,逐步消除了一些制度障碍,但是步伐相当谨慎,特别在物流体系的全国一体化和消除地方物流壁垒等方面还有大量工作。物流制度环境取决于中央政府与地方政府,以及不同政府部门之间的博弈结果,理论上说,各方合作是占优策略,但是在缺乏有利外部约束的情况下,博弈的结果可能是(不合作,不合作)。因此,必须靠外力形成硬约束,以达到合作的超优解。5、农业是迫切需要物流减量化的典型产业部门,向农业产后物流环节要效益替代向石油农业要产量,是今后我国农业调整的重要方向。大农业可持续发展的重点是建立节约、高效的、减量化的农产品大物流体系,以大物流理论指导农产品物流发展是解决“三农”问题的重要途径,也是降低农业发展物流代价的一种有效选择。农业是最能够体现自然物流、社会物流和经济物流和谐的产业,很好的吻合了大物流思想,自然物流的量和质与农业之间互相产生直接影响。农产品物流是农业物流循环的核心部分,农产品物流是实现农业循环减量化的关键。农产品,尤其是生鲜农产品的物流时间对价值具有决定性意义。而我国农业小规模分散化生产的特点,形成增加物流时间和物流成本的固有因素。改善农产品物流网络体系的物流能力,包括扩大物流半径,缩短物流时间,增大物流容量,能够增加物流过程的增值,减少潜在物流损失,这是农产品物流管理的主要决策目标。克服农业的弱势地位,建立布局合理的全国性农产品物流网络系统,需要政府在网络硬件布局规划、软件管理体系、信息交换平台及物流主体——农产品物流合作组织等方面加以引导和扶持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Logistics is called as the facilitator of economics. But our economics depends too much on logistics, the logistics demand coefficient, namely the total logistics amount compares to GDP, has increased in high speed, and the proportion of logistics cost to GDP is high without decrease to double mount of developed countries. The logistics cost consist of economic and ecosystem is very high. And, the same problems exist in agriculture development, especially the ecosystem cost. Logistics plays a very important role in the value-increasing of agri-products. But the problems of agricultural logistics system have brought on huge loss, due to be incapable of realizing the value, which affects the income of the farmers, and lead to the overusing of fertilizers and pesticide. It is both significant in theoretic and realism to research on the problems of too high logistics cost of national economic development, because it is the important goal to decreas the logistics cost of economical development.According as the material flow theory framework, the paper studies on the problems of the economical logistics cost, comprehensively utilizing the economics, management, system science, industry cluster theory, and so on, as well as the methods such as logic syllogism and induce, criterion analysis and demonstration analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, theory analysis and contrast analysis, system analysis, SCP analysis, mathematics model, games theory, case study, etc. The main content include: first, set forth and discuss the material flow theory, take it as the basic theoretical foundation to analyze the logistics cost of China, and then put forward the concept of logistical reduction in combination of the actual high logistical cost; second, analyze the main facts to affecting the logistics cost in China, and study on the problems of logistical reduction of amount of practicality and value; third, in the views of industrial organization, analyze the reduction of economical logistics system while utilizing the SCP framework; fourth, study on the main obstruction to the logistical reduction and the government behavior; five, analyze the agri-products logistical reduction combined with actuality of agriculture of China; lastly, is the case study of vegetable as the dominant agri-products in Shandong Province. The main viewpoints and conclusions are as follows:1. The material flow theory helps to solve the problem of high logistics cost, namely to realize the aim of logistical reduction. The material flow (MF) means the flow of material, and the economical logistics is a sect of it. The core thought of the MF is, MF consists of natural material flow, social material flow and economical material flow, the whole and the harmony are emphasized in the activities of MF, both inside and among each kind of the material flow. The base of economical material flow, the bridge between production and consumption, is natural material flow (NMF), and the final destination of the economical material flow (EMF) is harmony of social material flow. At the same time, the relationship between EMF and produce is bi-directional, the EMF serves the produce and marketing while the produce and marketing should take aim the goal of MF, which is the thought of MF. The development of EMF has been accelerated by the economical development, and gradually formed the logistics industry cluster after socialization and specialization which is the organization being capable of exerting the whole advantage. Because of the huge space-time range, the logistics industrial cluster not only is on the geography distance but also is manifested virtual in virtue of modern technologies. The causes of the forming of logistics industry cluster are the saving of contract cost and the utilization of scope economics.2. As regards of the high logistics cost of China, beside the cost per capita, the flux is also too high, namely double-high. They tie up and also are quite different. The high flux leads to high cost both economically and environmentally. To realize the reduction of logistics, we must decrease the logistics cost per capita, namely increasing the logistics efficiency, and decrease the total logistics flux on the other hand. The former could be realized by improving the economical material flow helped by the though of MF, the resolve of the latter need erect the thought of MF, that is to say, the flux of EMF and SMF could not go beyond the limit set by the bearing of NMF.It is indicated by analysis that logistics flux has high relation with industrial structure, the distributing of resources, the density of population, works dividing of international cooperation, the producing layout, the efficiency of logistics networks system, and so on. The practicality amount in the links of logistics depends on the efficiency of logistics networks system while the time of logistics links is 95% of the whole process of the produce and sale. The main indicator of low logistics efficiency is the assets turnover rate, the profit of the enterprises depends more on low labor cost and high price. So the low logistics efficiency decreased the consumer surplus and impaired the welfare of the consumers. So the rising of efficiency is significant aspect of logistics reduction. And, the waste of resources is also the other key fact to rise the flux of MF. The MF should be the strategic goal of the adjustment of industrial structures, and take the logistics reduction as destination variable, so as to decrease the flux of MF from headstream; the best logistics is the disappearance of the logistics.3. The logistical industrial organization is the important fact for the logistics reduction, that the market structure decides the conduct and the performance of all the logistics enterprises. The socialization and specialization of logistics are the trend for improving the efficiency of EMF, and the third part logistics is embodiment of the trend. It is indicated by market structure analysis that our logistics market is atomy market structure, the convergence extent of the logistics industry is too low, there are few great firms, the difference of logistics services are low, and the no-assets logistics services lack without necessary industrial works-divide and coordination, the over-competition exists in low-side markets while the competition in high-side market is not adequate. In views of innovation of logistical technologies, limited and affected by the enterprise size and the mode of risk partake, technological progress and pervasion are in low speed; affected by the asymmetry of information, the business of the third part logistics has high risk for the demander, and impacted the development of the industry; and in the views of governmental control, there existed over-control and insufficient control in different fields.Thus, for the reduction of logistical cost, we should take the policies to encourage monopolization within measure, conformity the logistics resources and improve the market concentration extent via annex and regroup, so as to improve the ability of technological innovation. On the other hand, we must improve the market environment as well as law, and remove the administrational bulwark and regional blockage, build the expedite MF networks in the whole country, encourage the utilization of all the logistics resources and every kinds of the transportation mode, promote the cooperation and expand of the enterprises, and create a fitting condition for the growing of large-scale logistics organization like syndicate, so as to exert the utility of scope economics in a larger region than before to reduce the logistical cost.4. To overcome the obstacle of MF reduction and realize the cooperation and competition in order, the government should take the key role in supplying logistical public goods, in which there are practicality and especially the system soft resources. Some very significant activities in system of EMF need restriction and criterion by system, such as the layout of logistics nodes and line-net, the rival and cooperation among logistical main-bodies, the arrangement and join of different transportation modes, the interest distribution among different bodies, the impact to the NMF by main bodies, etc. The government should build the promoting and restricting mechanism in favor of the logistical reduction for the system of EMF.The governments of developed countries, such as Japan, the US, and some countries in Europe, have taken actions in some way, they have constituted the system and guiding opinions, which can be used for reference. Our government has started to think much of the building of the logistical environment, such as removing some institutional obstacles, but the step is quite slow, and still has much works to do in integration of logistics system of the whole country and removing the regional rampart of logistics. The institutional environment of logistics rests with the games results between the central government and the regional government and also among the regional governments. Theoretically speaking, cooperation is the dominant strategy perfectly, but the results may be (no-cooperation, no-cooperation) when being short of favorable external restriction. Thus, the dominant strategies of cooperation should be get by hard restriction of outside force.5. It should be the main direction of our agricultural adjustment that we benefit from the logistical links after production instead of yield from oil agriculture. It is the keystone of agricultural sustainable development to build a system of MF for farm produce, which is economical, efficient, and realize reduction of MF. Taking material flow theory as the guide for the logistics of farm produce is the important selection and approach to solve the problems facing China’s agriculture, rural areas and farmers as well as the logistical reduction of agricultural development cost. Agriculture is the industry being most typical to incarnate the harmony among NMF, SMF and EMF, which inosculates the thought of MF theory all right, because the quantity and quality of EMF affect the agriculture each other.The logistics of farm produce is the core part of agricultural cycle, and the logistics of farm produce is the key to the realization of the reduction of agricultural cycle.The logistics time is decisive for value of the farm products, especially the fresh one. The characteristic that the produce is in small-size and very disperse comes into being the inhere factor to increase the logistical time and cost. It is the main decision-making target for the farm products management to improve the ability of the logistics network system, consist of enlarging the logistics radius, shortening the logistics time, increasing the logistics capability, to be able to promote the multiplication and decrease the latent loss of the logistics process. For handling the disadvantage status of agriculture and establishing the national logistics networks system with reasonable arrangement, the government need provide guidance and aid for some area such as the hardware layout of the logistics networks, software of management system, information exchanging and the logistics main bodies namely logistics cooperational organization etc.更多还原