【作者】 张国英；

【导师】 郑丕谔；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 本文从寻求能源、环境和经济协调发展的方式着手,对能源发展的基本理论与决策方法体系进行了研究。对山西省的能源协调发展问题进行了战略分析,对分析得到的方案进行了投资比例分配,同时还对各种方案的具体实施进行了设想和规划。通过分析研究,建立了整合性的能源、环境和经济协调发展体系,来指导山西省的能源尤其是煤炭资源的有效开发利用。本文的创新点主要有:一是在能源、环境和经济协调发展投资决策过程中,在能源、环境和经济协调发展战略分析方案的基础上,针对协调发展下的能源战略方案投资的风险性等特点,引用了马科维茨(Markowitz)的投资组合理论对区域性的经济、能源和环境协调发展问题,进一步从定量的角度进行投资决策分析,确定投资收益和投资风险的结构性协调比例,实现区域性的经济、能源和环境协调发展。在分析过程中,引入了随机变量描述能源发展战略态势,以动态的方法对各战略方案进行了投资比例分配;二是在协调发展的基础上研究能源问题,将区域能源有效开发利用所涉及的各种要素集成在一起,体现了能源发展的大系统观念。尤其是把环境诸因素作为系统的主体研究,真正贯彻了能源发展与经济发展、环境保护协调同步的理念;三是在进行煤炭需求量预测时,应用了多元线性回归法,并结合使用了主要耗煤部门测算法。线性回归法通过对以前较长一段时期能源需求规律的分析,来预测未来时期的能源需求;在用主要耗煤部门法进行预测时,考虑了地方政策、技术进步等因素对能源需求的影响,以确保预测的精确度;四是鉴于现有大多数研究没有考虑不同地区、不同阶段和不同层次的需要,还没有形成系统可行的、具有普遍指导意义的分析方法及评价体系,特别是缺乏应用3E分析方法进行区划研究的成果,本文以整体性和系统性原理为指导,综合应用了内部和外部因素评价矩阵(IFE矩阵和EFE矩阵)、内部—外部矩阵(IE矩阵),构建了SWOT分析模式,将外部环境中的机会、威胁及內部环境的优势与弱势以层次分析法(AHP)予以量化,以利求取评估准则权重,并将所有策略進行策略矩阵的量化处理,最后,以QSPM法综合评分以得到各种策略的优先顺序,决定各种策略的相对优劣,用这种方法对山西省能源行业进行了战略分析,然后,用投资组合模型对所选择的四个战略方案进行了优化投资组合。本文还针对山西省具体情况,对四个战略方案的具体实施进行了构想和规划,重点探讨了基于循环经济的山西省煤炭生态工业实现的模式、范畴、机理与方法,并根据煤炭资源的特点,提出了煤炭产业集群的观念,研究出了山西省煤炭产业集群的发展模式。这样,通过定性分析与定量分析相结合,构建了能够较强地适应区域具体情况并与环境和经济相协调发展的能源发展框架,避免了单纯依靠计量经济学模型的局限性——如对经济发展速度、经济体系变化等具体情况进行描述的难度。本文综合运用了区域经济、投资学、系统论、循环经济、煤化工以及环境工程等理论,广泛搜集国内外有关能源发展的资料和实例,同时对国内尤其是山西省的煤炭行业现有的经营活动、开发政策及发展趋势作了大量调查研究,力求理论研究与实证研究相结合,定性分析与定量分析相结合,注重研究结果的实战性及可操作性,探索出了一套以煤炭为主的区域能源协调发展的理论与方法体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Setting about to realize harmonious development of energy,enviornment and economy,the basic theory and decision-making method system of energy resources development in Shanxi province is discussed in the dissertation.The harmonious development stratigy analysis of energy development is carried on emphatically. The investment portfolio is carried on to the strategic palns which are obtained from above mentioned analysis, and concrete implementation of each plan is conceived simultaneously. Through analysis, the coordinated energy, environment and economy system is established.With the system, the energy resources, especially coal resource of Shanxi province will be exploited and utilized effectively.The main contributions in this dissertation are as follows:(1)In view of the risk characteristic of energy project investment,portfolio theory is used for reference and random variable strategic situation is introduced in the process of investment decision-making,so investment proportion of every strategic plan is determined by this way;(2)Studing the energy problems on the basis of harmonious development, integrating every key element which has relation with efficient exploitation and utilization of energy, especially taking environment factor as the main body of the system, the idea of harmonious development of energy,environment protection and economy is carried out through all the dissertation;(3)Applying two forecast methods——multivariate linear regression analysis and rough guess of main coal consumption departments, combining quantitative and qualitative analyses, the coal demand of Shanxi province during the eleventh five year plan period is calculated.When forecasted by way of rough guess, the influences of policy and technical changes are taken into consider to ensure the forecaste precision;(4)At present, the difference of district,developing periods and developing levels are not taken into account in most of similar research,no organizational,feasible and general analysis methods and appraise system are formed, and the district research achievement is insufficient especially. Guided by integrated and systematic principle, applying comprehensive quantitative analysis methods such as IFE matrix, EFE matrix, IE matrix, AHP and QSPM matrix,constructing SWOT analysis model, a basic frame of harmonious development system of energy,environment and economy which is more suitable is built up in this dissertation. A set of theory including pattern, category, mechanism and method which is contributed to the realization of coal ecology industry is discussed and the concept, mechanism and method of coal industry cluster according to coal resource’s character is put forward.The limitation such as the difficult of describing the pace of economic growth and the change of economic system of econometrics model is avoided.Using theories such as industrial economy, regional economy, portfolio, ecology economy, circulation economy, coal chemical as well as environmental engineering, collecting domestic and foreign related energy development examples widely, making massive investigation to existing management, development policy and trend of coal industry of Shanxi province, unifying qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, taking attention to the feasibility, a set of coal primarily regional energy sustainable development theory is explored.更多还原