【作者】 魏巍；

【导师】 范爱军；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在当前全球多边贸易谈判进展缓慢的背景下,区域经济合作——其中绝大多数是以自由贸易区(FTA)的形式,在世界各地蓬勃开展起来。近年来中韩两国政府也表现出了组建自由贸易区的意愿。2007年4月,中国总理温家宝在访问韩国时曾积极呼吁双方应尽早就中韩自贸区提出双赢方案,为建立自贸区奠定基础。这期间韩国总统卢武铉也表示,韩方将以积极的态度和诚意对待两国自贸区的研究。但贸易自由化从来都是一把双刃剑,中韩自由贸易区在给两国带来巨大发展机遇的同时,也会带来严峻的挑战。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,在资源和劳动密集型产业方面具有比较优势,而在资本和技术密集型产品方面具有比较劣势,而韩国在农业和劳动密集的低技术产业方面具有比较劣势,在资本技术密集型产业方面具有比较优势,随着中韩自由贸易区的建立,两国的劣势产业将会遭受巨大冲击。源于对这种冲击的恐惧,两国相关产业部门对建立中韩自由贸易区存在着较大的顾虑。因此,为了尽可能地降低加入自由贸易区的调整成本,扫除中韩自由贸易区实现道路上的障碍,深入研究中韩自由贸易区的预期经济效应就显得非常必要。本文要解决的主要问题有:1、中韩两国贸易互补性如何,双方能不能互相提供市场支持;2、中韩自由贸易区建立后对两国宏观经济的影响如何;3、中韩自由贸易区建立后对中国弱势产业的影响如何,以及我们应采取何种应对措施;4、我国应选择何种战略来积极推进中韩自由贸易区。在中韩自由贸易区研究的理论框架和现实基础上,本文对中韩自由贸易区的预期经济效应进行了实证研究。全文共分为六章,其主要内容如下:第1章为本文的导论。其主要内容包括:本文研究的背景及意义、研究的内容与思路以及创新之处等。第2章为中韩自由贸易区预期经济效应研究的理论基础和文献综述。本章旨在为下文的实证研究提供理论分析框架和研究的出发点。具体内容包括自由贸易安排理论发展述评、自由贸易区的经济效应分析以及中韩自由贸易区相关研究综述。通过对自由贸易区理论研究和中韩自由贸易区实证研究进行综述,发现并指出现有研究存在的不足之处,并在此基础上提出本文研究的任务和目标。第3章从技术结构角度分析了中韩两国贸易关系的互补性特征,以探求中韩自由贸易区建立的现实基础和可行性。实践表明,成员国间存在紧密而互补的贸易关系是组建自由贸易区的一个非常重要的前提条件。鉴于此,本章首先考察了中韩两国双边贸易合作的现状,然后在对产品按技术含量进行重新归类的基础上,分别从双边贸易和国际市场两个角度研究了中韩两国贸易的互补性特征。研究结论表明,经过15年的超高速增长,中韩两国的贸易联系已非常紧密,相互之间已成为对方最重要的贸易伙伴之一。通过对中韩双边贸易互补性和出口产品竞争性的分析,本文得出结论:中韩两国的贸易和产业结构存在着差异性、层次性和互补性特征,且这三种性质动态来看有进一步增强的趋势,目前两国已具备组建自由贸易区的现实基础。中韩自由贸易区的建立在给中国资源型和低技术制造业带来巨大利益的同时,短期内会对中国的中等技术产业带来冲击。此外,由于两国在高技术产品领域已经形成了较为紧密的垂直型产业内分工和基于价值链的产品内分工关系,因此中韩自由贸易区的建立,不仅不会对我国的高技术产业带来冲击,而且还有利于进一步深化两国间高技术产业的合作,从而达到迅速提升我国产业国际竞争力和促进产业结构升级之目的。第4章对中韩自由贸易区的预期宏观经济效应进行分析。本章主要从宏观层面定量分析了申韩自由贸易区的建立对两国间贸易流量、贸易模式以及福利效应的影响。首先,本章研究了中韩自由贸易区的建立对区内贸易的扩大效应,通过把代表自由贸易安排的虚拟变量引入引力方程,证明了自由贸易安排对我国双边贸易有显著的促进作用以及中韩两国目前存在着巨大的贸易潜力,并由此推出中韩自由贸易区的成立必将促进中韩双边贸易规模显著扩大的结论;其次,为了证明中韩自由贸易区除了能带来双边贸易规模扩大的静态效应,同时也会带来双边贸易模式变化的动态效应,本章分析了中韩自由贸易区的成立对双边产业内贸易的影响。通过对两国平均实际关税与双边产业内贸易指数进行协整检验和Granger因果检验,发现两国平均实际关税与双边产业内贸易指数之间存在着长期的协整关系,平均实际关税每下降0.01将导致双边产业内贸易指数上升0.27,并由此推测,中韩自由贸易区成立以后,随着双边贸易壁垒的降低,双边产业内贸易将得到更快的发展,中韩自由贸易区的长期动态收益将呈迅速增加趋势;最后,为了更加全面地论证中韩自由贸易区成立的预期宏观经济效应,本章还借鉴KIEP(2005a)运用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟的结果,进一步分析了中韩自由贸易区的建立对两国GDP、福利、贸易条件和进出口总额的影响,并得出了中韩自由贸易区的成立对以上这些变量均会产生正面、积极效果的结论。第5章分析了中韩自由贸易区成立后的预期产业结构效应。在上文宏观经济效应分析的基础上,本章以中国汽车产业为例,从产业内角度分析了中韩自由贸易区的成立对中国汽车产业的影响。为了能从微观层面研究中韩自由贸易区的组建对中国汽车产业的动态影响,本章在对中韩两国汽车产业的贸易投资现状和关税壁垒进行考察的基础上,运用KIEP(2005b)的敏感产品选择模型,在HS(1992)4位数品目层次上,首先计算出中韩自由贸易区建立后中国将受冲击的敏感品目,然后对这些敏感品目在世界市场以及双边市场上的竞争力进行了动态分析。通过分析本文得出结论,中韩自由贸易区成立后,中国的零部件产业将成为中国汽车产业中最敏感的产业,而其中的座椅安全带、缓冲器及其零件、消声器及排气管、车身零附件、装有差速器的驱动桥和制动器及其零件又将成为最敏感的零部件产品。最后为尽可能地降低中国汽车产业的调整成本,本章还分别针对敏感品目和汽车产业整体提出了有效的应对策略,以供各级政府和产业部门参考和借鉴。第6章指出了中国在推进中韩自由贸易区实现过程中的战略选择。在上文实证研究的基础上,本章首先考察了目前阻碍中韩自由贸易区实现的因素,然后从中国的视角提出了推进中韩自由贸易区早日实现的战略构想,最后在对全文研究进行总结的基础上,明确了下一步研究的方向。尽管上文的实证研究表明,中韩自由贸易区的成立将为两国带来明显的经济利益,但是由于韩国对产业空洞化的担忧、农业方面的抵制以及其他方面阻碍因素的存在,使得中韩自由贸易区的实现将是一个曲折的过程。本文认为,在自贸区谈判之前,应该从完善两国间多层面的对话协调机制、推进贸易与投资便利化合作进程、确定出敏感产品并实施合理的过渡期安排等三个方面来推进中韩自由贸易区的早日实现,并且在实施过程中要注意遵循渐进性原则。本文的创新之处在于:第一,在对产品按技术含量进行重新归类的基础上全面分析了中韩贸易关系的互补性特征。对中韩两国贸易关系的已有研究大多是基于传统的产品分类方法进行,传统的产品分类方法无法真实地体现不同产品间技术含量和附加值水平的差异,从而在此基础上进行的结构分析并不能揭示出中韩两国真实的竞争互补关系。本文借鉴Lall(2000)的产品技术分类方法,在对SITC(Rev.2)3位数编码的177种制成品按技术含量进行重新归类的基础上,对中韩两国的贸易关系进行全面的技术结构分析,并深刻揭示了两国间竞争互补关系的变化与实质。第二,从FTA对双边贸易模式的影响和产业内贸易效应的视角探讨中韩自由贸易区建立的双赢效果。前人对中韩自由贸易区宏观经济效应的研究大多集中在对GDP、福利和贸易总量的影响方面,很少有针对双边贸易模式的影响方面的研究。由于贸易自由化后,产业内的调整成本要小于产业间的调整成本,因此,如果随着中韩自由贸易区的成立,产业内贸易的增长快于产业间贸易的增长,那么两国加入自由贸易区的调整成本就会呈迅速减少趋势,从而两国在自由贸易区中通过贸易模式的变化所获得的长期净收益将增加。第三,通过比较产业竞争力和确定敏感品目来研究中韩FTA对中国汽车产业的微观影响。由于现有的对中韩自由贸易区产业影响的定量研究主要是基于较粗产业分类进行的产业间影响分析,所以本文基于具体产业来定量研究中韩自由贸易区的产业内影响,具有某种创新性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Within the context of the recent slow progress in global multilateral trade negotiation, regional economic cooperation, mostly in the form of FTA, is blooming throughout the World. In recent years, the Governments of China and South Korea showed interest on bilateral Free Trade Area. During his visit to South Korea on April, 2007, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao suggested two sides should put forward win-win proposal for China-Korea FTA as quickly as possible. At the same time, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said South Korea would take a positive attitude and sincerity to deal with the study on CKFTA. However, trade liberalization is a double-edged sword all the way. FTA brings not only the welfare effects but also the impact to the relative inferior industries in the member countries. If CKFTA succeeds, the inferior industries in both countries will be impacted. As worrying about this kind of impact, the domestic related interest groups would object to CKFTA desperately.Therefore, in order to propose the counter-strategies for the concrete Industrial sector and reduce the industrial adjustment cost as far as possible, this paper analyzed the expected effects of CKFTA on the basis of the feasibility study. Problems needed to be solved in this paper include: 1) whether there is complementary in the trade between China and South Korea, and whether both sides can offer supports to the reciprocal market; 2) how about the expected macroeconomic effects of CKFTA; 3) how about the expected effects on inferior industries of CKFTA, and how we counter; 4) what strategy we should take to realize CKFTA.On the base of theoretical frame and realistic foundation, we have an empirical study on expected economic effects of China-Korea FTA .The paper includes six chapters:Chapter 1 is the introduction of this paper. It introduces research background and significance, the content of research, train of thoughts, and the possible innovations of this paper.Chapter 2 has outlined the research rationale of CKFTA in order to provide the theoretical frame for the following empirical study. It includes the literature review of Free Trade Arrangement, the analysis of economic effect of free trade area, and the literature review about China-South Korea Free Trade Area.Chapter 3 has analyzed the realistic foundation of CKFTA. Firstly, by analyzing the bilateral trade cooperation between China and South Korea, we can know that the trade relation is very intense, and they have become one of the most important trade partner with each other after 15 year super-velocity growth; Then take the manufacturing sector as the example, on the basis of classifying the industries according to the technique content, this paper has studied the trade competitiveness and complementary between China and South Korea from the bilateral trade and the international market angle separately. We draw the conclusions: the trade and industrial structure is different, hierarchical and complementary between China and Korea. Moreover, the three characters have further enhancement tendency. Therefore, both countries already have had the realistic foundation to set up the FTA. The CKFTA will bring the enormous benefit on the resources and the low technical manufacturing industry in China, and will bring the impact on China’s medium technological industry in the short-term. In addition, because both countries had already formed the vertical intra-industry (Ⅶ) division and intra-product division based on the value chain in the high-tech product domain, the setup of CKFTA will not bring the impact on our country’s high-tech industry, on the contrary, will promote further cooperation in the high-tech industry between China and Korea. With cooperation with Korea, we can enhance the technical level and the international competitiveness of the high-tech industry in our country.Chapter 4 analyzed the expected macroeconomic effects of China- South Korea Free Trade Area. Firstly, this chapter forecasted the effects on the expansion of regional trade of CKFTA by introducing dummy variable on behalf of free trade arrangement into gravity equation. We found that the free trade arrangements have significant role in promoting bilateral trade volume of China. Therefore, we can draw a conclusion that the establishment of the CKFTA will also promote the expansion of the volume of bilateral trade between China and South Korea. Secondly, we analyzed the expected effects on bilateral intra-industry trade of CKFTA. We had co-integration test and Granger causality test between average actual tariff and intra-industry trade index, and then we got a conclusion that the decrease of average actual tariff would lead to the increase of intra-industry trade index. Thus, we can predict that bilateral intra-industry trade will grow faster after the establishment of CKFTA with the reduction of trade barriers between China and South Korea, and the long-term dynamic net benefits of CKFTA will increase quickly. Finally, we quoted the result of KIEP using a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the welfare of the establishment of CKFTA. By analysis, we found that CKFTA will have a positive effect on GDP, welfare, the total trade volume and trade conditions of the two countries.Chapter 5 analyzed the expected effects on the China’s auto industry of CKFTA. Firstly, we inspected the status quo of the auto industry in the two countries by comparing the trade and investment relationship and tariff barriers. Secondly, we selected the sensitive items on the basis of HS (1992)4-digit level by using KIEP (2005)’s sensitive Product Selection model. Thirdly, in order to analyze the dynamic effect, we compare the sensitive items’ competitive power both in the world market and bilateral market respectively. By analyzing, we drew the conclusion that China’s auto parts industry is the most sensitive industry, and in the auto parts industry, seat belts, buffers and spare parts, muffler and exhaust pipe, body accessories, the differential with the drive axle and brake parts are the most sensitive products after the establishment of China-South Korea free trade Area. Finally, in order to reduce China’s automobile industry adjustment costs as possible, we also put forward to some counter-measures for sensitive items and the whole auto industry respectively.Chapter 6 is about strategic choices for China. On the basis of the previous empirical studies, this chapter found out some barriers confronted by China and South Korea, put forward to the strategic choices to promoting the China-South Korea FTA from the perspective of China, and sum up the conclusions of the full text of the study and make clear the next research objective. Despite our empirical studies show that the establishment of CKFTA will bring significant economic benefits, but some Koreans object to establish CKFTA because of worrying about the hollowing out of industry and agriculture impact, and the realization of CKFTA will be a tortuous process. Some measures should be taken to perfect the multi-level dialogue coordination mechanism, promote trade and investment facilitation of the process of cooperation, identify sensitive products, and implement reasonable transitional arrangements for sensitive products. In addition, we should follow the gradual principle in the process of implementation.There are three innovations in the paper. The first, complementary relation of trade between China and South Korea was analyzed comprehensively on the base of re-classifying products according to technological content. The second, from the perspective of FTA’s effects on the bilateral trade patterns and intra-industry trade, this paper proved the win-win effect from the establishment of Sino-South Korea Free Trade Area. The third, the paper analyzed the microeconomic effects on Chinese Auto industry by comparing the competitiveness of industries and identifying sensitive items.更多还原