【作者】 孟庆平；

【导师】 胡金焱；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 财政学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在世界人口老龄化的挑战下,各国的公共养老保险制度都面临支付危机。为了缓解人口老龄化带来的政府支出压力,各国纷纷采取对策对现有的养老保险制度进行全方位改革。其中最突出的一点是在政府与市场主体之间重新划分养老保险责任,将原来主要由政府承担的养老保险责任更多地向市场主体转移,即我们所说的养老保险市场化改革。养老保险市场化改革可以表现在很多方面,首先是养老保险提供机构的市场化,即从原来主要由政府承担养老保险责任转向允许私营机构更多地参与养老保险计划,私营机构可以负责执行所有养老保险计划,也可以只负责保险计划的一部分,还可以创造条件让公共和私营部门竞争;其次是养老保险管理上的市场化,包括对养老保险费用的收缴、管理和待遇的给付等都更多地让私营机构参与,但参与的程度各不相同;再次是养老保险管理费用上的市场化,原来由公共财政通过税收或社会保险费筹集的成本逐渐转化为由个人或雇主直接支付等。我国从20世纪90年代开始进行适应市场经济体制要求的养老保险制度改革,经过近20年的努力,社会养老保险体系的基本框架已经形成。但不管从社会养老保险的覆盖面,还是资金供求状况看,都远远满足不了居民的需求。从社会养老保险的覆盖面看,2005年参加养老保险的职工人数占城镇就业人口的比重为45.1%;占城镇总人口的比重为31.1%;占全国人口比重仅为13.4%。从社会养老保险资金供求状况看,对社会养老保险资金的需求远远大于供给能力,我国社会养老保险面临可持续发展困境;从社会养老保险福利支出水平看,居民从社会养老保险得到的消费融资比例是非常低的,说明社会养老保险支出对居民在退休时发挥的保证作用并不是很强。如果把每年的公共养老保险支出总额除以城镇65岁以上老年人的人口总量,可以看出,这一退休收入占人均非耐用消费品的比重是很低的,说明居民退休后的平均消费靠基本养老保险融资的部分非常微小,或者说政府提供的基本养老保险不足以应付居民退休后的基本生活需要。城镇社会养老保险供不应求的矛盾主要源自资金的限制,在现有的筹资模式下,进一步扩大社会养老保险覆盖面和支出水平都存在很大的局限性,社会养老保险的可持续发展存在巨大的资金缺口。与社会养老保险资金供不应求的现状相对应的是,我国城镇居民储蓄自进入20世纪90年代以来呈逐年上升的趋势,而且居民储蓄的增长态势明显快于居民消费的增长,甚至快于居民可支配收入的增长。快速增长的居民储蓄反映出居民对将来收入、支出不确定性的预防动机,也反映出社会保险的薄弱和不足。在社会养老保险资金存在巨额缺口和城镇居民储蓄居高不下的现实背景下,探讨减轻部分政府养老责任,扩大个人、企业等市场主体承担更多养老保险责任的可行性,并针对现行制度模式提出制度创新就有重要的理论指导意义和实际应用价值。整篇论文围绕养老保险市场化改革这一问题的阐述与在制度实践中的运用展开论述。首先对养老保险市场化改革的相关理论做了分析和界定,然后总结分析了世界各国养老保险制度改革中市场化的运行实践及其对我国的借鉴意义,其次对我国实现养老保险市场化改革的条件进行了比较深入细致的分析,最后针对我国国情提出养老保险市场化改革的制度设计。第二章是对养老保险市场化改革所做的相关理论分析。首先阐明了养老保险从发起人的角度可以分为两大类:政府作为发起人的社会养老保险与市场主体作为发起人的补充养老保险,并对两类养老保险的运行模式做了简要分析,然后提出养老保险市场化改革的实质是实现养老保险供给中政府与市场主体责任的重新划分,由传统的政府承担主要养老保险责任转向由市场主体承担更多的养老保险责任,并对养老保险市场化改革的主要内容和表现做了简要阐述。总括而言,养老保险市场化改革可以从两个方面理解,一方面是政府作为发起人的社会养老保险制度设计上的市场化,主要内容包括现收现付制向基金制或部分基金制的转化,确定受益制向确定缴费制的转化等;还包括政府养老保险水平的不断下降,比如由普享式向收入关联式转化,政府社会养老保险待遇水平的下降等;另一方面体现在“二元”养老保险运行模式的市场化趋势,这主要体现在逐渐降低政府社会养老保险的作用,强化市场作为主体的企业补充养老保险或个人储蓄性养老保险的作用,同时政府还为补充养老保险的发展提供更有利的激励机制或政策优惠等。第三章和第四章主要对世界各国养老保险制度改革中市场化运行的现状做了简要表述并归纳出可供借鉴的经验与教训。世界各国的养老保险制度改革可以分为两大类,即发达国家的养老保险制度改革和发展中国家的养老保险制度改革。发达国家由于经济发展水平、经济体制、社会文化背景等方面的相似性在养老保险领域也有很多相似的地方,从近些年的改革趋势看市场化倾向日趋增强,政府承担的责任逐渐在减轻,而市场主体的责任不断得到强化,这些思想在养老保险制度设计的很多方面都有所体现,通过对这些国家养老保险市场化改革的共同趋势及政策选择的简要分析,可以得出可供我们借鉴的东西。与发达国家相比,发展中国家的经济发展水平较低,政府拥有的财力比较薄弱,相应的养老保险制度与发达国家有所不同。而且发展中国家内部不同国家经济发展水平也不同,文化社会背景存在比较大的差异,因此各国养老保险制度的设计和市场化程度存在很大不同,本章选取在养老保险市场化改革方面比较有代表性意义的典型地区和国家进行分别论述,对他们各自在养老保险市场化改革中的主要表现及其可供我们借鉴的地方做了较深入的分析。第五章转向我国,对我国实现养老保险市场化改革的条件做了比较深入细致的分析。首先对我国养老保险制度在人口老龄挑战下面临的困境做了简要表述,然后分析了我国现行养老保险供不应求的矛盾,指出社会养老保险因资金约束面临可持续发展危机,补充养老保险因制度瓶颈等因素滞后发展,接着对城镇较高居民储蓄为市场化养老保险制度提供了发展空间做了较深入的实证分析,最后还结合养老保险市场化对财政、资本市场及经济增长的效应做了实现养老保险市场化改革的必要性分析。第六章提出了在我国进行养老保险市场化改革的制度设计和政策选择。养老保险市场化改革的核心思想是合理界定政府与市场主体在养老保险供给中的责任,确定“二元”养老保险制度向政府和市场方向的倾斜度。因此本章首先用实证分析的方法确定了政府社会养老保险的合理度与合理目标定位,然后对我国建立在个人帐户基础上的强制性个人储蓄性养老保险计划提出了创新的制度设计思路,最后提出鼓励企业补充养老保险和个人自愿性养老保险发展的政府激励措施和制度环境设计。本文主要采用了比较分析的方法、理论与实证相结合的研究方法等。创新之处主要体现在对我国养老保险市场化改革的条件分析以及对政府养老保险合理度界定的政策设计等方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the challenge of worldwide population aging, the public pension systems in many countries are facing fiscal crisis. Many countries’ government are carrying out many kinds of measures to reform the present public pension system in order to release the fiscal pressure. Among which the prominent point is to re-identify the role of government and market playing in bearing the old-age insurance responsibilities, and to extend the role of private sectors in providing pension plans. That is what we referred to as "pension privatization reform".Pension privatization reform could be illustrated from several aspects: First, it means privatization of provision sectors, i.e. more responsibilities of providing pension plans are transferred from government to private sectors. Private sectors could take all the responsibilities of providing pension plans or part of them. Secondly, it means privatization of pension management. This involves much participation of private sectors in collection, management of pension contributions and payment of pension benefits in varying degree. Thirdly, it means privatization of pension management fees. Costs of pension management are bearing more by individuals or employers rather than by taxation or social insurance contributions.We began to implement pension system reform to adapt to market economic system since 1990s. After 20 years’ effort, the framework of social old-age insurance has been established, but the present public pension supply can not meet the demand of all citizens in terms of coverage and fund. In terms of coverage. The employees covered by social old-age insurance system account for 45.1% of total employees, 31.1% of city population and 13.4% of the whole country’s population. In terms of fund, demand for social old-age insurance is far more than supply of fund and the public pension system faces difficulty in sustainable development. In terms of level of benefit of public pension, financial support obtained by citizens from public pension system is very low and it means public pension benefit can not guarantee citizens’ basic consumption after retirement.The conflict between supply and demand of social old-age insurance arises mainly from fund constraint. Under the present financing system it is very difficult to enlarge the coverage of public pension system or increase pension benefit, and the sustainable development of public pension system is facing serious fiscal pressure. In contrast, the household saving in city areas in China has been rising since 1990s, and the growth rate of saving obviously exceeds that of consumption and even revenues. The rapid increase of household saving reflects individuals’ precaution motives for uncertainty of income and expenditures in the future and it also reflects the weakness and insufficiency of social insurance. Under the reality of insufficient public pension fund and large household saving, it is useful to discuss to limit government’s role and to extend private sectors’ role in bearing the responsibilities of old-age insurance and it is also valuable to propose pension system innovation.This dissertation clarifies some basic theories of pension privatization reform and discusses its application to system design. The dissertation illustrates the meaning of pension privatization reform, and then analyzes and generalizes the pension privatization practices and experiences in some typical countries, and then analyzes the conditions of pension privatization reform in China, and at last it proposes some suggestions on pension system design.The major part of dissertation can be divided into five chapters.Chapter 2 is a theoretical analysis on pension privatization reform. In this chapter we argue that pension system can be divided into two broad categories in terms of provider: public pension with government being provider and supplementary pension with private sectors being providers. We simply analyzed the running model of these two kinds of pension plans and proposed that the nature of pension privatization reform is to re-identify the role of government and market in pension provision. The trend in this respect is to narrow government’s role and extend market’s role. And the major contents and characteristics of pension privatization are discussed too in this chapter. In general, pension privatization reform can be explained as follow: first, it means privatization of public pension system, including: pay-as-you-go system being replaced by fully-funded or partially-funded system, defined benefit system being replaced by defined contribution system, decreasing public pension benefit etc. secondly, it means privatization of dual pension system, i.e. the role of government in pension provision could be limited and that of private sectors could be extended and government could offer private pension plans more incentive systems or preferential policies.Chapter 3 and 4 introduce present situation and reform trend of pension privatization in some typical countries and generalize experiences useful to us. The pension system reform in the world can be divided into two categories: reform in developed countries and in developing countries. In Chapter 3 we analyzed the common characteristics of pension privatization reform in developed countries and found out experiences that we can learn and problems that we should be prudent of. And in Chapter 4 we select some typical developing countries in pension privatization reform and analyzed the major reform measures and what we can learn.Chapter 5 focuses on the conditions of pension privatization reform in China. The first section states the difficult situation that China’s pension system is facing under the challenge of population aging. The second section shows the conflict between demand and supply of pension plans and point out our pension system is facing crisis of sustainable development due to insufficient fund supply. The third section puts emphasis on the analysis of household saving and our empirical research shows that high household saving provides rooms for pension privatization reform. The last section believes that pension privatization reform is available in China through the impact analysis of pension privatization on public finance, capital market and economic growth.Chapter 6 put forward suggestions on system design of pension privatization in China. We believe that the key point of pension privatization lies in the rational identification of the role of government and market in pension provision. So in the first section we propose the rational degree and targeting of public pension plans. And in the second section we argue that private saving pension plans based on individual accounts should be enlarged and we propose some system innovation suggests as well. In the last section we state that government should design more incentive motives for the development of supplementary pension plans. The comparative method and normative and positive analysis are employed in this dissertation. The creative points include analysis of conditions of pension privatization in China and identification of rational degree of public pension plans etc.更多还原