【作者】 刘宝华；

【导师】 曾鸣；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国已经实现厂网分开,正在通过逐步引入竞争机制来建立和完善电力市场。那么,选取一个什么样的电力市场模式,采取什么样的监管政策,配套什么样的运行机制,才能有效提高电力工业的生产效率,优化配置电力资源,同时有效防范和控制安全与经济风险。这是一个需要研究的课题。论文分析了电力工业的特点以及电力市场的运营机制,运用微观经济学的市场供需理论,通过研究电力市场的有效性和长期均衡问题,分析了电力市场的经济风险问题,并论述了市场失灵和价格管制的关系。同时从分析电力系统安全、可靠性的因素入手,阐述了电力系统可靠性与备用容量的关系,建立了相应的可靠性模型,并进行了实证分析,为防范市场经济风险提供理论基础。论文系统梳理了适合我国国情的防范电力市场安全与经济风险的协调机制,包括市场监管、电力期货交易、容量市场、需求侧管理以及限电机制等,并结合我国电力市场建设实际,分析了上述机制的特点,研究给出了一套以现货市场为核心的综合协调安全与经济风险的框架体系,对于我国电力市场风险体系的建立具有一定的参考价值。针对电力市场的核心之一——电价问题,论文重点分析了两种能够确定最优可靠性的定价方法:负荷损失定价法与容量需求定价法。通过构建模型和实证分析发现他们都可以通过合理有效的价格信号引导最优发电装机容量的投资,然而由于这两种方法的立足点、运作机制和支付方式等方面存在本质的区别,因此在电力市场环境下两者所能实现的效果也不一致。通过在投资激励、风险、市场力、期货等几个方面的对比分析,得出在在我国比较适合容量需求定价法。电价也是监管的核心,根据我国厂网分开后的市场建设,研究了价格上限的激励性监管模式,重点研究了具有自然垄断属性的输配电价的监管,并构建了输配电价的监管模型。根据我国区域电力市场的建设情况,研究了互连电力市场中的安全与经济风险问题。通过研究发现,当两个互连电力市场采用不同定价方法时,采用负荷损失定价法的市场可以从采用容量需求定价法的市场获取较多的备用容量,从而增加其可靠性。因此,本文建议我国采用统一的定价方法来规避这种由不同定价方法所带来的风险。通过构建模型计算了当两个互连电力市场采用相同定价方法时的出清价格以及与之相应的合同容量。然后进一步通过模型研究以社会效益最大化为目标时的出清价格,为监管者对互连电力市场的价格监管提供了决策参考。最后,对研究成果进行了总结,并给出了解决我国电力市场安全和经济风险的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Our country has already realized the separation between the generator and the grid, and is gradually introducing the competitive system to establish a healthy power market. As to the situation of our country, it is an urgent problem to select a proper power market mechanism and the operation pattern, and to adopt a suitable supervising and managing pattern and the corresponding policy laws and regulations, in order to effectively enhance the efficiency of power industry, to optimize the disposition of power resources, and to effectively guard and control the security risk and the economical risk during the network operation.The paper analyzes the characteristics of the power industry and the operation mechanism of the power market. According to the the market supply and demand theory in micro-economics and the analysis of the effectiveness and long-term balance of the power market, the paper analyses the economic risks of the power market,and discusses the connection between the market failures and price control. Acorrding to the analysis of the security and reliability factors of the power system, the paper discusses the connection between the reliability of the power system and the reserve capacity, and establishes the corresponding model of reliability, and then takes out the empirical analyses, which are the academic basis of how to prevent economic risks of the market.Several kinds of coordination mechanism between the security risk and the economical risk under the power market condition are introduced: the supervising mechanism of the market, the power futures market, the capacity market, the demand-side management and the restrictive mechanism of the electricity price.Taked the build of our country’s power market into consideration, the characteristics of the above mechanisms are discussed, and the framework of how to coordinate secure and economic risks,which is based on the spot market,is given.And it contributes to the build of the risk mechanism of the power market in China.In accordance with the problem of pricing, two methods to realize the optimal reliability are discussed: Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing, and OpRes pricing.After the moudel builded and the empirical analyses, the paper points that they both result in an optimal average investment in generating capacity through the optimal price signals, but because of the difference in the foothold, operation mechanism and methods of payment, the effect is different. According to the comparative analysis of the encouragememnt in investment, risks, market force and future trades, the OpRes pricing is compatible in China.Because of price one of the cores to monitor and the market builded after the the separation between the generator and the grid, the moudel of incentive regulatory of the price cap is discussed, foused on the regulatory of the natural monopoly electricity transmission price,and the regulatory model of the transmission and distribution pricing is established.According to China’s regional power market building, the secure and economic risks in the interconnectional power markets are discussed.the paper points that when two different methods are taken, the market taking the method of the Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing will get more reserve capacity than the market taking the methold of the OpRes pricing.So it is proposed that it take the unified pricing method to prevent the risks caused by the different pricing method.And the model is established,and MCP and contract compacity is given when the interconnectional power markets take the unified pricing method.and then through the thorough study of the model to maximize social benefits,the relative MCP is given ,which provides a decision-making reference to the regulators in the price regulatory in the interconnectional power markets.Finally, the research results are summarized and the proposals to how to solve security and economic risks in our country’s power markrt are given.更多还原