【作者】 李勤志；

【导师】 冯中朝； 谢从华；

【作者基本信息】 华中农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 中国是世界马铃薯生产的种植大国和产量大国,马铃薯产业具有巨大的生产潜力与市场空间。但中国的马铃薯产品在国际市场上缺乏竞争力。随着中国加入WTO,马铃薯的国内市场与国际市场接轨,国外发达国家的优质马铃薯产品大量涌入并抢占中国市场,这对中国马铃薯产业产生强大的冲击。因此,促进中国马铃薯产业的升级十分重要,而马铃薯产业的源头——马铃薯生产的落后成为制约中国马铃薯产业发展的重要瓶颈之一。本文选择中国马铃薯的生产作为研究对象,综合运用实证分析与规范分析相结合、归纳分析与比较分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合,在大量搜集相关数据资料和实地调研的基础上对中国马铃薯生产进行经济分析。本文首先根据研究思路确定了中国马铃薯生产经济分析的技术路线。在这个路线的指引下,先系统考察了中国马铃薯的生产现状与产业现状,在此基础上,测度和分析了中国马铃薯产品的国际竞争力和国内生产的区域优势,然后从投入产出方面和全要素生产率方面深入分析了马铃薯生产的经济效率,并对影响马铃薯产出的因素进行了问卷调查分析和定量模型分析,对国外马铃薯主要生产国家的生产经验进行了总结和借鉴,最后,在前面分析的基础上,从宏观和微观层面对促进中国马铃薯生产发展的对策和建议进行了系统研究。本研究的结果表明:1、马铃薯产品国际竞争力状况。就价格竞争力而言,我国未加工的马铃薯产品国际市场上价格处于中低档水平,具有价格竞争优势;初级加工产品和深加工产品在其主要出口国市场上都不具备价格竞争力。就质量竞争力而言,深加工马铃薯产品在其主要出口国质量都提高得较快,表现出一定的竞争力;未加工马铃薯产品质量在其主要出口国中有的提升、有的保持不变、有的下降,表现出其质量的不稳定性;初级加工产品在其主要出口国中质量下降,缺乏竞争力。就种质资源而言,中国马铃薯品种资源相对于其他马铃薯品种资源丰富的国家不具备优势。2、国内马铃薯生产区域优势。采用综合比较优势指数分析法对全国22个省份1991年到2006年马铃薯生产的综合优势进行分析,结果表明,北方一作区和西南混作区是国内马铃薯生产最具优势的区域。与全国平均水平相比,青海、甘肃、贵州、云南、宁夏、重庆、内蒙古、四川、山西1991年到2006年马铃薯生产均具有综合优势,说明在这些地方马铃薯生产的资源禀赋和后天努力较好地结合在一起了。大多数年份马铃薯生产具有综合劣势的省份是辽宁、新疆、湖南、河北、吉林、广东、西藏、安徽、江西,说明这些地方的马铃薯生产资源禀赋和后天作用结果不佳。3、马铃薯生产投入产出分析。(1)从投入情况看,1989到2005年间,中国马铃薯生产成本先快速上升,后下降并保持稳定,下降的主要原因是得益于科学技术水平的提高导致马铃薯种籽秧苗费用下降和用工数量减少。期间费用总体上呈下降的趋势,主要是销售费用的大幅度减少使得期间费用快速下降。马铃薯生产每亩成本外支出越来越小,表明农民从事马铃薯生产成本之外的额外负担越来越小。各主要生产城市马铃薯生产成本差异的主要原因是处于北方一作区的城市不用外购种薯,所以物质费用低,处于中原二作区和西南混作区的城市需要外购种薯,使得生产成本大幅度上升。(2)从产出情况看,1989—2005年马铃薯每亩产出快速增加。(3)从投入产出率看,1989年到2005年,马铃薯生产的投入产出比在2.5:1到1:1之间,说明从事马铃薯生产投入产出比较高。马铃薯生产成本利润率先快速上升后下降,稳定了一段时间,近两年出现利润下降的现象。各主要马铃薯生产城市投入产出的差异表现为,处于北方一作区的城市虽然种植马铃薯生产成本低,但利润不高,处于中原二作区和西南混作区的城市生产成本较高但获利也更多。4、马铃薯生产全要素生产率分析。运用基于DEA的Malmquist指数法,对1998-2005年主要生产城市马铃薯全要素生产率的增长、技术进步和技术效率变化进行测算的结果表明,主要生产城市全要素生产率在1998年到2005年期间略有上升的趋势,平均增长率为1.1%。但并不是稳定增长的,而是呈现出明显的波动性特征。全要素生产率的增长主要来自于技术效率的改善,技术效率变化率对全要素生产率增长的贡献达到72.7%,技术进步率对全要素生产率增长的贡献仅占27.3%。从空间分布来看,处于中原二作区的城市武汉、济南和青岛全要素生产率增长最快,其次是处于西南混作区城市重庆,全要素生产率增长最慢的是处于北方一季作区的城市乌鲁木齐、呼和浩特、长春和兰州,出现了负增长。5、影响中国马铃薯产出的因素分析。调查分析表明,在影响马铃薯产量和质量的生产技术因素中,种薯是最重要的因素。其次,不同的栽培方式、不同的栽培密度、不同的栽培时间,气候条件也是影响各地马铃薯产出水平不同的重要因素。中国目前大多数地区马铃薯小规模种植的状况对马铃薯产量和质量也产生了较大的影响。1989年到2005年,马铃薯价格的提高对增加马铃薯播种面积进而增加总产出有促进作用。运用Cobb-Douglas函数构建马铃薯生产的Panel Data模型对马铃薯产出的影响因素进行分析,结果表明,影响主要生产城市马铃薯产量的最重要的因素是种籽秧苗费,说明影响马铃薯产量高低的关键在种薯。土壤改良投入、其他物质费用、劳动力投入在马铃薯生产过程中都具有正的弹性,因此继续加大这些费用的投入,对于提高马铃薯产量具有积极作用。6、国外主要国家马铃薯生产经验给我国提供了如下借鉴,第一,各国都十分重视马铃薯种薯生产,制定了严格的种薯认证和检测制度;第二,各国都有完善的马铃薯育种体制;第三,各国重视马铃薯生产技术的发展;第四,各国政府对马铃薯生产的管理宏观、有力、到位;第五,各国马铃薯协会都发挥了巨大作用。本研究基于上述结果提出的对策和建议为:总体布局,统一规划,发展马铃薯生产;培育龙头企业,推进马铃薯的产业化经营;完善马铃薯质量标准制定(修订),建立马铃薯产品认证体系和种薯市场准入制度;加强马铃薯科研工作力度,完善科技服务体系,提高马铃薯生产科技含量;加强马铃薯信息体系建设,及时为生产者提供信息服务;增加马铃薯投入,全面提高马铃薯产出水平;改善经营管理,降低马铃薯生产与经营成本;提高薯农组织化程度,发挥马铃薯行业协会的带动和促进作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the largest country of potato production in the world.There is a big market for China to develop it’ s potato industry.But the potato products especially processing products of china are scarce of international competition.The domestic market and international market of potato will connected with each other after Chinese entry into WTO, then potato products with high quality made by developed countries will pouring into and occupy domestic market,and this will be a strong impact to Chinese potato industry.So,it is very necessary and impendency to change the condition of Chinese potato industry.But the techniques of potato production in China are get behind developed countries and this become the obstacle that preventing Chinese potato industry to get better.So,my research choose the process of Chinese potato production as our object.This dissertation adopts and combines normative analysis together with positive analysis,inductive analysis together with comparative analysis,qualitative analysis together with quantitative analysis to analysis the process of Chinese potato production based on investigating andcollecting a great deal of data and information.This dissertation set up the frame of Chinese potato production analysis base on the theories of many former researchers first.In the guiding of the frame,the dissertation describing the status quo of Chinese potato production and Chinese potato industry,and then analyzed the comparative advantage of Chinese potato production and international competitiveness of Chinese potato products,analyzed the economic efficiency of Chinese potato production by input and output analysis and TFP analysis,analyzed the influencing factors of Chinese potato production by qualitative and quantitative analysis,summing up good potato production experience of developed countries.Base on those analysis,the dissertation put forward advice and countermeasures tor the development of Chinese potato production.The main results as follows:1.The condition of international competitiveness of Chinese potato products.As to the international competitiveness of potato price,th unprocessed potato products had competitiveness because of low price level,primary process products and deep process products had no competitiveness in their main export country market.As to the international competitiveness of potato quality,the quality of deep process products elevate fast in theirs export country market and had competitiveness,the quality of unprocessed products scare of stabilization in their export country market,the quality of primary process products descend in their export country market and scare of competitiveness.As to the resource of potato breed,Chinese potato breed scare of competitiveness compare to other countries.2.Domestic regional comparative advantage.The results of AAI analysis of twenty-two provinces from 1991 to 2006 shows that the north region and southwest region had comparative advantage.Comparing to the national average production level,Qinghai,Ganshu,Guizhou,Yunnan,Ningxia,Chongqing,Neimenggu,Sichuang,Shanxi all had comparative advantage from 1991 to 2006.Liaoning,Xinjiang,Hunan,Hebei,Jilin, Guangdong,Xizang,Anhui,Jiangxi were scare of comparative advantage.3.Input and output analysis of Chinese potato production.(1)As to the condition of input,the cost of Chinese potato production experienced increase fast,then decrease and then keep stabilization from 1989 to 2005,the reason of cost decrease depend on the decrease of potato seed expense and the decrease of labour expense.The costs during production take on the trend of decrease,the reason lays on the decrease of sale costs.The expenditure cost become more and more small,it shows that the expenditure burden of peasants become more and more small.The difference of plating cost between those cities lies in that north region had smallest seed expense because they can buy seed from local place,but central region and southwest region had to buy seed from outside province becase of climate and geographical reasons.(2) As to the condition of output,potato output increased fast from 1989 to 2005.(3) As to the condition of output to input rate,the ratio of output to input range from 2.5:1 to 1:1 from 1989 to 2005,it’s show that the ratio of output to input of potato production is high.The profit to cost rate increased first and than it decreased,and the peasant’s profit decreased in two years.The difference of output to input of main plating cities shows that,the city of north region had low cost but low profit,the city of central region and southwest region had high cost but high profit.4.Analysis of TFP of potato production.We analyzed the increase of potato TFP using Malmquist index from 1989 to 2005.The results shows that,the TFP value of main potato plating cities take on the trend of increase,the average increase rate is 1.1%,but the increase is not stability and take on the feature of fluctual.The increase of TFP due to the progress of technical efficiency,the contribution of technical efficiency to TFP is 72.7%, the contribution of the technical progress is 27.3%.As to the distribution of potato plating cities,the TFP of the city ofWuhan,Jinan and Qingdao who are in central region increased fast,the city of Chongqing who is in southwest region is in the second place,and the TFP of the city of Wulumuqi,Huhehaote,Changchun and Lanzhou who are in north region increased slow.5.As to the influencing factors of Chinese potato production,seed was the most important fact;second,different plant mode and different plant density and different plant time haddifferent influence to the production and quality of potato;third,climate also an important fact;and the scale of acreage also had big influence to potato production and quality;the selling price of potato had positive influence to the increase of potato produce acreage in the past years.We make up the Cobb-Douglas function by using Panel Data model to analyze the influence factors of potato production.The results shows that the costs of potato seed is the most important factor to the yield.The cost of improving soil, other plating cost and the cost of labor has positive role to increase the yield6.The experience of main potato plating countries give us many useful reference.First, those countries are pay much attention to the production of potato seed and develop strict certification and detection system.Second,those countries all have complete seed production system.Third,they pay attention to the development of potato produce thchnology.Fourth,the management to potato industry of those countries are macroscopic. Last,the potato association of those countries play tremendous role.Based on the above analysis,the dissertation put forword some advice and countermeasures.Govemment should plan the potato plating area on the whole.We should develop leading potato enterprises to promote the process of potato industrialization. Correlative department should consummate the establishment or recension of Chinese potato quality standard and establish the manage statute of potato quality security and affirmance system of potato products as soon as possible.Government should establish the market permit and affirmance system of potato seed as soon as possible.Government should strengthen the scientific research of potato and perfect the techlogy service system of potato to improve the technical level of potato production.Correlative department should strengthen the work of potato seed market information,thus the producer can obtain related information timely.Government should increase the input to potato industry to improve the output level of potato production.We should improve the potato production management level to lower the cost of potato production.We should improve the degree of potato peasant organizations,play the role of potato association to promote the development of potato industry.更多还原