【作者】 孙大鹏；

【导师】 汪波；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的迅速发展和人民生活水平的逐步提高,城镇居民对于房地产的消费需求与投资需求不断增加,房地产业近年来呈现出迅猛发展的势头,相关产业在其拉动下迅速发展,房地产已经成为国民经济的重要支柱。现阶段,在房地产业繁荣的现象背后,也存在着诸多矛盾,既有结构性矛盾,也有体制性矛盾和供需失衡的矛盾,这些矛盾给房地产企业的市场营销带来诸多风险,随着房地产营销活动的不断拓展,人们对于房地产风险的认识也越来越全面与深刻。如何提高营销的效率,防范与控制房地产营销风险,是业界专家与学者重点研究的课题。在系统研究房地产营销风险相关理论成果的基础上,深入剖析房地产营销风险产生的原因、表现的特征与风险损失发生的规律,利用定量与定性相结合的方法,本文对房地产营销风险因素的识别、分析、评估以及防范与控制对策进行了全面的研究。特别是对于房地产营销风险的评估,本文应用BP神经网络的优化算法——混沌BP混合算法,建立模型,给出训练样本,结合实例做了房地产营销风险事件发生概率的计算,这是对营销风险定量评估的一个有益尝试;应用AHP与模糊综合评价相结合的方法,给出具体例子,对房地产营销风险损失的综合评估进行了研究。本文通过对房地产营销的模式和虚拟组织理论的研究,提出房地产虚拟营销的思路,虚拟营销既是宏观经济环境变化的要求,也是房地产营销的内在需求。通过房地产虚拟营销,可以使房地产动态联盟主动适应外部环境的变化、迅速捕捉市场机遇、实现敏捷制造、实现盟员企业间的优势互补、资源共享、共同分担营销风险和成本。而共同分担营销风险和成本,是房地产虚拟营销产生的最基本内在动因。基于房地产营销宏观与微观环境的快速多变的特点和动态联盟的不稳定性,本文提出房地产营销风险的动态防范与控制机制,动态防范与控制机制强调对风险的实时监控与针对风险因素变化的快速响应,在最短的时间内对风险因素变化产生的后果作出判断,决定是否采取风险控制措施,这是对传统风险控制理论的拓展和补充。在前述理论研究和建立模型的基础上,经过大量深入细致的工作,通过在CJH房地产开发有限公司及其盟员企业收集营销风险资料和数据,进行了实证研究。对其实施动态营销风险防范和控制机制的效果做了细致分析,最后给出了改进和优化措施,以期对房地产企业的可持续发展有所裨益。更多还原

【Abstract】 With rapid development of national economy and step up of People’s standard of living, the real estate demands of consumption and investment is escalating in recent years, other industries interrelated have been made rapid progress promoted by real estate, now, real estate has become the mainstay in national economy. But, behind the flourishing phenomena of real estate, there are many conflicts, including structural contradictions, conflicts in system and conflicts of supply-demand unbalance. These conflicts bring many marketing risks to real estate enterprises. Along with lucubrating of real estate marketing, People’s know- ledges in real estate marketing risks become more and more comprehensive. It is a significant subject for experts and scholars to study how to improve marketing efficiency, to prevent and control marketing risks. On the basis of research on related theories of real estate marketing risks, this paper analyzes the occurring reasons, characteristics and the orderliness of loss of real estate marketing risks, through the methods of combined qualitative and quantitative research , this thesis has studied on identify, analysis, evaluation and prevention and control countermeasures of real estate marketing risks. The author chooses chaos BP mixed algorithm as the method for evaluation of real estate marketing risks, and establishes a BP neural networks model, gives the training data, then use the model makes a probability calculating of real estate risks, this is a useful attempt in quantitative evaluation of marketing risks. The general evaluation of loss of real estate marketing risks is described through the application of AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.The author has studied on real estate marketing mode and virtual organization theory, then gives a concept of virtual marketing of real estate. Facing to acuting change of macro economic environment, it needs virtual marketing for real estate enterprises. Through virtual marketing, the dynamic alliance is able to adapt to the change of outside environment, to catch the market opportunity rapidly, to realize agile manufacture, to realize inclusiveness, and share of risks and costs. Sharing risks and costs is the basically inner reason for virtual marketing.On the basis of acute change of marketing environment and the instability of dynamic alliance, this paper gives out the dynamic prevention and control mechanism of real estate marketing risks. It emphasizes that the risks should be real time charged and be responded timely, to give a judge for changed risk factors immediately, and to decide if it needs to take a measure to deal with it. This is a complementarity and extending for traditional theory of risks prevention and control.At last, on the basis of theories summarization and model establishment, the author collects a great deal of marketing risk data through hard works in CJH real estate development company and other enterprises in the dynamic alliance, then makes an experimental study. This paper analyzes the implementation effect of dynamic prevention and control mechanism for real estate marketing risks ,and gives some improvement and optimization countermeasures for dynamic prevention and control mechanism. It maybe helpful for sustainable development to real estate enterprises.更多还原