【作者】 裴宏斌；

【导师】 李从东；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 石油化工行业是国民经济的重要基础产业,肩负着保障国家石油安全的重大责任。同时,石油化工行业又是一个探索性很强的高风险行业,油气产品具有易燃易爆的特点,生产过程中存在较多的不确定因素。其中,炼化企业因其原料和产品等介质、工艺条件、流程和装置等的特殊性、以及人员操作的复杂性等,潜藏着极大的危险,如果失控,将造成财产损失、人员伤亡、环境破坏以及恶劣的社会效应和国际影响。因此,安全管理工作不是一个可有可无的环节,更不是一个阶段性的工作,而是一个常抓不懈、警钟常鸣的工作。安全是炼化企业永恒的主题,是企业生存发展的基础,是企业经济效益得以保证的前提。如何确保炼化企业的安全生产,营造良好的安全环境,对于保障人民群众生命财产安全,保持社会稳定及促进社会经济的顺利发展具有极为重要的意义。本文以锦州石化公司的安全管理现状为分析背景,研究炼化企业生产过程的典型特征及其可能存在的隐患,通过对影响炼化企业安全的各种因素进行分析,提出基于安全阈限分析的炼化企业安全管理策略。在充分考虑各个安全因素之间的相互关联关系的情况下,提出安全管理策略,针对不同因子采取不同的安全控制机制或管理方式,各种方式之间以因素间相互关系加以链接,形成较为完善的体系框架。立意于炼化企业的安全管理,本文开展了以下创新性研究:1、从对炼化企业事故归因分析出发,对影响炼化企业安全的各个安全因子进行分类、辨识研究,建立安全知识学习模型;2、通过对各安全因子的分类研究,利用多种数理统计手段,建立影响炼化企业安全的各安全因素的分解与交互模型;3、从对炼化企业生产状态的安全评价入手,根据炼化企业安全生产等级要求,结合单个安全因子的阈限值,确定组合状态下安全因子的阈值范围;4、在炼化企业安全因子阈限分析的基础上,建立安全因子对企业安全的动态影响度模型;5、在上述研究结果的基础上,提出基于炼化企业安全阈限分析的安全管理策略体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Petrochemical industry is an important base in national economy. It is responsible for safeguarding national oil greatly. At the same time, petrochemical industry is also a high exploring and risky industry for the combustible and explosive nature of petrochemicals and many uncertain factors in the producing process. Thereinto, huge dangers are hiding in petrol-refining enterprises because of the particularity of mediums, such as materials and products, arts and crafts conditions, producing processes and equipments, as well as the complexity of personal operations. If the situation is out of control, it will result in many serious conceal, such as property loss, personal casualty, environment breach and abominable social and international effect. Therefore, safety management is not a dispensable part and not a moment work yet, it is a persistent work and need to alert constantly. Safety is an eternal theme for petrol-refining enterprise, which can survive and develop on the base of it. It is also a precondition for the enterprise to ensure the economy benefit How to ensure the safety in production and environment is a matter of great significance for guaranteeing people’s lives and properties, keeping social stability and facilitating development of social economy.This dissertation analyzed the representative characters and possible hidden troubles in the producing process on the background of the safety management actuality of Jin Zhou petrochemical company. By analyzing all kinds of factors that influence petrol-refining enterprise’s safety, the safety management strategy was put forward on the base of safety threshold analysis. Under the situation of considering relationship during each safety factor, safety threshold analysis was advanced to adopt different safety controlling system or management measure for different factors. Each measure was linked together by the relationship between each factor, which formed to a integrated system frame.Established in the safety management of petrol-refining enterprise, some innovational research had been developed as follows.1. Start from analyzing accident-causing in petrol-refining enterprise, all kinds of factors that influence petrol-refining enterprise’s safety were classified and distinguished. A learning model for safety knowledge was built;2. By researching the sort of safety factors and making use of mathematics and statistic multi-means, the decompose model and alternant model were built for the factors that influence petrol-refining enterprise’s safety;3. Proceeded with the safety estimate for the petrol-refining enterprise’s producing situation, according to the request of producing safety rank and each factor’s single threshold, safety factors’combined threshold range were formed.4. On the base of safety factors’threshold analysis, the dynamic effect model for enterprise’s safety was set up.5. Based on the above research results, the safety management strategy system was brought forward.更多还原