【作者】 刘玥；

【导师】 聂锐；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的不断发展,区域资源的互补性、产业的互动性、产业区域布局的关联性进一步增强,由此而引发的产业联动发展日益受到企业界与学术界的关注。其中作为我国能源资源富集但经济相对落后的西部地区其能源产业与相关产业、相关区域的联动发展成为研究的热点,如何通过产业联动将西部的能源资源优势转化为经济优势更成为热点中的焦点。但现有研究多停留在对产业联动这一术语的应用阶段,缺乏系统理论,存在研究空白,使得国家制定相关政策、企业进行投资决策时缺乏理论依据。为此,本文在深入研究相关理论的基础上,首先构建了产业联动的基本理论体系,包括产业联动的基本概念、产业联动系统的构成及其影响因素、产业联动系统的联动机制以及联动效应。初步建立了较为系统的产业联动理论框架,填补了理论研究的空白。在理论研究的基础上,本文引入复杂网络的研究思路,运用数学建模与计算机模拟的研究方法,构建了产业联动系统的网络模型及其演化模型。通过计算机模拟验证表明,建立的择优演化模型对现实产业联动网络具有较高的说明能力和预测能力,且运行可靠、稳定,为产业联动网络的定量研究提供了可行的研究方法。为推进产业联动网络的实践运用,本文在演化模型研究的基础上,构建了产业联动网络的分析范式。提出了从演化得到的产业联动网络全图中抽取产业和区域联动子图的方法及其分析指标,通过对指标的测度能够确定可联动的产业和区域。并针对特定区域产业建立了最优联动路径的搜寻方法,最后提出了基于数据包络分析(DEA)的产业联动网络整体联动效率的评价方法。该分析范式能够从复杂的产业联动网络结构中获取对产业联动有价值的经济管理信息,为理论与现实搭建了桥梁。最后,本文运用建立的理论、模型和分析方法对我国能源产业,尤其是西部能源产业的联动发展进行实证研究。通过对产业联动时序网络的研究,界定了可与能源产业联动的核心产业;通过对能源产业区域空间联动网络的研究,界定了基于能源可联动的核心区域;通过对我国能源产业核心联动网络联动效率测度,发现技术效率及区域分割是导致我国能源产业核心联动网络联动效率损失的主要因素,技术效率的损失主要体现在西部地区,区域分割则体现为产业联动不足,认为解决这两大问题的必由之路在于在西部能源开发与利用中实施产业联动。本文在深入研究西部地区实际情况的基础上,确定了西部地区适宜发展的主导能源产业群,并找到其核心联动路经。实证研究的完成明确了西部能源开发利用中产业联动的发展路线,将为国家制定相关政策及企业投资提供理论指导和依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of China’s economy, there is being enhanced in the complementarity of regional resource, the interaction of industry, and the linkage of industrial regional distribution. Therefore, the interactive development of linked regional industry has come into notice of both academia and commercial interests. The interactive development between the western energy industries and correlative regional industries, and how the western region, where is rich in energy resource but poor in economic development, transforms its resource advantage into economic advantage through industry linkage, have been the focus of researches. But all present researches still steadied in the stage of just using the Industry Interaction or Industry Linkage term, where is blank of the system theory. So there is lack of theoretical basis on making related national policy and investment decision.To meeting actual needs and filling blanks in researches, based on thorough study on related theory, this paper firstly construct theoretical system of industry linkage, which include the definition of Industry Linkage, the elements and its influence factors of industry linkage system, the linkage mechanism and the effects of the system.Based on the study of industry linkage theory, this paper secondly introduces the research thought and method of Complex Networks and applies it to construct the Industry Linkage Network. Making use of mathematical modeling and computer simulating, the stochastic and optimal evolvement models of the industry linkage network are constructed. The computer simulations show that the optimal evolvement model can reflect the real industry linkage system more accurately and reliably and can be used in the forecast research. The optimal evolvement model provides a feasible quantitative research method on the research of industry linkage network.Based on the study of evolvement models, in order to promote the application of the industry linkage network, this paper thirdly constructs the analysis frame on the industry linkage network, which divides into four parts. The first part put forewords the method which extract the sequential industry linkage sub graph and the spatial region linkage sub graph form the industry linkage network. The second part constructs the analysis indexes of the extracted sub graphs. Through analyzing the indexes, the industries and regions which could interactively develop based on their linkages can be determined. The third part presents a search method of optimal linkage path to a certain regional industry. Lastly, the evaluation method of linkage efficiency is proposed basically on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Acted as a bridge from theory to practice, the analysis frame is helpful to get valuable information from the complex industry linkage network.Based on the above researches, this paper lastly empirically study on the linkage of energy industries, especially on the western energy industries. Through the analysis of sequential industry linkage network, the main industries which could interactively develop with energy industries based on their linkages are determined. Through the analysis of spatial region linkage network, the main regions which could interactively develop with each other based on the energy are also determined. Through the efficiency evaluation of the core energy industry linkage network, the conclusion which the technical efficiency and region segmentation is the key factors that lead to efficiency loss of the core energy industry linkage network is made. Because the technical efficiency mainly lies in the western region and the region segmentation is the lake of industry linkage, the solution is to promote the western energy industry linkage. Therefore, on the basis of analyzing on the actual conditions in the western region, this paper obtains the leading energy industry group and its key linkage path suitable for the western region. This research achievement provides the theoretical basis for making associated policies and investment decisions.更多还原