【作者】 杨振；

【导师】 牛叔文；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 人文地理学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 “经济活动最突出的地理特征是什么?简明的回答必定是集中”。经济的空间分布具有集中性特点,人口的空间分布及演化亦是如此。本文在中国经济集中、人口流动的宏观背景下,根据二者之间的有机联系,从经济地理学的视角出发,定性、定量分析相结合,对中国人口与经济空间分布的关系进行探讨,并以中国不同尺度的区域为例进行实证研究。第一,县域尺度的人口-经济空间分布静态分析。以全国县域人口、经济数据为基础,利用人口(经济)密度、人口(经济)比重、人口(经济)地理集中度等指标刻画了我国2000年静态的人口.经济空间分布特征。我国人口空间分布与经济空间分布规律类似,在地域上都呈现出极不平衡的特征。其中,东南半壁人口高度稠密,经济相对发达:西北半壁人口则远为稀疏,经济也相对落后。利用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)技术,对县域人口.经济分布特征进行空间统计分析,初步辨明了我国人口、经济分布的空间关联特征。各县域人口、经济分布的不一致指数,在空间上存在显著的自相关性和异质性。不一致指数较低(高)的县域与其周围同样不一致指数不高(低)的县域,在空间上更多地趋于集聚,而非随机分布。第二,省域尺度的人口.经济重心轨迹动态分析。利用几何重心法得到中国自1952年以来人口.经济重心的变动数据,表明自解放以来,中国人口与经济在空间分布上发生了显著变动。基于GRA(Grey Relational Analysis,GRA)模型的关联性分析表明,GDP与三次产业产值的空间分布变动与人口的空间分布变动具有较高的关联性。虽然如此,人口与经济在空间分布上依然具有较大程度的偏离。解放以来我国生产向东部地区集中的同时,人口却因为各种原因而未发生相应的集中,从而造成我国东部沿海地区与中西部地区的生产与人口、就业分布格局的高度失衡,这是导致我国地区差距的重要原因。消除一切制约人口跨地区流动的制度及非制度因素,促进人口健康、有序流动,可以使人口与经济在地理空间分布上达到“均衡”,从而在一定程度上消除地区差距。第三,经济的城市集中与城市指向的人口流动响应分析。利用定性与定量相结合的方法,对中国经济的城市集中与城市指向的人口流动响应问题进行探讨。表明传统工业化战略的城市化倾向与农村经济弱化,导致了经济的城市集中,使大量的剩余劳动力滞留于农业部门,拉大了城乡居民之间的收入差异和消费差异。以城市为指向,劳动力从农业部门向非农部门的转换速度、方向和国民经济发展及人口管制政策密切相关。基于城乡劳动力转换模型的理论推导表明,农业部门劳动力向农村非农产业部门、城市工业部门与城市服务业部门的转换与城乡差距之间存在密切关系。利用1996-2005年各省份的面板数据模型进行分析,发现我国城市指向的人口流动与城乡收入差距和消费差距呈同向变动趋势。第四,经济的区域集中与区域指向的人口流动响应分析。解放以来,特别是改革开放以后,中国的经济集聚主要发生在长江三角洲、珠江三角洲与环渤海地区。解放至1980年代中期以前,中国省际人口迁移长期受到国家社会经济计划和政治运动的深刻影响,是在严格的二元户籍制度管理下进行的。1980年代中期以后,人口流动与经济分布的相关性大大增强。迁移目的地更多地集中在东部沿海的几个省份,特别是处在改革前沿的广东省,接受了来自中西部省份的大量净移民。利用多元回归方法,从实证的角度证明一个省份的工业GDP在全国工业GDP总额中的比重越大,迁入该省的劳动力所占份额也越大。与1985-1990年相比,1995-2000年的工业集聚对劳动力的“拉动效应”更为强劲。秩相关分析结果也支持这一结论。第五,经济集中与人口流动背景下人口产业结构变动及其协调性评价。中国实际的人口产业结构变化与经典的人口产业结构理论不尽吻合,其演化进程表现出自身的特点和规律,与当时的经济背景有密切关系。三次产业的就业结构与产值结构,是劳动力产业结构复合系统的序参量,对系统协调发展至关重要,但各个序参量对系统演化的贡献存在较大差异。在经济集中与人口流动背景下,利用基于协同论的协调度评价模型,对三次产业的就业与产值结构的变动协调性进行评价,表明我国劳动力产业结构在1984年以前的协调性波动幅度很大,而1984年以后的协同演进态势趋于理性。这种情况与我国经济的区域集中与人口流动响应在时间上的变动趋势,具有一定吻合性。这一结果为引导劳动力流动及经济资源的合理布局提供了科学依据。第六,人口分布、经济集中与地区经济差异之间的关系分析。以甘肃省为例,基于人口分布、经济集中的视角,对地区经济差异问题进行分析。研究发现,甘肃省人口分布有向以兰州都市圈为中心的区域集中的趋势,全省的经济分布也有向陇中地区集中的倾向,但二者的集中区域和程度有所差异。与国外典型核心区相比,甘肃省的经济集中度偏低,而人口集中度更低。以人均GDP为指标,利用基尼系数方法对甘肃省地区差距进行分解,发现区域间经济差异主要是由于第二、三产业发展的不均衡造成的,第二、三产业的空间集聚推动了地区差距的扩大。甘肃自20世纪90年代以来的地区经济差距形成的主要原因,不是生产过多地集中到核心发达区域,而是生产向核心区不断集中的过程中,人口却没有相应地向那里集中,从而造成核心发达区域的生产与人口分布高度失衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 ’What is the most prominent geographic characteristic of economy activities? The concise answer is centralizing’. Be similar with economic spatial distribution, the characteristic of population spatial distribution is spatial centrality. Based on plenty of studies, this paper, according to correlation among economy centrality, population distribution and population migration, studied the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in China. Meanwhile, in view of economic geography, took some regions with different scales as examples, the paper hammered at demonstration, combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis.Firstly, static analyis on population-economic spatial distribution with county’s scale. Based on population and economic data of 2355 counties, the paper has depicted static population-economic spatial distibution characteristic in China in 2000, by using indices including population(economy) decsity, proportion and geographic centralizing. The same as economyic spatial distrubiton, the spatial distrubtion of population is very lopsided. Population is very dense and economy is relatively developed in southeast regions. However, Population is sparse and economy is developing in northwest. By using GIS and ESDA, the paper showed that there exist prominent spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity about variance index in all counties. These counties with the higher or the lower variance index were inclined to locate together, but not stochastic distribution.Secondly, dynaic analyis on population-economic spatial distribution with province’s scale. The data coming from geometry barycenter indicated that population-economic spatial distribution has changed prominently since liberation of China. By use of GRA model, the paper showed that there is very high relevancy bewteen economy and population spatial distribution. Nevertheless, there is departure to some extent. Economy trends to centralizing in east-littoral regions but population is not followed, which results in the unbalance bewteen economy, population and employment. Therefor, it is necessary to eliminate system and non-system factors which restrict migration across regions, to promote ’equilibrium’ on spatial distribution bewteen population and economy.Thirdly, analysis on economic urban-centralizing and its response of urban-pointing migration. Combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper showed that tradional urban-inclining industrialization strategy and uncultured rural economics led to economic urban-centralizing and plenty of labour force in rural regions, which enlarged income and consumption difference bewteen townspeople and countrymen. Pointing to city, migration scale and velocity from countries were related with economy development and population policy. Analysis on theory model showed there was affinity beween rural-urban migration and rural-urban difference. By use of the pool model including data of 31 provinces from 1996 to 2005, we has proved that the change direction of urban-pointing migration is same as rural-urban income and consumption difference.Fourthly, analysis on economic region-centralizing and its response of region-pointing migration. Industrial centralizing is mainly located in Changjian delta, Zhujiang delta and regions around Bo-sea since liberration, specially, since reform and opening. Under the ground of rigorous hokou adminiseration system, interprovincal migration is affected strongly by economic plan and politics movements from liberation to 1980s. Relativity bewteen migration and economic distribution increases after the middle of 1980s. Some provinces become destinations of migration and Guangdong province which reformation is advanced, especially, attracts a great lot of migrations from the Midwest. According to the multi-regress analysis method, the paper showed that the proportion of migration into the province is higher if its proportion of industrial GDP is higher. Compared with 1985-1990, ’drawing effect’ of industrial centralizing on migrations becomes more stronger whin 1995-2000. Order correlation analysis also proofed the conclusion.Fifthly, Evaluate on population-industrial structure and its harmony under the background of economy centralizing and migration. Actual population-industrial structure in China is different from the correlative classical theory, Related with temporal economic background, and its evolvement has unique characteristic in itself. In the compound system about population-industrial structure, employment structure and production value structure are order parameters, which are important for systemic harmonious" development. However, every order parameter takes different effect on systemic evolvement. Under the ground of economy centralizing and migration, we have used harmony model based on synergetics to evaluates dynaic harmonizing degree bewteen employment and production value structure. The result showed that the harmonizing degree fluctuates greatly before 1984 and is to logos after 1984, which corresponds to the trend of economic centralizing and migration in time-serial. Scientific foundation is provided for steering migration and economic distribution with reason.Sixthly, Analysis on relationship among population, economy distribution and regional diversity. Taking Gansu Province as an example, the paper analyzed regional diversity based on relationship between population and economy distribution. We found that there is the current of population distribution to Lanzhou metropolitan area and current of economy distribution to Longzhong regions. However, the centralizing degree is different. Compared with the typical overseas core-regions, economy centralizing degree is low in Gansu Province, but population centralizing degree is more lower. Taking per GDP as the index, Gansu Province’s regional disparity was analyzed by use of Geordie coefficient method. It is imbalance of the secondary industry and tertiary industry distrbution that led to regional disparity, furthermore, spatial centralizing of the secondary industry and tertiary industry that enlarged regional disparity. In 1990s, during the course of economy centralizing to core-regions, population have not centralized there accordingly. So spatial imbalance of population and economy came into being, which caused regional disparity.更多还原