【作者】 毛明来；

【导师】 陈通；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国社会经济和技术的发展,各类建设项目投资每年以两位数的速度递增,涉及面和影响范围越来越广。然而,伴随而来的是投资项目与社会和生态环境之间关系的危机,创建资源节约环境友好型社会已刻不容缓。为了从源头上发现和解决该矛盾,投资项目经济评价有必要采用新的思路—和谐理念对投资项目进行分析和评价。本文正是在我国构建和谐社会的大背景下,基于和谐理念对投资项目经济评价理论进行深入的探索性研究。本文采用西蒙的“有限理性”作为投资项目经济评价的理论前提,拉近理性选择的预设条件与现实生活的距离,更加符合投资决策的实际,为投资项目经济评价体系提供更加有力的理论支撑。传统的投资项目经济评价理论是本文开展研究的基础,首先对其各项经济指标的理论基础和计算平台─DCF模型的局限性进行分析,通过对现金流和折现率的来源问题进行研究,使各项评价指标易于掌握和应用,并引入实物期权克服DCF的理论缺陷,真实地反映项目投资的内在灵活性和不确定性,通过环境成本的内部化使投资者追求利润最大化的动机和环境保护的要求相一致。在风险与不确定分析中,研究了相关联风险因素的分析方法,并在传统分析方法的基础上,提出由主观因素带来的风险与不确定性分析方法,构建了风险与不确定性的全面分析体系。在预测主要风险因素及其风险程度后,针对不同风险因素提出相应的规避和防范对策,以期减少可能的损失。引入和谐度,构建投资项目和谐性研究指标体系,对投资项目进行和谐性分析,研究经济评价各项指标子系统的和谐程度,为投资项目的长期发展和长久的盈利能力奠定基础,并在无须重新获取新数据和信息的情况下,为和谐理念下多项目选优提供有力的支持。最后,在投资项目和谐性研究指标体系下,利用和谐理念下基于熵权的F-AHP进行多项目选优。F-AHP解决了投资项目经济评价的多属性及模糊性问题;采用熵权客观赋权,在一定程度上避免了主观随意性,使得排序更加科学;通过置信度α与乐观指数λ考虑了不确定性及决策者的风险态度;并可利用已获数据和信息对优选项目进行和谐性研究,为投资决策提供进一步的参考和依据。近年来,“和谐”己成为学术界所关注的重要课题,和谐理念被越来越多的企业所接受。然而迄今为止,还没有人基于和谐理念对投资项目经济评价进行系统研讨。本文正是基于此作出的一种尝试,希望能为项目投资决策提供新的思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy and technology, investment projects increase in the double-digit growth rate annually, which involve increasing range and scope. However, the relationship between investment projects and the social and ecological environment is in a crisis, building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society is in the most urgent situation. To find and solve the contradictions fundamentally, econimic evaluation of invest projects should adopt the concept of harmony to analyse and evaluate investment projects. In the background of building a harmonious society in China, the dissertation does research into economic evaluation theory of investment projects based on the concept of harmony.The dissertation introduces Simon’s "Bounded Rationality" as theory foundation in economic evaluation, which narrows the gap between the pre-conditions of the rational choice and real life, is more realistic in the investment decisions, provides more effective theory support for the economic evaluation system of investment projects.Traditional economic evaluation is the basis of this research. First, the dissertation studies the limitations of the DCF model which is the theory basis and calculation platform of various economic indicators. To make it easy to understand and use various evaluation indicators, the dissertation study on how to forecast cash flow and choose discount rate. Real option is introduced to overcome the theory flaw of DCF, which truly reflect the inherent flexibility and uncertainty of project investment. The internalization of environmental cost makes the pursuit of profit maximization motives and the environmental requirements in line.The analytical method of the associated risk factors is studied in the analysis of risks and uncertainties. Based on the traditional analytical method, the analytical method of risks and uncertainties analysis raised by the subjective factors is proposed, and the all-around analysis system of risks and uncertainties is established. After the main risk factors and their degree are forecast, the corresponding measures that avoid and prevent risk factors are proposed to reduce possible losses.To analyse harmony of investment projects and research harmonious degree of various economic evaluation indicator subsystem, harmonious degree is introduced, and indicator system is established, which lay a foundation for long-term development and lasting profitability of investment projects. The method provides a powerful support for multi-project optimization under the concept of harmony without acquisiton of new data and information.Finally, F-AHP based on entropy weight is introduced to multi-project optimization under the indicator system of investment projects harmony. F-AHP solves the multi-attribute and fuzzy problem. Entropy weight ranking is more effective. Usingα-cut and index of optimismλestimate the uncertainty and preference of decision makers. The acquired data and information is used to study harmony of selected project, which provides further reference for investment decisions.In recent years, "Harmony" has become the major topic which is concerned by academe, and the concept of harmony has also been accepted by more and more enterprises. So far, however, no one dissertate economic evaluation of investment projects systematically based on the concept of harmony. Based on the above, the dissertation makes an attempt, and hopes to be able to provide new idea and method for investment decisions.更多还原