【作者】 陈其清；

【导师】 冯中朝；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 湖北省地处长江中游,是一个农业大省和全国主要的商品粮基地,也是重要的棉、油、肉产区之一。建国以来湖北省农业和农村经济发展取得了长足进步,但根据社会主义新农村建设“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的20字方针,和“中部崛起”战略的要求来衡量,湖北省最薄弱的环节是农业,差距最大的是农村,收入最低的是农民。湖北农业结构如何调整、农业如何增效、农民如何增收仍然是一个非常严峻的问题。农业属于社会效益大而比较利益低的弱质产业,对整个社会具有正外部性,但在产业竞争中,往往处于不利地位,并存在较多的市场失灵。因此政府必须对农业进行支持和保护,政府财政农业投资是对农业支持和保护的重要措施,这也是当前农业发展在加入WTO之后面临新的环境、取消农业税和跨入社会主义新农村建设的新的历史阶段的客观要求。因此,探索和研究湖北省公共财政农业投入问题,更为有效地发挥政府公共财政对农业投资职能,推动湖北省农业发展,显得尤为迫切。论文在通过对已有研究成果进行梳理的基础上,对公共财政农业投入的内涵和相关理论基础进行界定与阐述,从定性的角度比较全面地对湖北省公共财政农业投入的体制变迁与变迁做出评价;从定量的角度对湖北省公共财政农业投入的历史变迁与现状、规模与效益进行数学模型的分析,分析其中存在的主要问题,找出湖北省公共财政农业投入的优先序,并对湖北省未来几年内的公共财政农业投入资金需求做出预测;对公共财政农业投入的主体——政府行为进行检视和分析,确定政府在农业领域内的投资职能与公共财政农业投入的边界;然后对国外农业财政政策和公共财政农业投入进行经验比较,借鉴其基本做法;考察WTO《农业协定》下的有关公共财政农业投入的规则,综合分析其框架下政府投资的空间与湖北省的农业补贴问题:最后依据上述研究,对强化湖北省公共财政农业投入提出具体的政策建议措施,希望能够对优化和改善湖北省的公共财政农业投入政策有所裨益。全文共分作八章:第一章为导论。阐述整个论文的选题背景、研究目的以及研究的意义,主要研究内容与研究框架,指出技术路线和全文拟解决的关键性问题,并给出关键性概念的内涵界定。第二章,公共财政农业投入的基础理论。阐述了农业投资与农业发展以及整个国民经济发展的关系,探讨政府公共投资资金介入到农业投资的理论依据,为后续各个章节的研究奠定整个理论基础。第三章,湖北省公共财政农业投入的历史变迁与现状考察。对我国历史上的公共财政农业投入管理体制的演变进行分析和评价,并着重对湖北省历年来的公共财政农业投入的总体运行情况进行分析,揭示其周期性波动和结构特征,找出其存在的问题、弊端以及成因。第四章,湖北省公共财政农业投入的绩效评价与预测。这是论文最核心的部分,首先利用现代计量经济学中的双元协整理论和Granger因果关系检验,建立误差修正模型(ECM),探讨了湖北省公共财政农业投入与农业经济增长的长期均衡关系以及因果关系,而后利用经典Cobb-Douglas生产函数对湖北省公共财政农业投入资金的使用效益进行效果评价,最后是利用逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)增长曲线和三和值法对未来几年内湖北省公共财政农业投入资金的需求进行预测。第五章,公共财政农业投入的主体行为检视与分析。主要是从公共财政农业投入的主体——政府的行为分析出发,从理论上分析探讨政府的投资职能,确定公共财政农业投入的投资边界,并对其行为特征进行分析。第六章,国外农业财政政策与公共财政农业投入的比较和借鉴。总结世界上主要国家的公共财政农业投入模式与主要概况,并进行借鉴,希望能够对完善湖北省公共财政农业投入措施提供帮助。第七章,WTO框架下政府投资空间与湖北省农业补贴。首先在WTO的框架下考察湖北省公共财政农业投入的主要方式,以及公共财政农业投入的重点内容,然后对湖北省的农业补贴问题进行系统研究。第八章,强化湖北省公共财政农业投入的基本思路与政策措施。在前面分析的基础上,提出了新时期内完善湖北省公共财政农业投入政策的基本思路,包括其基本特征与目标体系,然后是具体的实现路径和配套政策措施。本文在借鉴国内外相关研究成果的基础上,力图在以下几个方面有所创新:(1)湖北省公共财政农业投入的绩效评价问题。运用现代计量经济学方法,对湖北省公共财政农业投入资金对农业经济增长的贡献、使用效果进行评价,找出其中可能存在的问题,充分认识到公共财政农业投入资金对于湖北省农业发展的重要作用。(2)本研究从湖北省公共财政农业投入的历史变迁与现状考察出发,对湖北省历年来公共财政农业投入的总体运行情况进行评价,揭示了其周期性波动和结构特征,找出其中可能存在的问题、弊端以及成因。(3)本研究的最终落脚点是强化湖北省公共财政农业投入的基本思路与政策措施,在全面把握世界主要国家公共财政农业投入政策的现实选择与未来走向基础上,剖析WTO框架对公共财政农业投入与农业补贴的影响及其应对策略,提出新时期内完善湖北省公共财政农业投入政策的基本思路和配套政策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hubei Province is situated at the middle reaches of Yangtze River. It is an agricultural province and national marketable grain base, as well as the important area of producing cotton, oil and meat. The agriculture and rural economic development of Hubei has made considerable progress over times, but according to " developing production, ample life, civil custom, neat accommodation, democratic management" 20 characters policies of the new socialism rural reconstruction, as well as the request of "middle rising" strategy, the agriculture is the weakest link in Hubei, the countryside has the biggest disparity, and the income of peasants is lowest. It is still a extremely stern and headachy question how to adjust agrarian structure in Hubei, how to synergize the agriculture, how to increase income of peasants. The agriculture is a weak industry which has high social efficiency but low comparative benefit, that is to say, it has the exterior nature to the entire society, but is often in a disadvantageous position in the industrial competition. Therefore the government has to support and protect the agriculture, and the government fiscal agricultural investment is important measure. This is also impersonal request that agricultural tax is canceled, the agriculture strides in the historic stage of new socialism rural reconstruction after joining WTO. Therefore, it is stringent to explore and study government supporting agriculture by finance, display investment function of government fiscal to agriculture effectively and impel agricultural development in Hubei Province.On the basis of combing the present research results, this article defines the connotation of supporting agriculture by finance and elaborates on the relevant theory. The author appraises the evolution of supporting agriculture by finance system of Hubei comprehensively from the qualitative angle. The author also tries mathematic models to analyze the historical changes and current situation, scale and benefit of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei Province from the quantitive angle, analyzes the existing problems, finds out the preference sequence of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei, and forecasts fund the demand of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture in Hubei Province in the next few years. In addition, this article makes an inspection and analysis of government behavior which is the main body of agriculture supporting in finance, and determines the boundary of the investment function of government in agricultural sector and supporting agriculture by finance. And then this article compares and benefits from the experience of the agricultural fiscal policy and supporting agriculture by finance abroad; inspects the rules related to supporting agriculture by finance under WTO "Agricultural Agreement", and analyzes the space of government investment and agricultural subsidy in Hubei Province under the framework. Finally according to the former researches, the author proposes some concrete measures to strengthen supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei with the hope of improving the supporting agriculture by finance policy in Hubei.The dissertation comprises of eight chapters. Chapter one is an introduction which clarifies the background, purpose, significance, main content and framework of this paper, and points out the technical route and crucial questions which would be solved, and gives some crucial concepts. Chapter two, basic theory of agriculture supporting by finance. The author elaborates the relationship between agricultural investment and the agricultural development as well as the entire national economic development, discusses the theoretical basis of government public investment fund involving into the agricultural investment, which lays the groundwork for the following research. Chapter three, historic change and current situation exploration of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei. It analyzes and appraises the evolution of supporting agriculture by finance management system in the history of our country, analyzes the performance of supporting agriculture by finance in general in Hubei over the years emphatically, and analyzes its periodic fluctuation and structure thoroughly, and hopes to discover problems, malpractice as well as origin which possibly exists. Chapter four, economic benefit evaluation and forecast of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei Province. It is the core part. First the author establishes the error correction model (ECM) using the modern economics two-factor co-integration theory and Granger Causality Test, discusses the long-term balanced relationship and the causal relationship between supporting agriculture by finance and agricultural economic growth in Hubei thoroughly, and then appraises the efficiency of the utilization of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture in Hubei by using the classical Cobb-Douglas production function, finally forecasts the demand of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture in Hubei in future years by using the Logistic building-up curve and three-value law. Chapter five, an inspection and analysis of the main body’ s behavior of supporting agriculture by finance. This paper analyzes the investment function of government theoretically, confirms investment boundary of supporting agriculture by finance, and analyzes its characteristic from the government’s behavior. Chapter six, a comparison and reference of agricultural fiscal policy and supporting agriculture by finance abroad. The author summarizes and benefits from the pattern and survey of supporting agriculture by finance in the other main countries, and hopes to provide useful measures to consummate the supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei. Chapter seven, the government investment space and agricultural subsidy in Hubei Province under the framework of WTO. This paper explores the primary ways and main content of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei under the framework of WTO first, and then makes an investigation on agricultural subsidy in Hubei alone. Chapter eight, the basic thought and policy of strengthening supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei Province. This paper proposes basic thought including its characteristic and target system which consummates supporting agriculture by finance policy in the new period, then gives concrete realization path and supporting policies.On the basis of the domestic and foreign research results relevant, this article tries hard to make a breakthrough in following several aspects:(1) Performance evaluation of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei Province. Using the modern econometrics methods, this paper appraises the contribution and effect of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture to the agricultural economic growth in Hubei, finds out problems existing possibly, and realizes the importance of fiscal fund for assisting agriculture to the agricultural development in Hubei fully.(2) From inspecting the history change and current situation of supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei, the paper analyzes and appraises the performance of supporting agriculture by finance in general in Hubei over the years emphatically, and analyzes its periodic fluctuation and structure thoroughly, and hopes to discover problems, malpractice as well as origin which possibly exists.(3) The basic thought and policy of strengthening supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei Province is the point of this paper. On the basis of grasping the realistic choice and trend of supporting agriculture by finance policy in the world, the author anatomizes the influence and countermeasures of WTO framework on supporting agriculture by finance and agricultural subsidy, and gives concrete basic thought of improving supporting agriculture by finance in Hubei and supporting policies in the new period.更多还原