【作者】 乔雯；

【导师】 易法海；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 中国与其近邻日本和韩国有着极为悠久的农业经贸交流历史。自20世纪90年代以来,中国与日韩两国在农业贸易、投资、科教及渔业等诸多领域的交流和合作不断加强,日韩两国不仅是中国农产品出口的两大重要市场,也是我国农业利用外资的重要来源。进入新世纪后,中国与日韩两国的农业经贸关系面临着新形势,农产品出口快速增长的同时贸易摩擦的频率明显增加、日韩对华农业投资快速升温、日韩两国农产品进口壁垒增高等。因此,研究新形势下中国与日韩两国的农业经贸关系十分必要。本文坚持描述性分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合的原则,采用历史研究、对比分析、归纳分析、统计指数分析和计量模型分析法,分析了中国与日韩两国农业经贸关系发展的历史与现状,揭示了农业经贸关系的变动态势,剖析了影响农业经贸关系发展的主要因素,并对中国与日韩两国农业贸易的发展前景进行了探讨。研究的主要成果如下:1.中国与日韩两国农业的竞争性与互补性。中日韩三国在农业基本生产条件、物质投入水平、农业生产结构、生产率、农户收入水平及食物消费等方面的相似与差异决定了中国与日韩两国农业的竞争性与互补性共存。其中,竞争性主要表现在出口农产品的相似度较大,在世界深加工农产品市场上的竞争日趋激烈:除农业资源和农业科技优势互补外,中国与日韩两国在农产品贸易上也存在较强的互补性,指数分析显示,中国与日韩两国之间不仅形成了很紧密的农产品贸易联系,而且在农产品的比较优势上存在显著差异,即中国在水产品、园艺产品等劳动密集型产品上具有很强的比较优势,日韩两国在食品、调味品、树胶树脂等中间产品和深加工产品具有较强的比较优势。2.中国与日韩两国农业贸易的增长与结构变动。分析表明,(1)中国对日韩两国的农产品出口增长迅速,主要得益于劳动密集型农产品出口的增长;对日韩农产品出口增长的推动类型在加入WTO前后发生了变化,即在入世前一个时期,对日韩两国农产品出口增长都属于竞争力效应推动型,但入世以来的5年间,对日农产品出口的增长主要由竞争力效应与需求效应共同推动,对韩农产品出口的增长主要由需求效应推动;(2)中国对日出口以水产品和园艺产品为主,对韩出口则以水产品、园艺产品和谷物产品为主;在出口水产品中,对日出口以鱼制品和甲壳软体制品为主,对韩出口以鲜活冷藏冷冻的鱼和甲壳软体为主:对日韩出口水果和肉类产品中,深加工产品所占比重不断上升;对日韩出口蔬菜以调理加工类、保鲜类和冷冻类为主,且冷冻蔬菜所占比重不断上升;进口结构方面,我国从日本进口以水产品和杂项食品为主,且这两类产品所占比重不断提升;从韩国进口以水产品和食糖为主,且水产品取代食糖成为进口的第一大类别;(3)我国对日韩两国的农产品价格贸易条件整体趋于恶化,但对日韩农产品出口数量指数都持续快速攀升,说明对日韩农产品出口利益的增加主要依靠数量扩张。对农业生产资料贸易增长与结构变动的分析表明,中、日、韩三国不仅在世界农资产品贸易中占有十分重要的地位,且三国之间互为重要的农资产品贸易伙伴:中日、中韩双边农资贸易在入世后进入快速发展阶段,我国农资产品贸易逆差规模也随之扩大:我国对日出口农资产品以农机、饲料和化肥为主,进口以农机产品为主:对韩出口农资产品以农机与饲料为主,进口则以农机与农膜为主;技术差距是造成上述贸易格局的重要原因。3.日韩对华农业直接投资的特点、诱因与效应。分析表明,(1)日韩对华农业投资主要集中在食品与饮料制造业;投资方式存在明显的差异;投资主体是大中型食品企业和综合商社;投资动机由追求资源逐步转向市场开拓。(2)日韩两国农业比较优势的丧失与边际产业的转移、中国劳动力资源丰富且工资水平低廉、我国极其优惠的农业引资政策以及双边经贸联系日趋紧密,是日韩两国企业来华投资农业的主要诱因;(3)日韩对华农业投资会显著地促进农业GDP的增长,人均农业FDI(外商直接投资)每增加1个百分点,会带动人均农业GDP增加0.051个百分点,此外,还会产生技术外溢、产业结构和政策调整效应;日本对华农业投资与双边农产品贸易间存在互补关系,有利于促进中国进口日本农产品的增长。但是,中国对日农产品出口与日本农业投资之间不存在长期和短期的格兰杰因果关系。4.影响农业经贸关系发展的国际与国别因素。分析表明,《农业协定》有关承诺的履行有利于促进我国劳动密集型农产品对日韩出口的快速增长;《SPS协定》和《TRIPS协定》在短期会对我国农产品对日韩出口产生负面效应,但从中长期看,有利于出口结构改善、产品质量提升。从国别因素看,我国对日韩出口农产品所具有的生产成本与价格优势、中日韩三国政府农产品出口促进力度的增强,是导致中国与日韩两国农产品贸易规模不断扩大的重要因素;我国出口农产品质量的整体水平不高、出口公共信息服务和农产品加工产业相对落后、农产品出口企业的无序竞争行为已成为制约我国对日韩农产品出口进一步增长的主要障碍。5.中国与日韩两国农业贸易的前景展望。本文简要探讨了新一轮农业谈判、双边与区域贸易开放对中国与日韩两国农产品贸易的影响,以及供求水平和贸易互补性对中国与日韩两国农业生产资料贸易的影响,认为在未来一段时期内,农业贸易格局会保持相对稳定,但中韩自贸区的建立将对双边农业贸易产生一定的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 China shares a long history of agricultural economic and trade exchange with its neighboring countries-Japan and Korea (J&K). Since the 1990s, China has strengthened agricultural exchange and cooperation with J&K in a lot of fields such as trade, investment, science and education and fishery etc. For China, the two countries are not only important agricultural export destinations, but also significant foreign investors in agriculture. After entering the 21st century, the agricultural economic and trade relationship is confronted with new circumstances, there are more trade disputes arising from expansion of agricultural trade, rapid increase in investment by Japanese and Korean agribusiness companies and more stringent import regulations for agricultural products. Therefore, it’s extremely necessary to study China’s agricultural economic and trade relations with J&K under such circumstances.Based on the principles of combining description analysis with positive analysis and qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, by using historical research, contrast, induction, statistical index and econometric model analytic methods, the dissertation examines the history and existing state of China’s agricultural economic and trade relationship with J&K, reveals the changing trends of this relationship, analyzes factors affecting the development of agricultural trade relations, and explores the prospect of China’s agricultural trade with J&K. The main achievements are as follows:1. China’s agricultural competition and complement with J&K. The similarities and differences in basic production condition, capital input, production structure, productivity, rural household income and food consumption determine the co-existence of China’s agricultural competition and complement with J&K. The competition lies in strong product similarity of agricultural exports in three countries, and increasingly fierce competition in world processed agricultural products market; the complementary lies in agricultural resources, science and technology, and also in agricultural trade, various trade indexes show that, China has formed very close agricultural trade connections with J&K, and there are notable differences in comparative advantage of agricultural products between China and J&K, that is to say, China has very strong comparative advantage on labor-intensive products such as aquatic product and horticultural product, J&K have stronger comparative advantage on intermediate and processed products such as food, condiment and gum resin. 2. The growth and structural change of China’s agricultural trade with J&K. The analysis shows that, (1) thanks to the expansion of labor-intensive product export, Chinese agricultural export to J&K has experienced very rapid growth; the factors pushing this export growth have changed before/after entering WTO, that is, during a certain period before joining WTO, both competitiveness effect and demand effect propel Chinese agricultural export to J&K, however, in the next stage, both competitiveness effect and demand effect propel Chinese agricultural export to Japan, only demand effect propels export to Korea; (2) aquatic and horticultural products are main categories exported to Japan, and aquatic, horticultural and grain products are main categories exported to Korea; as for aquatic products, prepared fish, crustaceans and molluscs are main products exported to Japan, while fresh/frozen fish, crustaceans and molluscs are main products to Korea; as for the export of fruits and meat products, the share of deeply-processed products is increasing steadily; as for vegetables, the prepared, fresh and frozen are main products exported to J&K, and the share of frozen vegetables is rising quickly; as for the import structure, aquatic products and miscellaneous products are the main groups imported from Japan by China, and the shares of these two groups are getting higher, while China primarily imports aquatic products and sugar from Korea, and aquatic products have already substituted sugar becoming the first big category; (3) although the terms of agricultural trade between China and J&K tend to become worse, the export quantum index is rising rapidly and steadily, which indicates the growth of export benefits is mainly dependent on the expansion of quantity.The analysis of agricultural materials trade shows that, China, Japan and Korea are not only important players in the world agricultural material products trade market, but also each other’s vital trade partners; after joining WTO, the growth of Sino-Japan and Sino-Korea agricultural material trade is very fast, and China’s trade deficit becomes large as well; as for the trade structure, China mainly exports agricultural machines, feed and fertilizers to and imports agricultural machines from Japan, mainly exports agricultural machines and feed to and import agricultural machines and agricultural film from Korea; the above trade pattern is primarily caused by technical gaps.3. The features, incentives and effects of agricultural FDI from J&K. The analysis shows that, (1) agricultural FDI concentrates in food and beverage manufacturing industry; there are obvious differences between Japan’s and Korea’s investment method; large and medium food companies and comprehensive business organizations are main investors; investment motives gradually shifts from resources-pursuing to market-developing; (2) the main incentives include: the lost of comparative advantage in Japan’s and Korea’s agriculture and the transfer of marginal industry, China’s abundant labor resources and low wage levels, China’s extremely preferential policies for agricultural investment bodies, and the increasingly close bilateral economic and trade ties; (3) agricultural FDI from J&K can significantly promote the growth of China’s agricultural GDP, 1 percent increase in per capita agricultural FDI (foreign direct investment) will cause 0.051 percent increase in per capita agricultural GDP. It can also bring technical spill-over, industrial structure and policy adjustment effects; there do exist complementary relations between Japan’s agricultural FDI in China and bilateral agricultural trade, that is, Japan’s investment helps to promote the growth of China’s agricultural imports from Japan. However, there is no Granger relation between FDI and agricultural exports to Japan both in the short and long run.4. International and country-specific factors affecting agricultural economic and trade relations. The analysis shows that, the implementation of the commitments according to "Agreement on Agriculture" helps to promote the rapid growth of China’s labor-intensive agricultural exports to J&K; "SPS Agreement" and "TRIPS Agreement" will have negative effects on China’s agricultural exports to J&K in the short run, but help improve the export structure and upgrade product quality in the medium and long run. From country-specific perspective, the important factors leading to the increasing expansion of agricultural exports to J&K are, China’s advantage in agricultural production cost and price, and the enhancement of governments’ efforts to promote agricultural export; meanwhile, the relatively low level of quality for China’s agricultural products, poor public information services and processing industry and disorderly competition behavior between exporting enterprises, have become major obstacles to the growth of China’s agricultural exports to J&K.5. The prospect of China’s agricultural trade with J&K. The paper briefly discusses the impact of the new round of negotiations on agriculture, bilateral or regional trade liberalization on China’s agricultural trade with J&K, and also explores the impact of the level of demand and supply, trade complementarity on China’s agricultural materials trade with J&K. It indicates that, in the next period of time, the current trade patterns will remain relatively stable, but the establishment of FTA between China and Korea will have certain impact on bilateral agricultural trade.更多还原