【作者】 刘卫星；

【导师】 冯之浚；

【作者基本信息】 上海大学 ， 工业工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类社会得以存在和发展的基础,但是能源的过度利用不仅带来了能源储量的不断减少,而且造成生态环境的严重污染。改革开放后的多年里,我国在能源领域取得了巨大的成就,但也产生了不少问题,诸如能源供需矛盾加剧、能源利用效率低下、环境污染日益严重等,为社会经济可持续发展带来阻碍。因此建设一个资源消耗低、环境污染少、经济效益好的国民经济体系和资源节约型社会,是我国今后发展的根本目标,也是解决能源矛盾的根本途径。从上海的能源现状看,不但面临着以上问题,而且由于本地不产出一次能源,外来能源是供应上海用能的唯一途径,能源状况并不乐观,因此开展节能减排工作,提高能源利用效率更是当务之急。目前,上海已经开始实施一系列措施以减轻能源瓶颈给上海未来发展带来的制约,但是对于上海这个社会经济高速发展的国际性大都市来说,是否能够做到能源的可持续发展将会对其社会经济发展产生直接的影响,如何合理实现上海能源的可持续发展已成为一个非常现实的问题。因此,本论文的主要研究目的就在于,以多学科交叉的视角,对能源与可持续发展关系展开全面的理论分析,努力构筑描述能源可持续发展的理论体系,并建立能源可持续发展评价体系,对上海能源可持续发展状况做出判断,提出富有针对性和可操作性的能源可持续发展战略。本论文主要采取了定性与定量分析相结合、宏观分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法。通过利用可持续发展理论、能源发展理论等理论,分析上海能源现状,对比国内外其它城市,具体问题具体分析,提出一系列符合上海经济发展特征的理论研究成果和能源战略政策。本论文的主要成果及创新之处表现在以下几个方面:1.进一步界定了能源可持续发展的概念。指出能源可持续发展就是将能源系统与环境、社会、经济发展密切联系起来,通过能源战略的制定和实施来促进区域可持续发展目标的实现。能源可持续发展的关键就是能源战略与区域可持续发展相互作用的内在机制的揭示。2.进行上海市能源需求情景分析,建立能源需求预测模型。按照上海经济建设和城市发展的需要,上海的环境资源不得不面临一定压力。这种压力的大小与上海未来的经济增长方式、人口增长、产业结构、科技进步、居民消费方式等有直接关系。论文以可持续发展为前提,对不同情景下的能源需求状况进行了预测,以便为政策制定者在制定能源发展战略时作为参考。3.通过对能源可持续发展系统的影响因素的分析,建立了能源可持续发展评价模型与评价指标体系。从影响主题上看,能源可持续发展评价系统包括经济主题、社会主题和环境主题三大部分。4.通过对能源安全因素的分析构建了上海能源安全预警监测体系。该体系从能源整个生产——利用角度考虑,包括以下五个模块:能源资源安全、能源供应通道安全、能源市场安全、能源消费安全和综合安全评价模块。其中能源资源安全模块将包括石油,天然气,煤炭,电力四个子模块;综合安全模块则包括环境和效率两个子模块。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is the basis on which human society maintains and develops. However, the ecessive use of energy resources not only brings reduction of available energy reserves, but also causes serious environmental pollution. During the past 20 years after our county reformed and opened up, we made much progress in energy field. Meanwhile there were a lot of problems on energy development and usage. Energy sustainable development was more and more important and more serious problems would come out if there were no rational measures.It will be the ultimate task and means of Chinese future development to construct a kind of national economics system and society with less energy consumption, less environmental pollution, better economical benefitShanghai energy situation is not optimistic, Shanghai is not an energy output, external energy supply is the only way to Shanghai, reduction in energy-saving work, and improving the efficiency of energy use is imperative.At present Shanghai has carried out a series of measures to soften the impact of bottleneck restrictions on energy resources on future economical development. But Shanghai is an international metropolis, sustainable development strategy will be the most important thing in energy production. Sustainable development of Shanghai has been directly affecting national energy safety. It will be a realistic problem how to arrange sustainable development on Shanghai energy.The main purpose of the paper is that a comprehensive theoretical analysis about the relationship between energy and sustainable development, describing the theory systems of energy sustainable development,building evaluation system of energy sustainable development and evaluating the status of energy sustainable development in Shanghai, proposing targeted and feasible sustainable development strategy for energy.This paper adopts qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, macroeconomic analysis and empirical analysis and study Shanghai energy status with the theory of sustainable development, energy development theory and other theories.At last the paper has put forward a series theoretical research results and strategic energy policy which conform with Shanghai’s economic development characteristic.The main achievements and new ideas of this paper lie in the following fields:1. Gives a definition about sustainable energy development. What is called sustainable energy development is that, integrated energy system closely with environment, society and economy development, to promote the regional sustainable development aim by making and implementing energy strategies. The crux of sustainable energy development is to reveal the inner mechanism interacted by energy strategy and regional sustainable development. 2. According to scenario analysis of Shanghai’s energy requirement, the paper set up the energy demand forecast model. According to Shanghai’s economic development and urban development needs, Shanghai’s environmental resources have to face some pressure. The pressure is related to Shanghai’s future economic growth, population growth, industrial, scientific and technological progress and the residents consumption patterns.the paper bases on sustainable development and forecasts for different scenarios of energy requeiment.It can provide reference for the policy makers to formulate an energy development strategy.3. Sets up an evaluation model and evaluation index system on energy sustainable development system by analyzing its influencing factors. From its influencing themes, the evaluation system of energy sustainable development system contains three parts as economic theme, the theme of social and environmental.4. Built energy security monitoring and pre-warning system by analyzing factors affecting appraising energy security. The system includes the following five modules: security of energy resources module, security of energy supply channel module, security of energy market module, energy consumption security module and evaluation of comprehensive security module from the perspective of production—using.更多还原