【作者】 窦宗军；

【导师】 王春峰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 京津冀区域经济一体化发展模型研究,是当前我国区域经济发展中的一个难点问题。涉及区域间如何实现优势互补、协调发展,是继长三角、珠三角经济圈发展、推动我国经济结构调整优化的重要举措,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文研究京津冀区域经济一体化发展问题。主要内容有:一是在分析了国内外有关区域合作理论的基础上,以Leontief发明的投入产出技术为基础,将不同区域相同年度的投入产出表加工整合,成功编制了京津冀区域8部门和42部门经济一体化投入产出表,解决了京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用问题;二是在此基础上,设计出环京津创业带是由河北省境内以北京-天津轴线为中心的呈“C”型分布的构成的带状经济6城市区域;三是应用改进RAS方法对直接消耗系数矩阵进行修正,在考虑“十一五”国民经济社会发展计划目标的前提下,预测出2010年京津冀区域各产品部门最终需求值,从而完成了京津冀区域42部门经济一体化投入产出预测模型的构建,提出了京津冀区域各项指标的预测值,并与长三角、珠三角发展对比,作出了“十一五”期间该区域发展的政策建议。四是将投入产出模型与层次分析方法及多目标规划方法相结合,对其一个地区进行了主导产业部门的选择和优化研究,提出了主导产业部门的增长对国民经济带动影响程度、“十一五”期间国民经济主要指标预测方案。五是京津冀经济一体化模型的建立与应用研究,均建立在相同年度不同区域其各自编制的投入产出表之上,这是一种科学的探索,它不仅是基础数据准确、完整,也使有关模型易于系统化,为全国其他区域经济一体化的研究提供了途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on development model of economic integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, is currently a hard issue in regional economic development in China. Involving how to achieve complementary dominance, coordinated development, further to the Yangtze River Delta Area and the Pearl River Delta Area, it is an major measure used to push the optimization of reconstruction of economic structure, and is of great significance both theoretically and practically.This paper conducts a research on economic integration development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The contents are as follows: firstly, on the basis of theories of regional cooperation both at home and abroad, based on Leontief’s input-output technology, input-output tables of 8 sectors and 42 sectors respectively are compiled, which solves the problem of establishment and application of the said model; secondly, Circling Beijing-Tianjin Undertaking Belt is the six urban areas in C shape with the axis of Beijing-Tianjin as centers; thirdly, by means of RAS approach, direct consumption coefficient matrix is revised, by taking into consideration of the objective of national economic and social development for the eleventh“Five-year Plan”. The final demand values of various product sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2010 are predicted, hence, the input-output model of 42 sectors comes into being. Compared with development in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, this paper comes up with suggestions for development in the Area. Fourthly, by combining input-output model with step analysis method and multi-objective plan method, research is conducted on choice and optimization of dominating sector of a certain region, and major indicators prediction approach is produced. Lastly, this paper undertakes research on establishment and application of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Integration Model, which is based on input-output table of the same year but different region (compiled by Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei respectively). This is a kind of scientific exploration with accurate and complete data. Moreover, it promotes systemization of relevant models, providing a method for research on regional economic integration in other parts of the country.更多还原