【作者】 郝枫；

【导师】 肖红叶；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 1978年,中共十一届三中全会开启了改革开放历史新时期。改革开放30年,中国经济经历了引人瞩目的长期高速增长,经济社会发展取得巨大成就。然而,在经济总量迅速提高的同时,经济结构问题也日益突显,经济可持续发展仍面临严峻挑战。全面回顾改革开放30年发展进程,系统总结中国转型时期的发展经验与教训,对深入贯彻落实科学发展观、全面建设小康社会、实现中华民族伟大复兴具有重大意义。改革开放是党在新的时代条件下带领人民进行的新的伟大革命。改革开放,目的就是要解放和发展社会生产力,实现国家现代化;就是要实现人民富裕、民族振兴;就是要推动社会主义制度自我完善与发展,建设和发展中国特色社会主义。转变资源配置方式是改革的本质要求与核心内容,其目标是由高度集中的计划经济体制转变为充满活力的社会主义市场经济体制,真正使市场成为资源配置的基础、使价格成为经济信息传递的有效载体。资源配置归根结底是对各种生产要素的配置,其直接决定经济发展水平与运行效率,进而决定发展成果分配与社会公平。要素价格是资源配置的重要媒介与基础手段,要素价格决定机制是资源配置方式的根本实现工具,健全的要素价格决定机制是确保要素价格合理性的制度保障。经过20多年市场化改革,中国市场化进程已经取得重大进展,产品价格市场化改革已取得决定性胜利。然而,要素市场发育严重滞后,各类要素价格形成存在制度分割、发展极不均衡。多数劳动力和部分技术要素配置权由市场主导,而(土地、能源)资源、资金要素配置主导权和定价权仍由国家掌握。在这种背景下,要素价格形成机制必然出现扭曲,无法保证资源配置效率,并传导至产品市场,导致产业结构、需求结构与分配结构等一系列经济结构失衡。要素价格扭曲实质如何、后果如何、如何改进,是中国转型时期和深化改革过程中必须认真探讨与回答的重要问题。本文旨在对中国要素价格决定机制进行系统考察,综合利用理论方法与历史方法,给出识别要素价格合理性的理论标准与经验标准。其理论意义在于,以价格决定研究推动转型经济体制理论研究,推动现代经济理论中国化,并推进统计学与经济学交叉研究。其现实意义在于,由价格改革视角回顾与反思中国改革进程,为我国摆脱经济结构失衡提供参考,并从理论上提供贯彻落实十七大重要精神之有益思路。论文结构安排如下:第1章,导论。本章是论文的总体纲要。首先介绍选题背景与选题意义,并对该领域之研究现状和已有文献进行回顾。在此基础上,明确论文的研究目标、研究思路、研究方法与研究路径,并介绍论文总体结构安排。最后,指明该领域与主题内的研究难点,并就本文的可能创新做简要说明。第2章,基本理论分析框架。旨在建立中国要素价格决定机制研究的基本理论分析框架。首先介绍一般均衡理论,并将其作为分析价格决定机制的根本理论依据。随后探讨价格调整路径的内容与形式,作为联结理论均衡与现实状态的重要桥梁。最后,提出一种识别价格决定与调整合理性的思路:从宏观初次分配结构视角对价格体系进行刻画,并将其与基于微观代表性比价关系变动的认识互为补充、互相验证。第3章,相对价格调整:国际经验与历史证据。以理论分析框架为指导,重点考察工业革命前后欧美国家价格决定与价格调整的历史证据,并将其作为研究中国价格问题的经验参照。研究方法上以史为鉴,综合利用大量数据。借鉴已有研究成果,选择小麦价格作为一般价格长期趋势代表,据此对欧美发达国家产品比价以及产品要素比价变化规律进行考察,得出若干有意义的认识。第4章,要素份额演进:经验模式与统计规律。要素份额是各生产要素参与初次分配的宏观表现,也是特定微观价格体系与资源配置状态的作用结果。以第2章为理论基础,重点考察若干发达国家要素份额演进之经验规律,并与第3章给出的产品要素比价关系变化相联系。首先,系统梳理有关“要素份额稳定性”典型事实之争,给出要素份额研究的文献背景。随后,对若干重要发达国家超长时期内要素份额演进规律进行考察,明确要素份额稳定性之条件性和适用边界。最后,深入剖析要素份额演进与经济发展阶段之间的内在联系,探寻要素份额演进特征背后的基本经济决定力量与运行规律。第5章,中国价格决定机制发展变迁历史考察。集中考察中国价格决定机制之历史变迁,由此给出评估中国价格体系合理性与资源配置效率的历史背景与制度依据。首先,考察计划经济时期国家定价机制形成的背景、原因、过程、作用与影响,论证国家定价机制对中国经济发展的历史贡献与效率损失。随后,考察改革初期价格改革的背景与目标,讨论价格双轨制这一特定过渡形式的基本特征与历史作用,以及价格形成机制转换与价格并轨进程。最后,考察市场价格形成机制的形成与发展,重点讨论产品市场与要素市场发育不平衡的表现与后果,并就现存问题与深化改革方向进行分析。第6章,中国初次分配结构与价格合理性识别。以发达国家历史发展规律为经验参照,重点考察中国要素份额特征及其变化趋势;并综合利用世界各国初次分配数据展开中外比较,以初次分配结构和要素份额特征作为识别中国价格体系合理性的基本工具。首先,综合利用多种来源的收入法GDP数据,对近百个国家和地区的初次分配结构进行测算,并分别从国民经济和行业层面展开中外比较。其次,设法推算中国早期要素份额,并就中国要素份额演进与经济发展阶段之间的关系同发达国家历史规律展开比较。再次,揭示国民经济要素份额形成机制,将其变动在行业要素份额与行业增加值比重之间进行分解,并考察产品比价与要素比价对该机制的影响与作用。最后,以扩展的增量利益分配三角模型为基础,就价格体系变化对要素份额的影响进行政策模拟。论文创新工作主要包括:第一,系统讨论均衡价格决定与价格调整之间的内在联系,以价格调整路径作为理论均衡价格与现实价格体系之间的桥梁,达到降低难度、增强可操作性的目的。对增量利益分配三角模型进行扩展,给出明确的参数化界面,并以此为基础就价格体系变化对中国要素份额的影响进行政策模拟。第二,系统梳理“要素份额稳定性”之争的背景与核心观点,揭示要素份额稳定性研究的实质与意义;通过考察欧美发达国家超长时期要素份额演进规律,澄清要素份额稳定性之条件性,并明确其适用边界。深入剖析要素份额演进与经济发展阶段之间的内在联系,探寻要素份额演进特征背后的基本决定力量与运行规律。第三,以经济理论为依据,对各国长期历史数据进行经验分析,并用经验标准作为衡量价格合理性的重要现实依据。微观价格与宏观分配相结合,通过代表品比价关系变动考察价格变动合理性,选用宏观分配数据反映要素比价与产品比价变动。二者结合,既能克服单独使用微观数据遭遇的可得性困难,也可减少单独使用宏观数据的信息损失。第四,揭示国民经济要素份额形成机制,是以行业增加值比重为权数对行业要素份额的加权平均过程。利用指数体系因素分解方法,对1952-2005年期间中国国民经济劳动份额变动进行分解,明确区分劳动份额下降的长期原因与短期原因,并探讨其变化趋势背后的政策涵义。在此基础上,进一步考察产品比价与要素比价对该机制的影响与作用。第五,综合利用各种方法,有效克服数据困难。主要创新工作体现为对缺失数据估算,特别是系统推算了我国1952-1977年劳动份额数据,为该领域研究提供了重要数据基础。在数据可信性检验与数据可比性调整方面,也做了大量艰苦、细致的工作。例如,编接发达国家各时期劳动份额时,对多种不同数据来源结果相互校验;评估中国1933年宏观初次分配结构时,充分利用微观企业收支数据进行检验与补充;进行价格比较与要素份额演进规律研究时,参照已有研究成果将各国不同时期的数据转换公制单位与共同货币表示。这些工作有力确保了数据可比性,并有利于准确揭示变量关系的内在经济规律。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 1978, the Communist Party of China (CPC) held the historic Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee, which ushered a new historical period of reform and opening up to the world. In the past thirty years, China’s economy has experienced a rapid economic growth, and its social developments have been also amazing. However, when the growth rate of the aggregate economy increased rapidly, problems of the economic structure turned out more and more serious, challenging the country’s sustainable economic development. It is important for us to review the course of developments of reform and opening up entirely, and to summarize the experience and lessons of development in the period of China’s economic transforming systematically. It is also important for us to practice the idea of the Scientific Outlook on Development, so as to build a moderately prosperous society, and to rejuvenate the great Chinese nation.The reform and opening up represent a great new revolution carried on by the people under the Party’s leadership in a new era. The aim of it is to release and develop the productive forces, modernize the country, bring prosperity to the Chinese people and rejuvenate the Chinese nation; to promote the self-improvement and development of China’s socialist system and to build and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics.Changing the ways of resource collocation is the essential demand and core of the reform, which aims at transforming a highly centralized and planned economy into a robust socialist market economy, and at making the market become the base of the resource collocation and making price become an effective carrier for transferring economic information. The collocation of resources is the collocation of various productive factors in essence, which decides the economic development level and its running efficiency directly, then decides the distribution of fruits of developments and social equity. Factor price is the important medium and basic means of resource collocation, and its determining mechanism is the essential tool for the realization of the resource collocation. A sound factor price determining mechanism is the institutional guarantee for the rationality of the factor itself.With twenty years’progress of the reform, the market can now decide price for various products in China. However, the development of factors market lags behind largely, and the formations of factor prices suffered institutional division and became a great unbalance as such. Market guides the collocation of labor and part of technology factors, while government guides the collocation of resources (soil, energy, etc) and of the price setting for capital. In this background, factor price determining mechanism must be distorted, and can’t ensure the efficiency of resource collocation. Since this distortion will transmit to product market, there will be various imbalances of economic structures, such as in the industrial structure, demanding structure, and distribution structure. The essence, the aftereffect, and the improvement of the distortion of the factor price must be surveyed and answered seriously in the period of China’s transformation and reform.Using both theoretical and historical method, this paper focuses on a systematic research into China’s factor price determining mechanism, then points out a theoretical yardstick as well as an empirical standard for identifying the rationality of factor price. The theoretic meaning of this research lies at improving the theoretical research of transforming economic system, prompting modern economic theories with respect to China’s situation, and pushing forward a cross-subject research of economics and statistics. The practical meaning of this research lies at reviewing China’s reform from the viewpoint of price reform, so as to provide a reference for correcting the imbalance of China’s economic structure at the moment, and to provide helpful theoretical hints for carrying out the newly policies made by the 17th National Congress of CPC. The arrangement of this paper is as follows:Chapter One: Introduction. The opening chapter gives a general overview of the subject. Firstly, the background and meaning of the theme are introduced and the development and relative research literature are reviewed. The research target, philosophy, approach and the framework of the paper are also presented. The difficulties in this field and innovations of this paper are shown at the end of this chapter.Chapter Two: Analysis framework of basic theory. This chapter aims at establishing a basic theory framework for China’s factor price determining mechanism. General equilibrium theory is introduced in the first place and is treated as a basic theoretical foundation for further investigation. In the end, the way of identifying price determining mechanism and price adjustment is introduced. The main process is to describe relative price system in terms of national primary distribution, and to make a complementary co-test of it with regard to the fluctuant of obvious relative price relations based upon microeconomic aspects.Chapter Three: Relative price adjustment: International experience and historical evidence. Based on the theory framework, this chapter tries to look at the historical data of price determining mechanism and price adjustment in America and some European countries during the Industrial Revolution, which can provide referential experience to China’s price determining mechanism. The research is based on a great deal of data and uses the historical method. The author selects wheat price as an indicator of the long-term trend of general price according some early research. The author tries to find the rules in the relative price of products and factors in the developed countries and obtains a few significant conclusions.Chapter Four: Evolution of factor share: empirical mode and statistical regularity. The factor share is the macroeconomic embodiment of the primary distribution of the production factors. Based on Chapter Two and Chapter three, this chapter tries to review the arguments about“the stability of factor share”and some of the research findings are shown here too. Then, the boundary of application of stability of factor share is defined, which is based on ultra-long term observations from the evolution of factor share in the developed countries. Finally, by investigating the internal relations between the development of factor share and stages of economy development, the determinants and rules of the evolution of factor share are indicated.Chapter Five: Research on the development of China’s price determining mechanism. This chapter centralizes on the background and rationale of China’s price determining mechanism and the resource allocation efficiency. First, by making an investigation of the background, reasons, processes, impacts and influences of the price determining mechanism of planned economy, this paper discusses its contribution and loss of efficiency to China. Second, it reviews the background and target of the early price reform, and indicates the features and impacts of double-track price system and points out the change of the price mechanism. Last, it investigates the form and the development of market price mechanism, discusses emphatically the sequel of unbalanced development of product market and factor market and analyzes the existing problems and their possible direction of reforming.Chapter Six: The Structure of China’s primary distribution and identifying of price rationality. Referring to the historical data of developed countries, this chapter tries to make an investigation of features and trend of China’s factor share, to make a comparison between China and other countries, and to take the structure of primary distribution and factor share as the tool of identifying the rationality of China’s price system. Firstly, based on the GDP data of income method, this paper makes a quantitative estimate about the structure of primary distribution of hundreds of countries and regions, making comparison between China and other economies in terms of national economy and industry level. Secondly, it tries to estimate China’s factor share in the early period and makes a comparison of China and the developed countries between factor share evolution and economic development stages. Thirdly, it unveils the national economy factor share formation mechanism, and decomposes its changes to industrial factor share and industrial value-added proportion, and researches the function and the infection of relative product price and relative factor price. Lastly, based on an extended triangle model about distribution of increment benefit, it makes a policy simulation of effects of changes with price system to factor share.Main innovations of the paper are as follows:Firstly, this paper researches systematically the intrinsic link between the equilibrium determining price and price adjustments. By taking the path of price adjustment as a bridge between the theoretical equilibrium price and practical price system, we can reduce complexity and enhance the maneuverability. Again by extending the triangle model about distribution of incremental benefit, the interface of parameters is clearly pointed out, which can be used as the basis for making policy simulation accordingly.Secondly, it ravels systematically the background and core arguments of "the stability of factor shares", reveals the essence and the meaning of the stability of factor shares. The bound of application of the stability of factor shares is pointed out based on the ultra-long term observation from the evolution of factor share in representative developed countries. This paper also makes a deep analysis of the intrinsic link between evolutions of factor shares and stages of economic development, and explores the basic characteristics of the underlying decisive power and operation rules.Thirdly, based on a few economic theories, this paper looks at the empirical standards by making the analysis of long-term historical data, and uses it as an important measure of rationality of the real prices. With the combination of micro-price and macro-distribution, it researches the rationality of price changes through investigating changes of representative price relations, and researches changes of factor price relations and product price relations by using macro-distribution data. The combined method helps to overcome difficulties in the use of micro-data alone, and reduces the loss of information through the use of macro-data alone.Fourthly, this paper indicates the national economy factor shares formation mechanism, which is a weighted average process of industrial factors share as the weight of industrial added value. By using the breaking down method for index system analysis, it decomposes national economy labor shares in China from 1952 to 2005, and clearly distinguishes long-term and short-term reasons of decreasing of the labor share, also discusses some policy meanings of the trend. Hence, it also researches on the function of relative product price and factor price to this mechanism.Fifthly, this paper synthetically uses a few kinds of methods and tries to overcome difficulties aroused from of data collection. The main innovation is present by estimating of missing data, especially conducting a comprehensive estimate and calculating data of China’s labor share in the period of 1952-1977 systematically, which provides an important base of data for this field. This paper also does hard and meticulous jobs of the test of credibility and the adjustment of comparability. For example, when labor shares in the developed countries are carried out as the series, this paper verifies the results from those data that come from different sources. In evaluating the structure of China’s initial macro distribution in 1933, this paper makes full use of the micro-enterprise income and expenditure data for complementary testing. When making price comparisons and the evolution of factor shares, it refers to researches already accomplished; different data from different countries and periods are converted to metric units and common currency as well. All this work ensures comparability among data, and has the advantage of revealing inherent economy laws among the variables concerned.更多还原