【作者】 石菊松；

【导师】 吴树仁； 徐瑞春；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质科学院 ， 地质工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 滑坡风险评估与管理一直是国际上倡导和推广的减灾防灾有效途径之一,本文在阐述滑坡风险评估术语和框架的基础上,全面分析了当前国内外开展滑坡风险评估的研究进展,围绕滑坡风险评估与制图中滑坡编录和基础数据获取与更新,危险性分析中的滑坡空间、时间概率和Runout预测、损失评估中的易损性分析与定量和承灾体定量化制图等技术方法中的难点和存在的问题,并概述针对这些问题所取得的最新研究进展。通过对遥感技术在滑坡研究中应用综述,认为遥感技术在区域区域滑坡风险评估中具有支撑技术作用,是数据、信息获取与更新的主要技术手段和方法,结合近年来在遥感技术应用于滑坡风险研究中遇到的问题和国外滑坡遥感技术的新进展,将从遥感影像在滑坡风险评估中的作用、解译能力、影响解译的因素、精度评价和遥感数据源选择等角度阐述常用遥感技术在滑坡风险评估应用中存在的问题,并指出了滑坡风险评估的技术发展趋势。在基于RS和GIS的滑坡风险评估的关键技术体系方面,本文详细阐述了RS在滑坡灾害识别和空间数据获取中的应用技术方法:较为系统地阐述了滑坡风险评估与制图中的敏感性、危险性和风险区划的技术流程与实施方案。利用ArcGIS空间分析功能和图解建模方式构建滑坡风险评估数据信息获取和处理的软件工具,实现了数据信息的快速批量处理与提取;根据滑坡敏感性专家系统方法、统计模型等方法的技术流程,按照难易程度,分别采用图解建模方式,脚本语言定制和ArcObject开发的模式开发和构建了基于ArcGIS和ERDAS软件平台的滑坡敏感性数据处理软件工具。以清江流域隔河岩库区为研究对象,在1:5滑坡详细调查、编录和遥感影像解译的基础上,利用DEM数据,ETM影像及基础地质数据,借助滑坡敏感性数据处理软件工具完成了清江隔河岩库区滑坡敏感性评价因子的提取与制图,以及相关性统计分析,利用不同模型方法实现了1:5万的滑坡敏感性分区评价,其中,高敏感区占10.53%中敏感区占8.54%,低敏感区占18.8%,极低敏感区占62.15%。在重点地段1:1万滑坡填图及工程地质条件的详细调查与制图的基础上,结合Quick bird影像、5m DEM数据和1:1万基础地质图,利用基于脚本语言定制的证据权工具程序,以自然斜坡为计算单元实现了滑坡敏感性分区计算,并利用典型地段的宏观地质分析和地形地质剖面实现了滑坡敏感性分区。从滑坡的动态诱发因素、现有滑坡的稳定性、Runout和影响范围,滑坡频率、重大诱发事件的年超越概率的角度对滑坡的危险性进行分析,并开展了基于滑坡编录的承灾体制图及易损性评价和风险的定性分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 There have been improving emphasizes on the landslide risk assessment and management methodology and key techniques development for the domestic and overseas landslide study in recent years. Based on the illustration of the terminology and framework of landslide risk assessment, this paper reviews the problems and difficulties related to landslide inventory, basic data acquisition and updating, the determination of landslide spatial and temporal probability, the modeling of landslide run-out and characteristic aspect predication, and consequence analysis includes vulnerability quantitative analysis and element at risk quantitative mapping as well. Furthermore, an overview of recent developments in the different approaches to landslide hazard and risk assessment is given. As for remote sensing techniques for landslide study, this paper reviews the newly application and development of for landslide study and states that RS techniques offer a solid technique infrastructure, and exploits its potential development for landslide risk assessment at 5 phases: basic topographical data acquisition and extraction, landslide inventory and mapping, monitoring, landslide diagnostic factors mapping and element at risk mapping. From the role of RS in landslide study, interpretability, causative condition that influence landslide identification, accuracy assessment and RS data source selection, the author states and discuss some questionable and arguable aspects in the application of RS for landslide risk assessment, and as well the main trend of landslide risk assessment methodologies and techniques development is given.On the key techniques study for RS and GIS based landslide risk assessment methodology, this paper states application techniques of RS for landslide identification and spatial data acquisition. And the technique formwork and application scheme of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zonation were systematic represented as well. With the help of ArcGIS software spatial analysis function and diagram modeling, software tools for data or information acquisition and data geoprocessing were achieved, which can carry out data and information batch processing and rapid extraction. According to the methodologies and degree of difficulty of expert system, statistic models and etc. for landslide susceptibility mapping, diagram modeling, script and ArcObject software development were used respectively to carry out software tools based on ArcGIS and ERDAS platform for landslide susceptibility mapping.The regional area of Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River in the eastern Hubei province was selected as case study area. Based on the landslide investigation, landslide inventory and RS imagery interpreation, DEM data , ETM+ satellite image and feature dataset, lithological map were used to generate landslide diagnostic factors and the relationship between the landslide spatial distribution and diagnostic factors statistical analysis were carried out the software tools, with different methods the susceptibility zonation of the Geheyan reservoir area of the Qingjiang River were carried out and divided into 4 classes: the high class covers 10.53%, the median class covers 8.54%, the low class covers 18.8% , whereas the extremely low class covers 62.15%. Based on the important section landslide mapping and basic engineering condition investigation at 1:10000 scale, with Quick bird imagery, 5m resolution DEM and basic geological map at 1:10000 scale, weight of evidence model software tools developed by script were used to carry out the landslide susceptibility zonation with natual slope unit as the basic assess unit, which integrated with the geological analysis and topological and gelological profile, landslide susceptibility zonation map were carried out. Landslide hazard were assessed from the following aspects: the dynamic triggering factors, the stability of exsiting landslide, runout and potential affect area, landslide frequence and heavy accident excess probability. And element at risk mapping, vulnerability and risk were qualitative assessed based on landslide inventory as well.更多还原