【作者】 赵玉甫；

【导师】 王要武；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着社会的高度发展,人类生存与自然环境的基本矛盾日益尖锐化,使得人类面临严峻的挑战,可持续发展提到日程上来。可持续发展是世界进步的标志,以可持续发展理论为核心的宏观战略方案己经在世界上许多国家宏观决策和经济展望中得以认可,各学科、各行业都在结合各自特色,探讨如何将可持续发展的原则渗入到本学科、本行业的各个方面,并从技术策略上保证得以实现。本文正是从这一时代背景出发,研究城市供热可持续发展问题。基于上述目标,本文运用系统动力学、循环经济学和可持续发展理论的基本原理、方法,以可持续发展理论为指导,从系统观点出发,以城市供热发展过程中城市供热模式,包括热源、热网、热用户,以及系统发展的外部因素,包括资源、环境、技术、价格等各子系统的协调发展为研究主线,对城市供热可持续发展及其模式进行了较为系统的研究,对国内外供热模式进行系统分析,比较研究,利用熵值评价方法构建了城市供热模式优选模型,进行实证研究得出哈尔滨市最可行的供热模式为热电联产供热模式。运用系统动力学方法研究了城市供热可持续发展的机制,其中供热模式、资源、环境、技术、价格是城市供热可持续发展机制的构成要素,同时又是影响城市供热可持续发展实现的重要因素,本文对热源子系统、热网子系统、热用户子系统、资源子系统、环境子系统、技术子系统、价格子系统进行系统动力学分析后,建立了城市供热可持续发展的系统动力学模型;依据系统动力学模型中变量的因果关系和模型中子系统的关系,按照科学性原则、层次性原则、目标性原则、简明性原则、定量和定性相结合的原则、全面性原则、可比性原则、可操作性原则、政策相关性原则,运用层次分析法,提出了测度城市供热可持续发展水平的评价指标体系和评价模型。对城市供热可持续发展的宏观对策进行分析,包括:增加自然资源的供给,抑制对自然资源的需求,强化自然资源可持续利用的政策措施;构筑可持续发展的环境战略体系和新型机制,落实三大环境保护政策体系,推行供热行业环境保护政策;重点发展和运用能够促进可持续发展的科学技术,采取具体措施促进技术创新,建立城市供热可持续发展的创新机制;成本内化的制度安排和产权管理的制度安排;发展循环经济的对策,用宏观经济调控手段推动城市供热可持续发展。在建立城市供热可持续发展系统动力学模型过程中,本文始终针对不同地域、不同模式下城市供热的共性,抛开不同类型城市供热的个性特点,使城市供热可持续发展的系统动力学模型适用于不同类型城市的供热可持续发展评价,同时便于我国城市之间,甚至与国外城市进行城市供热可持续发展水平的横向比较。在建模的基础上,以哈尔滨市为例,进行了实证研究,利用评价模型对哈尔滨市供热可持续发展水平进行了评价,对哈尔滨市的供热可持续发展提出了政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with society’s high development, the basic contradiction between the human survival and the natural environment intensifies day by day, which causes the humanity faced with the stern challenge, and the sustainable development comes up to the program. The sustainable development is the symbol which the world progresses. The macroscopic strategic plan which takes sustainable development theory as core has been approved in many national macroscopic decisions-making and the economical forecast in the world. Various disciplines and various professions all are unifying respective characteristic, discussing how to permeate the sustainable development principle in each aspect, and realize from the technical strategy. This article embarks from this time background, studies the sustainable development question of heat supply in cities.Based on the above goal, this article utilizes the basic principle and the method of the system dynamics, the circulation economic and the sustainable development theory, takes the sustainable development theory as the instruction, embarks from the system viewpoint, takes city heating pattern in process of heat supply in cities, including the heat source, the hot net, the hot user, as well as the system development exterior factor, including the coordinated development of resources, the environment, the technology, the price and so on as the master line, has conducted the systematic research of the sustainable development and the pattern of heat supply in cities to the city, carried on the system analysis to the domestic and foreign heating pattern, compared with the research, has constructed the city heating pattern optimal model using the entropy value assessment method law, conducted the real diagnosis research to obtain the most feasible heating pattern in Harbin for the thermoelectricity payment proportional to production heating pattern.The paper the sustainable development mechanism of cities’ heat supply by the means of the systems dynamics, in which heating pattern, the resources, the environment, the technology, the price are the integrant parts of sustainable development mechanism of heat supply in cities, simultaneously also was influencing the city’s heat supply sustainable development. This paper firstly analyzes the heat source subsystem, the hot net subsystem, the hot user subsystem, the resources subsystem, the environment subsystem, the technical subsystem and the price subsystem. After that, the paper establishes the model of the city heat supply sustainable development systems. Then the paper establishes the appraisal index system and appraisal model resting on the relationship of the variables in the systems dynamics model and relationship of subsystems in it according to the scientific principle, the layered principle, the goal principle, the simplicity principle, the quota and determines the nature of the principle, the integrity principle, the commeasurable principle, the feasibility principle, the policy relevant principle.Carry on the analysis to the macroscopic countermeasure of heat supply in cities sustainable development, including increasing the supply of natural resource, suppressing the demand to the natural resource, the strengthened of policy measures about natural resource sustainable use; constructs the environment strategy system and the new mechanism of the sustainable development, carries out three environment protection policy system and environmental protection policy of heat supplying profession; develop and utilization science and technology which can promote the sustainable development, adopts the specific measures to promote technological innovation, establishes the city the sustainable development innovation mechanism of heat supply system, the cost internalizes system arrangement and property right management system arrangement, the countermeasure of development circulation economy, impels the sustainable development of heat system in city with the macroscopic economical regulation.In establishing the sustainable development system dynamics model process of heat system in cities, this article throughout aims at the general character in different region and under the different pattern the city heats, abandons individuality characteristic of the different type city heats, causes the sustainable development systems dynamics model to be suitable for the different type city heating sustainable development appraisal, compares simultaneously advantageous between our country city, even the city with the overseas city of the sustainable development level crosswise to. In the model foundation, taking Harbin as the example, has conducted the real diagnosis research, carries on the appraisal about the sustainable development level using the appraisal model to heat system in Harbin, put forward the policy-type proposal to Harbin’s sustainable development of heat supply.更多还原