【作者】 张磊；

【导师】 郑丕谔；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 能源是国家的重要资源,是国家经济发展的重要保障,能源安全是国家经济安全的重要组成部分,能源安全尤其是石油安全是保障国家安全的基石。论文主要通过对中国石油的资源状况、生产状况、需求状况和中国石油安全所面临的挑战与机遇以及对世界的石油资源分布状况、运输格局等方面的分析,指出在石油大量需求的背景下,随着经济的发展,石油资源、石油储备及生产的相对不足、石油进口量逐步攀升、对外依存度逐渐上升的矛盾和风险会愈加突出。论文对美国石油的供需状况、石油工业与国家安全、石油战略储备的状况进行了分析,同时对日本、俄罗斯、德国、法国及韩国的石油安全状况进行了详尽的论述,力图通过对先进国家成熟经验的介绍和对比分析,对中国石油安全管理及政策的制定起到有益的借鉴作用。石油需求状况是石油安全中最重要的影响因素,因此对石油未来的需求预测是非常重要的。组合预测方法可以有效地提取分散在各个单一预测模型中的信息,从而大大提高预测的精度和准确性;因此在综合运用混沌时间序列法、自适应滤波预测法、灰色预测法的基础上,应用层次分析法确定相应的权重,构建了组合预测系统理论基础上的石油需求预测模型,并对中国未来的石油需求量进行了预测,可以对中国石油安全起到有益的预警作用。中国经济已经成为世界经济的重要组成部分,加之中国石油对外依存度的逐年增加,国际石油价格对中国经济和石油安全的影响越来越大。论文在结合敏感性分析方法的基础上,分析了石油价格的波动对中国石油安全及经济的影响,并在此基础上提出利用价格的波动的有利时机增加石油进口的策略;同时对基于价格的波动上的石油储备规模进行了分析与评价。能源安全预警是对能源系统未来的变化趋势进行预期性评价,提前发现未来可能出现的问题,为采取防范措施提供依据。论文建立了石油安全体系的分析与预警评价模型,并应用支持向量机的原理进行了详细分析与评价。SWOT系统分析方法是用来分析内部和外部环境的常用工具,其目标在于确定组织的优势和劣势,以及周围环境存在的发展机会和威胁。对于中国石油未来的选择,论文运用SWOT系统分析原理对中国石油的内外部环境进行了详细分析与评价,指出中国石油未来的战略选择。最后,论文提出了加强石油战略储备体系建设、加快开征燃油税、加强石油勘探开发、合理利用石油期货市场、加速能源结构调整、加强资本运作策略、实施石油替代方案等方面提出加强中国石油安全的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is an important resource and indemnity in a country. Energy security is an important part of economic security, especially petroleum security is a foundation stone of a country security.In this dissertation Chinese petroleum resource condition, production condition, demand condition, challenge and opportunity of Chinese petroleum security, the world resource distribution condition, petroleum transport pattern and so on are mainly analyzed. Along with the economical development under the background of rapidly increasing demand for petroleum, the contradiction and risk of oil resource, petroleum reserve and production relative insufficiency, petroleum import volume climbing up and outward degree of gradually rising demand for petroleum are all tackled in this dissertation.The petroleum supply and demand condition, oil industry and national security and petroleum strategic reserve condition in America, and the petroleum security condition of Japan, Russia, Germany, France and South Korea are all analyzed in detail in the dissertation. Taking into consideration the experiences gained in advanced countries, petroleum security management and policy making in China are analyzed.The condition and situation of petroleum supply and demand are the most important influential factor in petroleum security. Therefore, it is very important to predict a demand for petroleum in the future. Combination prediction theory can draw effective information from single prediction model, so the precision and accuracy of prediction result is improved greatly. On the basis of Chaotic Time Series Method, Self-Adaptive Filtering and Grey Prediction method, the weights in the related methods are determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a prediction model for the petroleum demand is set up on combination prediction theory. The amount of petroleum demand in the future is predicted and the result can be a valuable reference for China to make realistic decision and policies in petroleum security.Chinese economy has become an important part of world economy. The outward degree of Chinese petroleum is increasing sharply every year, and the price of world petroleum is getting more and more influence on Chinese economy and petroleum security. A sensitivity of Chinese petroleum security to fluctuation in the international petroleum price is also analyzed in detail, with a strategy of increase in import petroleum proposed. At the same time petroleum reserve scale is analyzed and estimated on the basis of petroleum price fluctuation.Energy security alarming is a predictive appraisal of a changing tendency of energy system in the future, and problems of the energy system can be early found in order to take measures. A model to analyze and appraise the petroleum security system has been established in this dissertation, and evaluation of the system is carried out based on the principle of support vector machine.The method, SWOT is often used to analyze the internal and external environment in decision making. The target is to determine strength and weakness of an organization and opportunity and threat of surroundings. SWOT system analysis is applied to analysis in the internal and external environment of Chinese petroleum, and the strategic choice of Chinese petroleum in the future is proposed.In the end, the measure and the suggestion on Chinese petroleum security, such as petroleum strategic reserve system construction, fuel taxation, petroleum exploration and exploitation, petroleum futures market, energy structure adjustment, capital operation strategy, petroleum alterative plan and so on, are proposed in this dissertation.更多还原