【作者】 司春棣；

【导师】 练继建；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 引水工程是为了满足工业、生活以及生态等日益增长的水需求量而修建的,引水工程的保质保量安全输水保证了国民经济的健康发展、社会的高速前进和人民生活水平的提高。现有的安全工作多是针对单个关键输水建筑物或输水设施进行的,而以保障引水工程整体输水安全为目标的工作开展的还不够。同时,在安全管理中没有将日常运行管理评价提升到引水工程安全运行层面,缺乏引水工程的定性与定量综合监控评价。针对现有引水工程安全管理中存在的不足,本文以引滦入津引水工程为背景,就如何建立引水工程安全保障体系问题,在以下几方面进行了研究。(1)首次提出了完整的引水工程安全保障体系概念,它包括引水工程安全评价系统和引水工程应急系统两个层次,其中,引水工程安全评价又分为引水建筑物安全性态综合评价以及输水运行和水质安全综合评价。(2)在引水建筑物安全评价指标体系构建的七项原则基础上,将定量的仪器监测信息与定性的巡视检查信息相结合,建立了水库大坝、水闸、泵站、河道、明渠、隧洞、暗渠、倒虹吸等各类引水建筑物的安全评价指标体系。(3)提出了确定指标权重的新方法:应用层次分析法求取由专家给定的指标主观权重;借鉴传递熵的思想,建立可评价专家给定信息质量和给出专家自身权重的熵模型;最终给出了指标的加权融合权重。(4)提出了对指标进行直线型隶属度函数无量纲化处理和用统计学理论处理小概率事件方法的置信区间法两种定量评价指标量化方法,并引入模糊多维标度法解决了定性评价指标量化问题。(5)为满足置信区间法的工作需求,将遗传算法用于支持向量机核函数参数和惩罚因子的参数寻优,充分利用支持向量机基于结构风险最小化原则的特点,建立了遗传支持向量机土石坝安全监测预报模型。(6)基于多级模糊综合评价原理,给出了引水建筑物安全性态模糊综合评价以及输水运行和水质安全模糊综合评价的计算方法和流程。(7)开发了引滦入津工程输水安全与应急系统软件,为引水工程安全保障体系由理论走向实用提供了技术支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water diversion project is established to satisfy the increasing water requirement of industry, living and ecology and so on, and the safe operation of it ensures the healthy development of national economy, the high-speed advance of society and the increase of people’s life standard. Most of the nowadays existing safety researches aim at the single key water conveyance structure, the analysis of safety evaluation regarding the water diversion project as an integral structure is not enough. At the same time, the daily operation and management evaluation of water diversion project isn’t combined with its safety evaluation, but only used for performance assessment, it lacks qualitative and quantitative comprehensive evaluation. For resolving the mentioned problems in the water diversion project safety management, on the background of water diversion project from Luanhe river to Tianjin City, the major achievements on the problems that how to establish water diversion project safety control system are as follows:(1) A whole conception of water diversion project safety control system is put forward firstly, which includes two aspects: The water diversion project safety evaluation system and the water diversion project emergency system. The water diversion project safety evaluation system is divided into water diversion structure safety comprehensive evaluation and water diversion operation and water quality safety comprehensive evaluation.(2) Basing on the seven principles in founding the water diversion structure safety evaluation index system, and integrating quantitative apparatus monitoring information and qualitative patrol inspecting information, the water diversion structure safety evaluation index system is established in which the structures include reservoirs、sluices、pumping stations、riverway、open channels、tunnels、underdrain、inverted siphons and so on.(3) A new method of calculating index weight is put forward: first we get the index subjective weight given by specialists through analytic hierarchy process; then referring to entropy theory, an entropy model which can evaluate the quality of information given by evaluation specialists and can present specialists weight is established; at last the index weighted fusion weight is present.(4) Two quantization method of quantitative evaluation index are put forward: one is to nondimensionalize index by linear membership grade function, the other is the fiducial interval method based on the statistics theory of dealing with little probability incident, and fuzzy multidimensional scale method is also induced to resolve qualitative index quantization problem.(5) In order to satisfy the need of fiducial interval method, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the kernel function parameter and penalty factor of support vector machine, through making the best use of the support vector machine characteristic of structure risk minimization principle, the genetic support vector machine safety monitoring model of earth-rock dam is established.(6) Basing on multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory, the calculation method and process of water diversion structure safety fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and water diversion operation and water quality safety fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are present.(7) A water diversion safety and emergency system software is exploited for the water diversion project from Luanhe river to Tianjin City, which supply a technique sustain of making the water diversion safety control system become more practical.更多还原