制度变迁中的中国经济增长潜力释放研究

【作者】 孔令宽；

【导师】 李国璋；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,国力得到加强,人民生活得以改善。这些成绩是如何取得的?或者说是由哪些要素决定的?哪些要素对中国经济增长起到了推动作用,哪些又起到了阻碍作用?影响经济增长潜力提升及释放的因素又有哪些?这一连串问题将是本文试图回答的对象。在回答这些问题之前,首先对经济增长要素理论研究进行回顾。以斯密为代表的古典经济学派对劳动力和资本要素对经济增长进行了研究,到以马歇尔为代表的新古典经济学派考虑了资本和劳动之外的组织要素对经济增长的作用,再到以罗默为代表的新经济增长学派把技术内生化作为经济增长的最主要因素,再到以诺斯为代表的新制度经济学派把制度作为促进经济增长的最主要要素。从此制度这个要素被引入到经济增长之中,这是本文研究的理论依据。改革开放以来中国经济增长所取得成就以及产生的问题是本文研究制度变迁的现实依据。在经济增长及制度变迁理论综述的基础上,本文基于丹尼尔·W·布罗姆利的制度变迁模型理论,把制度变迁分解为四种子制度变迁,分别是产权制度、市场化制度、分配制度以及对外开放制度的变迁。通过寻找四种制度变迁的替代变量来对其进行量化研究。为此,把经济成分中非国有化程度的变化作为产权制度变迁的替代变量;在前人市场化研究的基础上,本文设计了一套指标体系来计算中国的市场化程度;采用财政分配中的“第一比重”指标作为分配制度变迁的替代变量;通过设计对外开放度指标体系来研究我国的对外开放程度变迁。在对制度变迁进行研究的基础上,采用生产函数法和H-P滤波法进一步研究了资本、劳动以及技术对中国经济增长的贡献率。实证分析的结果显示中国经济增长最主要是由要素投入来推动,其中资本贡献率最大,接下来依次是制度变迁、劳动力和技术。此外,本文还计算了各要素在经济增长过程中的潜在增长率。通过实证分析得出中国经济增长可持续性不强,其质量也不高的结论。本文以浙江省和甘肃省为例对改革开放以来的制度变迁对经济增长的影响进行实证分析。同时,通过上述制度变迁理论和实证分析使得制度变迁过程中产生的问题变得容易理解,如环境恶化、贫富差距等问题。接下来本文对制度变迁过程中产生的问题进行分析。在对问题进行分析时,重点研究了贫富差距问题,根据相关研究表明贫富差距问题是当前社会最主要的问题。本文计算并应用了1985年以来全国基尼系数来研究我国贫富差距状况以及其对社会稳定和对经济政策的影响。通过对比分析俄罗斯和印度,可以得出政治体制变迁的滞后性已成为阻碍经济增长的最主要原因之一的结论。通过理论分析和实证研究,本文得出制度变迁过程中各要素对经济增长起到了促进作用且还有继续改进的空间。制度变迁在促进经济增长的同时,也带来了一些问题,如果这些问题能够避免或尽快解决,则经济增长潜力将会得到更大程度释放的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening-up, outstanding achievements have been made in China. China’s comprehensive power has been increased and people’s life has been improved. How does all this come into being? Or what elements have played a major role in all this? What factors in China have played a contributive role to its economy? And what factors have played an obstructive role? What factors are able to promote and release the economy potential in future? This series of questions will be dealt with in this paper.Before answering these questions, this paper will first review the theory of economic growth factors. The school of Classical economics headed by Adam Smith studies the factors of labor and capital and the school of neo-classical economics headed by Marshall Studies the role of economic factors other than labor and capital in economic development. Then the school of new economic development headed by Romer considers the technical internalization as the major factor in development. Besides that, the economic school headed by North regards institutions as the most important factor in development. After that the element of institutions was introduced to economic development. And this is the theoretical basis of this research. The realistic basis of this paper in the research of institutional changes is the achievements and problems that have arisen in China’s economic development since reform and opening-up.After the theory of economic development and institutional changes is reviewed, based on the theoretical model of institutional changes proposed by Daniel W. Bromley, this paper divides the institutional changes into four sub-changes of institutions, that is, that changes of property rights, market institutions, distribution institutions and the institutions of reform and opening-up. Variables that can replace the four changes will be searched for a quantitative research. Therefore, the change of the non-nationalization degree of economic components is treated as a replacement for the property rights. On the basis of others’ research on marketing, this paper designs a system of indicators that can be used to calculate China’s marketing degree. The "first proportion" in financial distribution is used as a replacement for the variable of the change of distributional institutions. And an indicator of China’s of degree of reform and opening-up will be designed to study the changes of China’s reform and opening-up degree.Based on the research on institutional changes, this paper further explores the contribution ratio of capital, label and technique to the increase of Chinese economy in terms of production function and H-P filtering. The empirical analysis shows that the increase of Chinese economy is mainly promoted by the increase of production factors, in which the contribution ratio of capital ranks the first, and institutional changes, labor and technique follow in turns. Additionally, the paper works out the potential increase ratio of each factor in the process of economic increase. By empirical analysis, it concludes that the increase of Chinese economy will not persist for a long time, and the quality of the economy is not high. The paper puts up empirical analysis between the institutional changes and the economic growth for example Zhejiang and Gansu province. At the same time, it is easier to understand the problems occurring in the process of institutional changes, such as the environmental worsening, the gap between the rich and the poor and so on. Also, this paper analyzes the problems occurring in the process of the institutional changes.In the analysis of these problems, the paper focuses on the problem of the gap between the rich and the poor, which is the prominent one in present society according to the related studies? By calculating and applying the Gini coefficient, the paper studies the present situation of the gap between the rich and the poor, and the influence of it on social stability and economic policy. The comparing and analyzing between Russia and India make it clear that the delaying of political institution change has been the most important cause hindering the economic increase.Through the theoretical analysis and the empirical study, the paper concludes that every factor plays a promotional role in economic increase during the process of institutional changes and still it can work much better. While institutional changes promote the increase of economy, it brings about some problems. If such kinds of problems can be avoided or solved as soon as possible, the potential of economic increase will be revealed to a larger extent.更多还原