【作者】 刘晓峰；

【导师】 齐二石； 王雪青；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工业工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 随着区域经济发展、工业化进程的加快以及城市化进程的推进,环境保护、资源利用、人地关系等问题日渐突出,区域规划逐渐演变为协调区域发展、解决发展瓶颈的重要手段。在这一过程中,传统的区域规划已越来越不能适应区域快速发展的需要,区域规划工作的重心逐渐由单一经济目标规划转变为社会、经济、环境综合目标规划,区域规划方法由定性描述、分析转变为使用系统工程、多目标规划、地理信息系统等系统化、定量化的方法,区域规划成果也由一次性静态指标转变为一系列动态规划方案。在这一背景下,本文进行区域动态规划与控制系统(Regional Dynamic Planning and Control System,RDPCS)的研究,旨在通过构建RDPCS系统,有机协调社会、经济、环境三方面的因素,通过仿真模型和参考模型的运行和比较,对区域规划形成动态、连续、无终止的决策支持,使区域规划在初步方案的指导下,根据实际执行情况以及环境状态的变化不断调整和完善,从而保证区域规划整体目标的逐步实现和区域竞争力的持续提高。本文首先论述了RDPCS系统的理论基础,通过对区域规划、区域经济学、循环经济、可持续发展等基础理论的论述和分析,阐明RDPCS系统的内涵、建模原则和架构设计。然后,本文对RDPCS仿真模型的系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)基础和运行机制进行了介绍,阐述了应用SD研究RDPCS仿真模型的基本观点,接着对RDPCS仿真模型的建模目的和原则进行了说明,从模型总体架构、系统边界、子系统划分、子系统的关系及演化、主要变量及因果反馈回路、模型的输出及响应等各方面对RDPCS仿真模型进行了深入研究。另一方面,本文展开了RDPCS参考模型的建模研究。首先阐述了参考模型建模的意义和步骤,说明了构建参考区域集的方法,接着对现有的区域评价方法进行了比较,在确定决策单元、设计评价指标体系的基础上,采用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)方法中的超效率模型对参考区域进行评价和分析,通过筛选出的参考区域计算基准值,并说明了利用趋势预测模型构建RDPCS参考模型的方法。最后,基于上述理论和方法,在K区域进行实证研究,证明RDPCS系统合理可行,较好地实现了对区域规划的决策支持和动态管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the regional economic development, the acceleration of the industrialization and the advance of the urbanization, many problems become more serious, such as the protection of the environment, the usage of the resources, the human-earth relations, etc., and the regional planning has become one of the most important methods to harmonize the development of the region and to solve the bottleneck in the development process. For the traditional tools and methods can not accommodate to the new circumstance, the focus of the regional planning has changed from the sole economy target to the integrated target of the society, economy and environment, the method of the regional planning has changed from the qualitative analysis to the systematic and quantitative analysis, such as System Engineering, Multi-Objective Planning, Geography Information System, etc., and the result has also changed from one static plan to a series of dynamic plan. Under this background, the dissertation studied about the theory and application of the Regional Dynamic Planning and Control System (RDPCS), which can synthetically consider the effects of the society, economy and environment and provide a dynamic, continuous and endless support for the regional planning by systematical comparing the simulation model and reference model. The primary regional plan can be adjusted according to its execution and the change of the environment with the RDPCS, thus the integrative targets of the region could be achieved step by step and the regional competence could be improved continually.Firstly, the fundamental theory of the RDPCS was put forward. Through the discussion and analysis of the theory about regional planning, regional economy, cycling economy and sustainable development, the meaning,the principle and the structure of the RDPCS were presented, which established the stable theory foundation of the RDPCS. Secondly,the theory and mechanism of the System Dynamics (SD) in RDPCS were introduced and the way to build the simulation model was described. The target and principle of the simulation model of RDPCS were provided, and the whole structure, system boundary, the relations between sub-systems, main variables, the cause and effect feed back circles and the export and respond system of the model were also presented. Then, the reference model of the RDPCS was studied in this dissertation. The significance and approach of the reference model were showed and the method to build the reference region set was addressed. Based on the summarization and comparison of the current region evaluation methods, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method was chosen, the decision-making units and evaluation indicator system were presented, and the reference region was evaluated by the Super-Efficiency DEA model. After calculating the benchmark of the model, this dissertation put forward the method to establish the reference model of RDPCS by using the trend forecast model. Finally, the research about the application of the RDPCS in K region was provided and the effectiveness of the system was demonstrated. The PDPCS reflected the development of K region preferably and objectively and help the government realize the decision-making support and dynamic management about regional planning.更多还原