【作者】 刘立秋；

【导师】 赵黎明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 旅游投资项目技术经济分析,是现代经济发展的需要,是理论和实践中亟待解决的课题。旅游投资项目具有与一般投资项目不同的特点,项目发展具有极大的不确定性,这使得旅游项目投资决策理论和方法与传统项目评价理论与方法有很大的不同。本文就旅游项目评价和投资决策问题,进行了全面系统的研究,提出了全新的理论分析框架和具体方法,对旅游项目投资和管理具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。旅游业作为国民经济的重要产业,其作用表现在向前诱发效应和向后波动效应。论文首先运用投入产出法,探讨旅游业对国民经济其他部门的支持作用和对其他产业的依赖程度,计算影响力系数、感应度系数和关联度系数,量化分析了旅游业在产业集群中的关联效应和优势地位。论文建立了旅游投资项目技术经济分析的系统分析框架和理论方法。旅游投资项目与一般投资项目相比有很大的不确定性,这其中包括政府、社会、经济、旅游者、成本投入及收入的不确定性,管理和经营策略、竞争者的影响等,具有很大的投资机会价值。因此,针对旅游投资特点和旅游投资项目发展,论文分析了旅游项目投资决策中的矛盾和问题,提出旅游投资模式设计,指出未来旅游投资的方向和重点;在研究资本结构理论基础上,建立旅游项目融资框架结构,进行融资效率评价,指出发展旅游产业投资基金融资模式,对其运做进行评价分析。旅游投资项目效益和费用是旅游项目技术经济分析的基础。论文系统研究了旅游投资项目收入模式,在对经济效益评价方法综述分析基础上,构建评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,对我国旅游上市企业效益进行实证分析,探索旅游投资企业资本重组、增加企业价值的能力和对策;同时针对旅游项目引发的环境问题,分析环境价格策略,构建旅游项目生态补偿税机制,研究环境税费问题。论文的重点是旅游项目投资决策分析。由于旅游投资项目的不确定性、不可逆性和竞争性,论文分析了传统决策方法的缺陷和不足,将实物期权、期权博弈理论及模型引入旅游投资项目评价中,建立旅游项目期权博弈定价模型,对具有可转换期权特征的旅游项目,研究了最优投资转换阀值关于固定成本和波动性的关系。最后,研究了旅游危机管理,将安全观、安全科学、和谐旅游安全文化理念植入旅游危机管理中;创造性地将旅游项目危机管理分为旅游目的地和旅游企业危机管理;提出危机管理策略,构建了旅游项目危机管理机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 The tech-economic analysis of tourism investment project is the need of modern economic development and the problem to be solved urgently. Comparing with general investment project, tourism one has greatly different characteristic in that the latter usually has much more uncertainty than the former, which makes decision theories and evaluation methods on tourism investment project different with conventional one. In this paper, the appraisal on tourism project and the problem of investment decision were systemically studied. A newly analytical framework on theory and specific methods were proposed.Tourism is one of an important industry in national economy. The functions of tourism are represented as induction effect forward and fluctuation effect backward. In this paper, first, input output method was applied to interpret tourism’s supporting effect on other departments of national economy and tourism’s dependency degree on other industry. Secondly, degree of influence, inductance and association coefficients were accounted. Thirdly, association effect and dominant position of tourism among industrial clusters were quantitatively analyzed.In this article, systematic framework and theoretical method of tech-economic analysis on tourism investment project were proposed. Compared with general investment project, tourism one has great uncertainty, which includes influencing factors of government, society, economy, tourist, cost input and output, as well as the impact of management strategy and competitor, etc. Therefore tourism investment project has great investment opportunity value. So in this paper, some conflicts and problems on tourism investment project were analyzed for project’s characteristics and its development. Several design patterns on tourism investment were proposed and tourism investment’s future direction and emphasis were pointed out. Based on the research of capital structure theory, tourism project’s financing structure and the evaluation of project’s efficiency were first established and then appraised. The mode of development on tourism investment fund’s financing and its operation were analyzed at last. Cost-benefit analysis for tourism investment project is the foundation of its tech-economic analysis. In this paper, income pattern of tourism investment project was systematically discussed. Based on the survey of different methods on the appraisal of economic profit, tourism investment project’s index system was built up. The profit of listed tourism corporations in China was empirically analyzed using factor analysis method. Tourism investment enterprises’capital recomposition and value growth were discussed in this article. Additionally, some related problems according to environmental problem aroused by tourism project, pricing strategy on environment were discussed in order to constitute compensation tax for ecological construction and tax & fee of environment.The important part on the paper is the analysis of investment decision on tourism project. First, because of the uncertainty, irreversibility and competitiveness of tourism investment project, not only the disadvantage of traditional decision-making methods were analyzed, but also real option and option game theories were introduced into the appraisal on tourism investment project. Secondly, the pricing model of option game theory on tourism projects was established. Thirdly, optimal investment of conversion value on the relationship between organizational fixed costs and its volatility was studied on tourism project which have the characteristic of convertible option. Finally, the conceptions of security, safety science and cultural ideas were introduced into the study on tourism crisis management. An innovative classification of tourism destination management and tourism enterprises’crisis management on tourism crisis management was introduced. At last, the crisis management strategies and tourism project’s crisis management mechanism were proposed and discussed.更多还原