【作者】 张源雪；

【导师】 钟登华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 近年来,消防问题已日益成为国内外的研究课题。随着一些新兴的包含重大危险源的工业物流园区的不断兴建,一些规模较大破坏性较强的火灾不断出现,使得这种重大危险源区域的消防工作面临的问题也越来越多,因此重大危险源区域消防规划逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。本文从区域消防整体规划的角度,并结合包含多个重大危险源的天津市散货物流区的实例出发,基于多目标模糊优化理论,对重大危险源区域消防规划,包括区域的风险评估、消防站布局规划以及消防给水系统的优化进行了系统的分析与研究,并建立了相应的消防规划模型。论文首先应用系统安全工程理论以及相关的数学方法,对重大危险源区域火灾风险评估进行了以下的研究:1、建立进行区域火灾风险评估的基本理论。分析了风险评估的内容及其本质。对区域火灾灾害系统及减灾管理进行了分析,给出了区域火灾的特征与风险评估的基本理论框架。2、给出了建立火灾风险评估指标体系的原则。构造了模糊层级分析法并以此来处理重大危险源区域火灾风险各指标的权重;对于区域火灾风险评估指标给出了相应的量化方法,并利用模糊理论对火灾风险进行了等级划分。3、利用模糊理论,开发了基于模糊均值的多指标综合评估合成技术,为研究重大危险源区域火灾风险提供了新的更加合适的方法。消防站布局是决定消防系统能力发挥的重要因素,他包括消防站的选址、责任区划分以及消防站设施的配备等几个方面工作。目前已有法律法规给出了相应的标准,但是此类标准具有一定的局限性,有待进一步优化。本文对消防站布局的优化主要采用了多目标模糊规划及其遗传算法,并适当的把多目标问题转换为单一的最大最小值目标问题,这样就较容易采用遗传算法进行求解。对比现有的消防站布局模型,本文的研究具有三个明显的特点:1、规划过程中考虑了模糊属性,2、充分考虑了不同风险级别对消防设施配备要求的不同,3、还考虑了消防服务出现拥挤的情况。最后的算例分析阐述了消防站布局优化模型应用的可行性和有效性。论文还基于相应的标准和数学模型对消防给水系统进行了规划研究。模型首先将重大危险源区域根据所发挥的功能作用划分为若干个功能区块,根据每个功能区块可能发生的火灾数及其可能出现的火灾情景建立所需要一次灭火用水量三角模糊函数,在根据系统优化理论,结合其外部天然可用水源的补充作用,并考虑调度的调控作用,建立了消防给水系统优化模型。文章最后用上面建立的规划模型,对天津散货物流区域的消防系统进行了规划研究,结果表明:基于多目标模糊的消防规划模型可靠的、系统的、有效的优化了整个区域的消防系统,降低了整个区域火灾风险系数。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increase of construction and expansion of industrial logistics centers and manufacturing zones, the disastrous hazard sources, the number of large-scale destructive fire accidents is on the rise. This presents a great challenge for the fire protection of these hazard source’s zones and therefore great attention is increasingly paid to fire protection programming in fire research field. This dissertation conducts a case study on fire protection programming for Tianjin Logistics and Manufacturing Zones, attempting to make a systematic research on the zone risk assessment, the fire station layout planning and optimization of water supply system for fire protection. Based on multi-objective fuzzy optimization, a fire programming system for significant danger zones is worked out and a fire programming model is built.In the first place, the researches were conducted on fire risk assessment of disastrous danger zones, using the theory of system safety engineering and multi-objective fuzzy mathematical method. They are as follows: (i) The basic theory for zone fire risk evaluation was established; the nature and content of fire risk assessment were analyzed and its hypostasis was given. The features of zone fire risk and its analyzing frame were also demonstrated. (ii) The indexes of the establishment of hazard zone fire risk assessment were provided. According to the fire data, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was developed and it was used in dealing with the weight of zone fire risk indexes. For the analysis of the qualitative indexes, quantifying method and classification of zone fire risk were provided. (iii) Through integrating with fuzzy theory, a new synthetic evaluating technique with fuzzy mean value method was brought forward, which provided a new and appropriate means for studying on disastrous hazard zone fire risk evaluation.Secondly, fire station layout planning plays an important role in fire protection system and it comprises such work as fixing the location of fire stations, dividing the areas of responsibility and allocating the fire fighting devices. Although its related technical standards and regulations have been issued, they are limited in terms of applicable scientific theory, and thus need further optimizing. In this paper, the optimal planning of fire station facilities was made by the method of combination of a multi-objective fuzzy programming and a genetic algorithm. The original fuzzy multiple objectives were appropriately converted to a single unified“min-max”goal, which made it easy to apply a genetic algorithm to solving the problem. Compared with the existing methods of fire station location, this approach has three distinguished features: (i) Fuzzy nature of a decision maker was considered in the location optimization model. (ii) The demands for the facilities from the areas with various fire risk categories were taken into account. (iii) Fire service congested situation was also under consideration. Finally, the case study was used to illustrate the application of the method for the optimization of fire station locations.In addition, on the basis of reference standards and mathematical models, water supply system for fire protection was studied. Accordingly, the disastrous hazard zones were divided into many different functional units according to their functions; water requirements triangle fuzzy number of fire extinction was calculated on considering probable fires and fire scales. Using system optimization theory,considering complement of Nature’s water sources and adjusting effect of optimal operation, the model of water supply system was finally built.In the end, based on the above optimizing model, the paper investigated the programming problem of Tianjin Logistics and Manufacturing zone. The result shows that the multi-objective fuzzy fire programming model is reliable,systemic and effective in optimizing the fire system, and reduces the risk coefficient of zone fire.更多还原