【作者】 孟晓军；

【导师】 刘志辉；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 自然地理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 经济增长理论从形成到发展,无论是古典、新古典增长理论,还是内生增长理论,在研究经济增长问题时大都回避了自然资源对经济增长的约束问题。然而,随着经济的不断增长和资源消耗的加剧,资源对经济的约束作用显得越来越明显。将自然资源作为一种要素投入纳入经济增长模型加以考量,研究在资源约束下的经济增长和经济增长中的资源约束问题,从理论上探寻缓解资源约束的对策,就显得很有理论和现实意义了。鉴于水资源作为西北干旱地区社会经济发展最重要的控制性资源。当前,由于气候变化和人类活动的影响,水资源面临短缺,导致生态系统退化及其服务功能降低,经济发展速度减慢,水资源正在成为生态系统和经济发展的限制性因素。本篇论文在国内外对区域经济增长和水资源相关研究进展和评价的基础上,将水资源作为一生产要素纳入到传统的经济增长模型当中,系统考察水资源与经济增长的关系,尤其是水资源对经济增长的制约强度及其合理调控进行了探讨。论文在修正以往概念提出了水资源约束力的概念,作为分析工具,建立了水资源约束力研究的基本框架。在此框架下,较为系统地探讨了影响经济增长的水资源约束理论、水资源约束力的变化规律与变化机制。然后以乌鲁木齐为典型案例,在单体绿洲城市发展与水资源适应性分析的基础上,对水资源对区域发展约束程度进行了测算,采用定量预警方法,对乌鲁木齐水资源对经济增长约束强度的变化趋势进行了短中期预测;最后基于分析结果,提出了有效调控干旱区水资源约束力的经济增长模式与对策。主要研究结论为:(一)在国内外经济增长与水资源关系的研究进展与评价的基础上,借鉴鲍超提出的关于水资源约束力概念,结合本文的研究主题,修正并提出水资源约束力的概念,通过对包括经济系统熵理论、“木桶”原理、约束理论、水—经济复合系统理论、可持续发展理论等一系列理论的横断交叉分析,建立起水资源约束的理论架构和机制分析,构建水资源约束力这一分析工具,探讨水资源对经济约束作用的形成机理、影响因素、影响机制和变化规律以及调控途径,对实现西北干旱缺水地区水资源可持续利用与经济增长具有重要的理论与实践意义。(二)水资源约束力是由于水资源短缺而产生的对经济系统发展的阻滞力,水资源短缺是水资源约束力产生的物理实体和微观机制,采用社会科学与自然科学相结合的边缘科学的综合求证法,提出了干旱区水资源短缺的临界值理论曲线。利用生态系统水分需求的阈值存在理论,在可持续发展的理念下,对倒U型水资源约束曲线进行划段,结合经济增长与水资源利用的耦合表现,提出了在理想情况下水资源约束呈现出的时间变化规律和内在机制。(三)依据协同学中的支配原理提出了在一定分析前提条件下和不同时间尺度上,建立了水资源对经济增长的约束测度模型。结果表明水资源对经济增长的影响是客观存在的,而且还可以度量。并以乌鲁木齐为例作了实证分析,研究典型研究区近20年来经济增长过程与水资源利用的耦合关系。在长期内每年经济增长的速度由于水资源的损耗每年要降低1.51%;在短期内通过构造的用水结构系数,设计了用水结构系数约束度计算公式,提出了用水库茨涅茨曲线。水资源的短缺已对经济增长产生了明显的约束作用。(四)建立水资源约束力评价的指标体系,构建水资源对经济发展约束强度的综合测度模型。在分别建立水资源系统综合测度指标体系、经济发展系统综合测度指标体系和调节反馈指标体系综合测度指标的基础上,采用熵技术支持下的AHP法计算各级指标权重,采用模糊隶属度函数模型计算各具体指标的隶属度值,采用加权平均法分别计算出水资源系统开发利用综合指数、经济系统综合发展指数和调节反馈能力综合指数,然后在此基础上,构建基于压力-状态-响应框架下的水资源约束力评估模型,计算水资源对经济发展的约束强度。通过对1995年以来乌鲁木齐市水资源约束力讨论其内在的演变规律。(五)利用神经网络模型,研究干旱区水资源对经济增长约束强度的预警模型。鉴于人工神经网络具有较好的预测预报功能及非线性识别能力,以水资源系统和区域经济系统发展变化的历史数据为基础,利用人工神经网络进行指标预测和综合评价,对乌鲁木齐市将来几年进行短中期预测。结果表明,在未来四年,水资源约束强度会不断上升,对经济发展的制约强度会越来越大。(六)提出基于水资源约束力研究的干旱区经济发展模式与对策。自然资源要素禀赋的相对固定和不可流动性,以及与劳动、资本要素之间的不完全替代性,是导致经济增长最终遭遇资源瓶颈而陷入停滞甚至倒退的根源。在突破水资源约束的经济学分析基础上,在水资源约束力分析框架下以提高水资源经济效益和区域健康发展为模式选择的约束条件,提出了西北干旱区区域发展模式选择的基本原则和战略思路以及合理调控干旱区水资源约束力的发展模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economical growth theory from forms to the development,regardless of the classical growth theory and the endogenous growth theory,when researching economic growth question they mostly have avoided the natural resource as the restraint factor to the economy growth.However,along with the economical constant growth and intensifying resources consumption,the restraint function of the resources on the economy appears more and more obviously.It is heroically and the practically significance very much to bring the natural resource as a kind of essential factor into the economical growth model to consider and study the economical growth question under the resources restraint,theoretically propose countermeasure to alleviate the resources restraint.In view of the fact that the water resources acts as the most important controllability resources on social economic develops in northwest arid area.Presently,because of the climatic change and the humanity moves,water resources faces short to cause the ecosystem degeneration and the service function reducing and to slow the rate of economic development,the water resources is becoming the restrictive factor of the ecosystem and the economical development,on the basis of the evaluation on the domestic and foreign research in economy growth and the water resources correlation,This paper brings the water resources as a element of production into the traditional economical growth model,systematically inspecting the relations between the water resources and the economy grow,especially discussing the restriction intensity of the water resources on the economy and the reasonable regulation.The paper proposed the concept of Water Resources Constraint Force by revising former concept,take it as a analytical tool to establish the research bare bone of Water Resources Constraint Force.Under this frame,systematically discussing the basic theories,the variation laws and mechanisms of water resources constraint force,then take the city of Urumqi as a case,on the basis of the compatibility analysis on the monomer oasis urban development and the water resources,survey the restraint degree of water on the region development,use the quota early warning method to estimate the growth change tendency of the restraint intensity of Urumqi water resources on the economical on the short mid range.Finally based on the analysis result,proposed the effective regulative pattern and the countermeasure on Water Resources Constraint Force in arid area.Main results of this dissertation go as follows:(1)On the basis of the evaluation on the domestic and foreign research in economy growth and the water resources correlation,borrow ideas from Bao Chao to propose about the Water Resources Constraint Force concept,through the crossover analyzing of a series of the basic theories including the Theory of Economy System Entropy,the Theory of "Wooden Barrel",Theory of Constraints, Theory of Water-Ecology-Economy Multiple System,and Theory of Sustainable Development,establish the theory overhead of the water resources restraint and mechanism analyzing,construct the tool to analyze.Through the study of the birth mechanism,influencing factors,influencing mechanism,variation law of water resources constraint force and its control,it is important to realize water resources sustainable utilization and economic growth in water deficient regions.(2) The Water Resources Constraint Force is the hinderer strength to the economical system development,while water resources shortage is the physical entity and the microscopic mechanism as a result of the Water Resources Constraint Force,we use synthesis proof law of interdisciplinary science combined by the social sciences and the natural sciences,proposed the short marginal value theoretical curve of arid area water resources,using the ecosystem moisture content demand threshold valueexistencetheory,under the sustainable development idea,delimiting the section of the invertible U curve of water resources constraint, taking the coupling performance of the economy growth with the water resources use,proposing the time variation rule and the intrinsic mechanism of Water Resources Constraint in the ideal situation.(3)Based on the control principle of the Theory of coordination,the paper propose the restraint measure model of water on the economy in the certain analysis prerequisite and the different time criterion.Finally shows the influence of water on the economy is the objective existence,moreover also may be measured.And take Urumqi as the example to make the real diagnosis analysis,study the coupling relations between economies growth process and the water resources in the research area for 20 year.the speed of economy reduce1.51%every year because of the water resources loss,the water resources restraint intensity equally is 0.0151;in the short term,through the coefficient of used water structure,we has designed the restraint formula of used water structure coefficient,proposing Kuzenets curve.The water resources have being the obvious restraint function to the economical growth. (4) Establishing the appraisal target system of Water Resources Constraint Force, constructs the synthesis measure model of restraint intensity of the water resources to the economical development,after separately establishing the water resources system synthesis measure target system,the economical development system synthesis measure target system and the adjustment feedback target system synthesis measure target,we use the AHP law supported by the entropy technical to compute all levels of targets weight,use the fuzzy subordination function model to calculate subordination values of each concrete target,use the weighted mean method to separately calculate the water resources system development use composite index,the economical system synthesis development index and the adjustment feedback ability composite index,then based on this,construct the appraisal model of Water Resources Constraint Force based on the pressure-condition-response frame,then compute the restraint intensity of water resources to the economical development,and carries on restraint intensity of the water resources to the economical development to the graduation.(5) Using artificial nerve network model,research the early warning model method of restraint intensity of water resources to economical growth in arid area.In view of the fact that the artificial nerve network has the better forecast function and the non-linearity recognition capability,take the change historical data of water resources system and the regional economic system development as a foundation,use artificial nerve network to carry on the target forecast and the synthesis appraisal.(6) Proposing economy development pattern and the countermeasure in arid area based on the water resources constraint force research.The relative fix and unfluidity of natural resource essential factor,as well as the incomplete vicariousness between the work,capital essential factors,cause the economy to finally encounter the resources bottleneck to fall into stagnates even backs up.under the analysis frame of water resources constraint force,to enhance the water resources economic efficiency andtheregion health development as the pattern choice restraint condition,propose development pattern choice basic principle and the strategic mentality as well as the corresponding development pattern in northwest arid area region.更多还原