【作者】 高杰；

【导师】 冯启民；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文系统地介绍了给水工程综合防灾规划编制的要求和主要内容,并详细研究了相关的研究方法和模型。在此基础上又结合GIS技术和决策支持技术开发了给水工程综合防灾规划空间决策支持系统CDPP SDSS,同时结合烟台经济技术开发区的数据进行了实例演示。本文的研究主要包括以下5个方面:(1)综合目前在城市灾害预测、防灾减灾管理以及规划等多方面的研究成果,确立了城市综合防灾规划的目的、地位和主要包含的内容,并进一步针对给水工程提出了编制综合防灾规划的技术路线,明确了综合防灾规划应该包含的灾害识别、灾害风险分析、设防标准和防灾建议以及规划方案制定等几方面的内容。(2)在灾害识别的基础上,针对烟台开发区给水工程所面对的主要灾害,即地震、地质和洪水灾害分别进行了灾害风险分析。对于地震灾害,介绍了通过地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震损失分析构成的定量分析地震风险的方法;对于地质和洪水灾害则采用了模糊综合评判的方法,通过建立灾害风险评价指标以及相应指标的隶属函数来半定量地分析地质和洪水风险。(3)针对地震灾害介绍了给水工程抗震设防标准的优化选择模型。该模型首先计算由地震损失和设防投入之和构成的期望总损失,然后分别对各个烈度作为设防烈度的期望总损失进行比较,取极小值对应的地震烈度作为设防水准,并据此提出相应的设防要求。(4)提出了给水工程规划决策分析模型WDSM。该模型首先利用层次分析法对城市土地综合灾害危险性进行评价并用综合灾害指数来表达,同时还要分析主导灾害类型,在此基础上利用ArcView9.2的空间叠置分析求得可以用作管网规划的备用线路的综合灾害指数和主导灾害类型;然后根据线路综合灾害指数的大小利用ArcView9.2网络分析模块中的连通性分析功能,结合一些布局约束条件对备用线路自动进行筛选,得到规划建议布局;最后则是针对主导灾害类型和设防标准的要求提出相应的防灾建议,并与规划建议布局图相关联,从而形成最终的给水工程规划建议方案,为规划者提供决策支持。(5)详细介绍了GIS技术、DSS技术以及SDSS技术发展和特点,着重分析了SDSS技术在空间问题分析方面的应用优势,在此基础上将SDSS与给水工程综合防灾规划相结合,利用ArcView9.2的GIS平台,以Oracle9i的后台数据库为基础,内嵌针对给水工程规划内容的专业分析模型,采用VB.NET语言和AO技术研发了给水工程综合防灾规划空间决策支持系统CDPP SDSS,并对系统的设计和功能进行了详细的说明,最后又通过烟台开发区的实际数据对CDPP SDSS进行了演示。论文的创新点主要为:1)首次针对城市综合防灾规划的具体问题进行了研究,明确了城市综合防灾规划应该包含的主要内容,并通过给水工程综合防灾规划详细分析了规划编制过程中的各个环节及相应的方法。2)首次提出了给水工程综合防灾规划决策分析模型WDSM,该模型主要利用层次分析法以及GIS的空间叠置和网络分析方法,能够从防灾的角度自动生成规划建议方案,从而实现辅助决策支持的功能。3)首次将SDSS技术应用到了综合防灾规划领域,并自主研发了给水工程综合防灾规划空间决策支持系统CDPP SDSS。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of the thesis is to illustrate the main contents of comprehensive disaster prevention plan for water supply system and to examine the approaches involved in compiling plan. Moreover, the Spatial Decision Support System for Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Plan (CDPP_SDSS) developed on the basis of GIS and DSS is introduced in details and demonstrated with the data of Yantai Economy & Technology Development Area (YTETDA).The main work of this study includes five parts as follows:1) The objectives and primary contents of comprehensive disaster prevention plan (CDPP) and the relationship between CDPP and other urban plans are firstly discussed based on present researches on urban disaster predictions, disaster mitigation management and disaster prevention plans. Then aiming at water supply system, particular specification is further made about technical routine of compiling CDPP and major parts of CDPP such as identifying principal disasters, analyzing disaster risks, ascertaining fortified criteria and making blue print.2) The analysis of disaster risks are executed in allusion to three important natural disasters, namely earthquake, geological disasters and flood, resulting from disaster identification for water supply system in YTETDA. During the whole process, a quantitative approach for seismic risk analysis, which involves seismic hazard analysis, seismic vulnerability analysis and lost estimation, is concretely explained. Meanwhile, a semi-quantitative method, called fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, for flood and geological disasters is also illuminated in which more emphases are placed on the establishment of evaluation indexes and subjection functions.3) An optimized approach to anti-seismic fortified criteria for water supply system is introduced in this dissertation. In this method, sums of direct seismic loss and defense cost, called expected total loss, under different seismic defense intensities are calculated and then compared. The seismic intensity corresponding to the least expected total loss can be regarded as the optimal defense intensity and requirements of construction can also be suggested.4) In order to get more efficient aided decision-making support, a decision support analysis model for CDPP for water supply system, named WDSM, is proposed based on the previous study in this paper. Firstly, the synthesized disaster hazard in every plot is evaluated in WDSM based on the results of disaster risk analyses and analytic hiberarchy process (AHP) and expressed by synthesized disaster index LDI. During the calculation of LDI, the primary disaster of each plot can also be identified as well. Secondly, synthesized disaster index RDI and major disaster of each route possibly for water pipe plan are further obtained by using spatial superposition analysis of Arcview9.2. Based on RDI, the selection of route for plan is made on the condition of layout restrictions and net connectivity analysis of GIS to contribute the advised layout of water pipes. Finally, the aided blue print of CDPP for water supply system will be achieved with the combination of advised layout and defense requirements and suggestions which are from major disaster analysis and demands of defense criteria.5) The study proposed a spatial decision support system framework for CDPP after the specific introduction of the development and characteristics of GIS, DSS and SDSS, and the full explanation of advantage of combining SDSS and CDPP for water supply system. This system was developed on Arcview9.2 and Oracle 9i with VB programming language and AO technology. In this thesis, the general design of the system and the concrete design of structures and functions of each modules embedded in CDPP_SDSS are narrated and demonstrated with the real data of YTETDA.Comparing with related researches in this field, the three main innovations of this study are: 1) to firstly clarify the specific contents of CDPP and illustrate the technical routine of compiling CDPP through the example of CDPP for water supply system; 2) to propose the decision support analysis model for CDPP for water supply system-WDSM, which can automatically present an advised blue print for water pipe plan from the view of disaster prevention and mitigation by using AHP method and spatial superposition analysis and net connectivity analysis of GIS; 3) to firstly apply SDSS technology to the field of comprehensive disaster prevention and independently develop the spatial decision support system for CDPP for water supply system-CDPP_SDSS.更多还原