【作者】 刘涵；

【导师】 肖红叶；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 宏观税收负担总水平代表着政府对当期社会新增产品的占有程度,一般通过一个国家一定时期内税收总量占同期GDP的比重来反映,它与国家的经济增长和社会稳定密切相关,也是国计民生的关注热点。经济决定税收,税收反作用于经济,研究宏观税负对经济增长的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。但是中国是发展中国家并处于由生产建设型财政向公共财政转型时期,经济转型过程中,中央与地方财权与事权不对等对宏观税负产生了诸多影响,因此,本文将财政分权作为一个约束条件,来研究我国宏观税负对经济增长的影响。本文的研究逻辑如下:首先对国内外有关财政分权、宏观税负的理论文献进行综述,介绍与经济增长相关的经验研究,对衡量我国财政分权度的现有指标和宏观税负口径的文献进行了梳理和分析;其次在Barro内生经济增长模型的基础上结合我国国情对其中的变量加以扩展,建立了财政分权条件下我国宏观税负对经济增长影响的理论模型;然后在制度外收入估算的基础上,对我国的财政分权和宏观税负重新进行了指标设定和估算;最后,以理论模型为指导,利用重新设计和估算的指标体系对财政分权条件下宏观税负对经济增长的影响进行实证研究,并提出相应的政策建议。全文共分为六章:第一章“导论”,介绍本文的选题背景及意义、基本思路与研究方法、章节结构、创新性工作及不足。第二章“文献综述”,这部分对本文研究的相关文献进行了梳理和总结。首先,主要回顾了有关财政分权理论的提出与发展,介绍了财政分权与经济增长关系的经验研究,评价了衡量分权度的指标体系;其次,回顾了西方税负理论的演进,分析了我国宏观税负的统计口径问题,介绍了有关宏观税负的经验研究。第三章“采用标准的分权框架建立两级政府下宏观税负对经济增长影响的理论模型”。对现有的理论模型进行了简单的综述;简要回顾了Barro的内生经济增长模型框架;在Barro模型的基础上,结合我国具体税制及转移支付制度,在财政分权框架下分析了消费者和厂商行为,求出了长期经济增长率和厂商利润最大化时的均衡表达式。第四章“宏观税负估算与财政分权测定”,从国民经济核算的角度,通过《中国统计年鉴》资金流量表(实物交易)对政府部门资金来源进行分类将制度外收入估算出来;在此基础上,将宏观税负划分成三个口径分别进行了计算;从不同角度选取五个基本指标,采用主成份技术,将财政分权造成为一个综合性指标,并将制度外收入和转移支付分别考虑进来,设计成四个不同口径的分权变量。第五章“财政分权条件下宏观税负对经济增长影响的实证研究”,在理论模型和指标测定的基础上,首先对宏观税负的现状进行了多角度统计描述;其次采用时间序列数据进行了宏观税负和税种结构对经济增长影响的实证研究;最后采用省际面板数据,对地方税负和区域税负的经济增长效应进行了研究和比较。第六章“结论与政策空间”,对全文的主要工作与结论进行总结,提出相应的政策建议,指出本文研究的不足和扩展方向。本文的创新性工作主要在于对制度外收入的估算和财政分权指标的设计,利用新的指标体系进行的实证研究及得到的结论也是本文的创新。但本文所做的工作只是对这一领域的一个初步尝试,在实证研究、理论模型、数据搜集、变量间的相互作用等等方面仍存在许多不足之处,需在今后的工作中加以深入和完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 Marco tax Burden, which is always reflected by the proportion of a national total tax revenue accounted for a certain period of time over the GDP accounted for the same period, represents the degree of the possession that the government adopts of current social new products. It closely relates to the country’s economic growth and social stability. It’s the Concerned about hot spots of the national economy and the people’s livelihood. Economic decisions tax, tax counterproductive in the economy, the research on the tax burden with economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance. But China is a developing country and in transition from production-and-construction finance to public finance, during this process, working and financial powers is not mate between the central and local, it does many effects on macro tax burden, so take the decentralization as a constrain to examine China’s macro tax burden on the impact of economic growth.The logic of these studies is as follows: First of all, relevant domestic and international financial decentralization, the theory of macro tax burden were reviewed. Then literature on economic growth associated with the experience of research are introduced, and of the existing macro tax burden’s caliber and the indicators which measures China’s financial decentralization were combing and analysis; followed by the Barro endogenous growth model on the basis of China’s national conditions of these variables to be expanded, the decentralization established under the conditions of China’s macro tax burden on economic growth impact of the theoretical models. On the basis of the revenue out the system, to re-estimate the calibers of financial decentralization and macro tax burden; Finally, the theoretical model as a guide, using the index system of decentralization which is re-designed and estimated, under the conditions of decentralization, to do some empirical research about how the macro tax burden impacts on economic growth, and to make appropriate policy recommendations.The full text is divided into six chapters:Chapter I, "Introduction", the topics on this background and significance, the basic ideas and research methods, sections of the structure, innovative work and insufficiency.Chapter II, "Literature Review", this part of this paper organize and summary the relevant literature. First of all, it reviewed on the theory of decentralization’s beginning and development, introduced the experience of research about the relation between the decentralization and economic growth, and evaluated the index system of decentralization; Second, reviewing the theory of evolution about the tax burden of the Western, analyzing the calibers of China’s macro tax burden, introducing the experienced research of the macro tax burden.Chapter III, "It established a theoretical model about the standard framework under the two government of the decentralization for the macro tax burden impact on economic growth." The current theoretical model for a simple review; brief review of the Barro of endogenous growth model framework in the Barro model on the basis of China’s specific tax system and transfer payment system, in the framework of the decentralization of consumers and manufacturers, obtain the expression when the long-term economic growed mostly and manufacturers maximized its profits.Chapter IV, "Estimation of macro tax burden and measure of decentralization ", from the perspective of national accounts, through the "China Statistical Yearbook," the flow of funds (barter trade), classified the sources of funds of government departments, the revenue out the system will be estimated. Based on this, the macro tax burden will be divided into three calibers to be calculated. Selecting five basic indicators from different angles, by the technology of main element, financial decentralization will be transformed to a comprehensive index, the revenue out the system and transfer payments were taken into account, designed to four different calibers of the index system of decentralization.Chapter V, "Empirical research on macro tax burden on economic growth under the conditions of decentralization ".On the basis of the theoretical models and indicators, first, doing some multi-angle statistical descriptions about the macro tax burden. Second, it took empirical research between the macro tax burden, tax structure and economic growth by time-series data. At last, it had done some research and comparison between the local tax burden, regional burden and economic growth by the inter-provincial panel data.Chapter VI,"The conclusions and policy space", sum up the main conclusions of the work of the text, give the corresponding policy recommendations, the study pointed out the lack of direction and expansionIn this paper, the innovative works are mainly in the estimation of the revenue out the system, and designation of financial decentralization indicators. Using of the new index system for empirical research and came to the conclusion of this paper is also innovative. But the work done is only an initial attempt in this field. There are still many deficiencies in empirical research, theoretical models, data collection, interaction between the variables, and so on. It needed to go deeply and perfectly in the future work.更多还原