【作者】 周晓蔚；

【导师】 王丽萍；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 生态系统健康是环境管理与生态管理的目标,生态系统健康评价与风险评价是构建生态安全的重要支撑。本文基于国际上先进的生态系统管理理念与方法,通过对河口生态系统水文、水质、沉积物质量、浮游生物、底栖生物等特征及其与河口健康状况关系的研究,同时应用不确定性分析理论,深入探讨了水环境风险的组成、量化方法及风险决策等问题,在探索河口生态系统健康与水环境风险评价的理论方法及应用方面取得了如下成果:⑴建立了河口生态系统健康评价理论与方法体系。引入复合生态系统理论,提出了河口复合生态系统概念;界定了河口复合生态系统健康的内涵,提出基于“压力-状态-响应(PSR)”框架的河口生态系统健康概念;构建了河口生态系统健康评价体系;把基于智能算法的多属性评价方法引入到河口生态系统健康评价中,建立了基于最大熵的河口生态系统健康模糊评价模型(FAME)、基于集对分析的生态系统健康评价模型(SPAM)和基于投影寻踪的河口生态系统健康评价(PPEH)模型,有效地解决了河口生态系统健康评价指标具有的随机性、模糊性、灰色性、不完全性、不相容性等不确定性特征问题,实现了河口健康状况的现状评价和趋势分析,为河口环境管理和生态管理提供决策依据。⑵以长江口为例,建立了不同尺度的健康评价体系。提出以河口沉积物污染程度、沉积物毒性和底层溶解氧作为确定参照点的依据;构建由多样性指数、种类数、总密度、总生物量、甲壳类的密度百分比和棘皮动物的密度百分比等6个生物参数组成的长江口底栖生物完整性指数指标体系,研究并确定了评价标准,从生物群落评价了河口的健康状态。构建了由年径流量波动比、年泥沙量波动比、入海段面CODMn、DO超标率、COD超标率、DIN超标率、DIP超标率、底栖动物多样性指数、浮游动物桡足类密度比例、浮游植物甲藻种类比例、类大肠菌群超标率等22个敏感指标构成的评价指标体系,并比较科学地建立了5个等级的评价标准,为从复合生态系统对河口健康状态进行评价奠定了基础;运用FAME模型和SPAM模型分别对长江口生态系统健康现状、变化趋势进行评价分析,并用PPEH模型进行验证分析;长江口目前处于亚健康状态,为长江口综合整治及其他河口同类生态建设工程提供理论与方法储备。⑶提出了水环境风险评价和多判据决策模型。把三角模糊数引入水环境沉积物污染的研究,建立生态风险的模糊评价模型(FAER),为水环境沉积物污染的风险评价研究提供一种新思路、新方法。建立基于逼近理想解排序法的多判据决策模型(MCDM),解决了多种方法评价结果不相容的问题。为耦合量化富营养化水体的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性,评价水源污染的环境风险、健康风险和生态风险,以蓝藻毒素-微囊藻毒素为风险指示物,建立了模糊-随机风险评价模型(IFSRA),为不同类型不确定性的整体处理提供了一种有效的方法,并进行了长江下游典型湖泊的风险评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 Healthy Ecosystem is the objective of environmental and ecological management, while ecosystem health assessment and risk assessment is an important support base of the construction of ecological security. Based on the international advanced ecosystem management concepts and methods, through the estuary ecosystems, hydrology, water quality, sediment quality, plankton and benthic organisms, and other characteristics of the estuary and the health status of the research and application of uncertainty analysis theory, this paper studied environmental risks, quantitative calculation of risk management and decision-making and other issues, and have made innovative achievements at estuary ecosystem health assessment and water environmental risk assessment:(1)Establishment of estuarine ecosystem health assessment theory and method system. Complex ecosystem theory was introduced; the concept of multi-estuarine ecosystem was proposed; defined the contents of estuary ecosystem health, proposed concept of estuarine ecosystem based on“Press-Status-Response”and built estuarine ecosystem health assessment system; multi-attribute assessment method based on intelligent algorithms was introduced into the estuary ecosystem health assessment. This paper established the estuary ecosystem health fuzzy assessment model based on maximum entropy (FAME), ecosystem health assessment model based on set pair analysis(SPAM) and estuary ecosystem health assessment model based on projection pursuit (PPEH), which effectively solved the characteristic problems such as randomness, fuzzy, gray, imperfection and Incompatibility of estuary ecosystem health assessment, and implemented assessment and trend analysis of estuarine health status, and provided decision-making basis for the estuary ecosystem and environment management.(2) Take the Changjiang River estuary as an example, a different scale of health assessment system was established. Health assessment system in different range was established for Changjiang river as an example. Through the establishment of biological integrity assessment index, this paper achieved a micro-state health assessment on the estuary ecosystem, proposed sediment pollution in estuaries, bottom sediment toxicity and dissolved oxygen as the basis for determining reference point; through index distribution, correlation and discrimination analysis on candidate indicators, this paper posted IBI system of Changjiang estuarine constructed by the diversity index, types, total density, total biomass, density of crustaceans and echinoderms percentage of the density. Through the principal component analysis, the assessment index system constructed by 22 indicators such as annual run-off fluctuation rate, annual sediment fluctuation rate, CODMn of sea surface, DO over standard rate, COD over standard rate, DIN over standard rate, DIP over standard rate, Benthic diversity index, zooplankton copepods density ratio, phytoplankton species of algae, fecal coliforms Secchi over standard rate was established, which can achieve estuary health assessment. This paper proposed five levels of multi-ecosystem assessment criteria, analyzed estuary ecosystem health status and developing trend by use of FAME model and SPAM models of Changjiang River, achieved the conclusion that Changjiang River estuary and adjacent waters is in the sub-healthy state of the ecosystem which validated by PPEH model analysis, and provided theory and method storage for comprehensive control of estuary ecological construction project of Changjiang River and others since Changjiang estuarine was in sub-health status.(3) Proposed water environment risk assessment and multi-criteria decision making model. Triangular fuzzy number was adopted into research on water environment sediment pollution and establishment of fuzzy assessment model (Fuzzy Assessment Model of Potential Ecological Risk,FAER) in ecological risk, which provided a new thinking and method for risk assessment of water environment sediment pollution. Multi-criteria decision model (MCDM) based on approaching ideal solution was established to solve the incompatible problem of different results. In order to couple and qualify the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty of eutrophic water and evaluate environmental risk, health risk and ecological risk, this paper established an integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) based on risk indicators of cyanobacteria toxins - microcystin,providing an efficient method for integrated processing of different types of uncertainty,thus gave a typical risk assessment in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.更多还原