气候变化对中国粮食产量的区域影响研究

【作者】 刘颖杰；

【导师】 林而达；

【作者基本信息】 首都师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 政府间气候变化专门委员会IPCC第四次评估报告AR4客观、全面而审慎地评估了气候变化已有的和未来的可能影响。现有的观测证据表明,人为增暖可能已对许多自然和生物系统产生了可辨别的影响,但由于适应以及非气候因子的作用,许多影响还难以辨别。粮食、纤维和林业产品在中高纬地区,如果局地平均温度增加1³摄氏度,粮食产量预计会有少量增加;若升温超过这一范围,某些地区农作物产量则会降低。而在低纬地区,特别是干季热带地区,即使局地温度有少量增加（1²摄氏度）,也会导致农作物产量降低。从全球角度看,若局地平均温度增加范围在1³摄氏度,粮食生产潜力预计会随温度升高而增加,若超过这一范围,则会降低。玉米作为全球以及我国重要的粮食、饲料以及能源作物,气候变化对其影响直接关系到我国的粮食安全和能源战略。本文通过对中国粮食历史数据统计分析、未来玉米产量模拟、玉米大田试验三种研究方法,揭示未来气候变化对中国玉米的影响。首先,使用国家统计局《中国农村统计年鉴》1984—2003年的农业生产资料投入和播种面积,以及中国气象局国家气象信息中心气象资料室提供的同期年平均温度。按照华北、东北、华东、中南、西南和西北将中国大陆分为6个区,通过统计分析各区温度变化、农业投入、播种面积等对粮产的影响。其次,选用由英国Hadley中心开发的区域气候模式PRECIS进行不同CO₂排放方案模拟,模式在IPCC SRES B2温室气体排放和RCP 4.5稳定浓度情景驱动下,模拟选定区域50*50km网格的作物模型所需的逐日气象指标。然后将各网格未来B2气候情景和RCP 4.5情景下的2011-2100年90年的逐同天气要素输入CERES-Maize作物模式,运行模式得到两种情景下各样本年的玉米产量。每种情景下分雨养和灌溉两种情况。分省选取一共102个县市的玉米产量变化趋势,通过统计分析温度和二氧化碳对其玉米产量的影响,进而分析气候变化对中国不同地区及播种区玉米的影响。第三,通过大田试验,采用随机区组设计,每小区面积为5m×6m,选择3个供试玉米品种中单8号、中单2996、中单14;分别使用三种处理:全生育期按需浇水（浇水）、地膜覆盖膜上灌水（覆膜）、完全不浇水（雨养）;分别在玉米关键生育期三叶期、拔节期、大喇叭口期、抽雄期、籽粒形成期、乳熟期、蜡熟期,取样七次,鲜样进行超氧化物歧化酶（superoxidedismutase,SOD）、过氧化物歧化酶（peroxidase,POD）、丙二醛（malondialdehyde,MDA）、过氧化氢酶（catalase,CAT）的酶活指标测定。通过酶活性的变化反映玉米在不同处理下的用水情况,进而揭示在未来干旱条件下玉米对气候变化的适应。本文主要研究结果如下:在过去五十年间我国气温呈明显上升,特别是20世纪80年代中期以来,升温速度显著加快,全国各地区在近20年来温度都是逐渐增加的,其中北方地区增暖趋势非常显著,华北、东北及西北地区增温幅度达到0.4～0.8℃/10a,而南方各地区增暖趋势没有北方明显。由于采取了适应措施,气候变暖对东北地区粮食生产的影响是正面的,产量曲线表现为波动式上升。其原因为当温度升高后,农作物的生长期延长,使东北地区采用晚熟高产玉米、大豆品种和选种冬小麦、水稻等高产作物成为可能,农作物栽培和耕作制度发生相应转变,总的生物产量增多。影响作物的冷害也基本解除或明显减轻。预计东北地区粮食生产还有适应温度进一步升高的潜力,在未来几十年内,还可通过改换品种和调整播期抵消增温造成的不利影响,甚至获益。华北地区、西北地区、西南地区的作物对温度的升高适应性较差,表现为对产量的抑制作用,温度升高,作物生长发育加快,生育期相应缩短,致使总干重和穗重减少,影响作物产量的因素,除了作物本身的品种特性以及遗传因素外,还有区域的气候条件和自然地理特点,水资源不足是华北地区农业生产的关键限制因子,而气候变暖在一定程度上加剧了水资源紧张的局面。但这些地区,农业投入的增加及农业科技进步在过去20多年对粮食增产起到了关键作用。华东地区、中南地区的农作物对温度变化的响应不明显,说明其对气候变暖的影响还不敏感,潜在适应性较好。但是总产量在后期明显下降,可能与这两个地区经济发展较快,耕地减少迅速,播种面积下降快有关,值得进一步关注。在未来2011-2100年,温度升高对东北地区及内蒙古东北部玉米有显著促进作用,二氧化碳浓度的升高对东北地区玉米在不同情景下作用不同。结果表明在未来北方春玉米区,玉米产量会有显著提高。各地增产幅度不同,大约在15%～29%之间。温度升高对华北大部分地区玉米生产有抑制作用,各地减产幅度不尽相同,大约在-5%～-28%之间,但对河北中南部玉米有促进作用,可能由于这里是北方春玉米区的下边际生长带,依然有很强的增温空间。二氧化碳浓度升高在稳定浓度情景下,对华北玉米生长有促进作用,在B2情景下,则没有。结果表明在未来黄淮平原春夏播玉米区,玉米产量会有所下降。在稳定浓度下,二氧化碳浓度升高对华东地区玉米生长有促进作用,在B2情景下,二氧化碳浓度升高对华东地区玉米增产没有促进作用。温度升高对中南地区的玉米有促进作用,增幅约在5%～7%,但二氧化碳浓度升高对中南地区玉米没有促进作用,并综合其他减产因素,表明在未来南方丘陵玉米区,玉米产量会有所降低,减产幅度大约在-10%～-28%。在B2情景下,温度升高对西南地区玉米生长有抑制作用,在稳定浓度情景下,二氧化碳浓度升高对西南地区玉米增产没有促进作用。表明在未来西南山地丘陵玉米区,玉米会有所减产,减产幅度大约在-12%～-20%。温度升高对大部分西北地区玉米有抑制作用,表明在未来西北内陆玉米区,玉米产量将有所下降,减产幅度大约在-9%～-23%。而甘肃的产量增加可能因为处于北方春玉米区的西部种植带。根据大田试验可知,中单8号是三种玉米品种中抗旱性最好的,在关键的玉米生育期CAT、POD、SOD均表现为最大值,说明中单8号玉米中存在着较强的保护酶系统,能够在干旱条件下,保证玉米生理生态指标的正常发展。其次是中单14,最次为中单2996。所以在未来干旱条件下,玉米的品种选择应以中单8号为例,选择类似生育特性和遗传特性的品种。覆膜的方式能够提高玉米的用水效率,而膜上灌溉又是节水灌溉技术与地膜覆盖技术的有效结合,与地膜覆盖的增温保墒效应、节水灌溉的省水作用相辅相成,为玉米的生长发育提供了一个适宜环境,是适应未来气候变化及其干旱化的一个很好措施。尤其在玉米生育前期,地膜覆盖的玉米土壤水分高,温度适宜,玉米出苗全,生长健壮,根系建成好,为后期玉米的生长打下了良好的基础。覆膜玉米各个生育时期比较协调而且生长充分,干物质进行了有序的积累和合理分配,整个生育期内的胁迫系数最小,经济产量最高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) objective,comprehensive and careful assessment of climate change existing and likely future impact.The observed evidence shows that it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.However,many of adaptation and the role of non-climatic factors impacts are difficult to identify.Food,fiber and forestry products are mainly distributed in the middle and high latitudes in the region.It is expected to increase a small amount of grain output if the average temperature increases by 1～3℃in the local.If the temperature exceeds the scope,the crop production of some areas will be lower.In the low-latitude areas,especially in the dry season in the tropics,even for a small increase in temperature(1～2℃),will also lead to reduced crop yields.From the global point of view,if the increase in the average temperature in the range 1～3℃,the potential food production is expected to increase with increasing temperature,and if more than this range,the food production potential will be reduced.Corn,as one of the important food,feed and energy crops in China and all of the world,the climate change impact on it directly related to our country’s food security and energy strategy. Based on three research methods of the history of China’s grain data statistical analysis,simulation of future corn production and corn field experiment observation, this paper reveals the impact of future of climate change on Chinese corn.First,this paper uses the data from "China Rural Statistical Yearbook" 1984-2003 of National Bureau of Statistics and the simultaneous annual temperature from the National Meteorological Centre meteorological information library of China Meteorological Administration.According to North China,Northeast China,East China and South China,Southwest and Northwest,China’s mainland will be divided into six areas.This paper statistical analysis the temperature change,agricultural inputs and sow areas impact on grain production.Second,this paper selects the regional climate model(RCM) PRECIS exploited by the British Hadley Centre to simulate under different CO2 emission scenarios. With the two scenarios of IPCC SRES B2 greenhouse gas emissions and RCP 4.5 concentration stability,the RCM simulates the selected regional 50*50 km grid daily weather data.Then the grid in the future climate scenarios of B2 and RCP 4.5 under 90 years of the 2011-2100 daily weather data will be input into crop model CERES-Maize,and output the corn production every year under the two conditions. In addition,each scenario was divided into irrigation and rain-fed two situations.This paper has been selected 102 stations and analyzed impact of temperature and carbon dioxide on maize output statistically.Thereby,analysis of climate change in China’s different regions and the impact on corn planted area.Third,through field experiments taken by randomized block design,each district area is 5m×6m,and select three maize cultivars tested in Zhongdan8, Zhongdan2996,Zhongdan14.The experiment was divided into three managements: on-demand watering whole growth period(water),mulching film of water(covered), not water(rain-fed),and was repeated these tests three times.In the samplings were done at seven key corn growing periods,and measured the activity indicators of superoxide dismutase(SOD),peroxidase(POD),malondial-dehyde(MDA), catalase(CAT).Through changes in the activity of the corn in the different treatment under the water,thus the text revealed adaptation to climate change of maize under drought conditions by giving the changes of the activity of the enzymes under different treatment instead of water usages.In this paper,the key findings are as follows:Temperature in China showed an upward trend between 1951 and 2003, particularly the mid-1980s.The rate of warming accelerates significantly.From 1998 to 2003,five in six years since 1951 were the warmest years,and the warming trend was significant at northern region.North China,Northeast and Northwest regions’ warming is going to be 0.4 to 0.8℃/10 a,but the South region of the warming trend is less obvious than in the NorthAs a result of adopting right measures in northeast area,the climate warming has positive effect on crop production,and the production curve rises volatility.The reason is that when the temperature rises,the growing period of crop will become longer.So it is possible to adopt late-ripping and high-production maize,soybean, winter wheat and rice.The policies of crop cultivation have corresponding changes and the organism production will increase.Chilling injury affected crops are basically removed or reduced significantly.It is expected that the grain production of northeast have the potential of increasing production by temperature in the coming decades, agricultural production can be adjusted by changing cultivar and sowing period to offset the adverse effects of warming,and even benefit.The crop adaptation to temperature rising is relatively poor performance to effect crop yield among the areas of the North of China、Northwest and Southwest.The rising temperature accelerates crop growing,reduces the maturity period,and decreases the dry weight and ear weight.Except crop cultivar and genetic factors, climate of the area and characteristic of the geography affect crop production as well. Water-short is the key limiting factor on agriculture in the North China.To some degree,the climate change aggravates the situation of water-short.But in these areas, the increase of agricultural inputs and agricultural scientific and technological progress has played an important role on crop increase in the last 20 years.The crops reaction to temperature is not obvious in the East of China and the Central North of China.It shows that the crop is not sensitive to climate change and the potential adaptability is better.But the overall production decreases obviously in later time,which is related to the rapid economic development and fast decreasing of farmland and sown area in this two regions.It deserves further attention.In the coming 2011-2100,the temperature rises has a significant role in the northeast and north-eastern part of Inner Mongolia com.The effects of concentration of carbon dioxide on corn are different in the northeast region under different scenarios.The results showed that in the future northern spring maize region,maize yield will be significantly enhanced.Different rates throughout the production,about 15%to 29%.Increasing temperature has negative impact on the production of corn in most parts of North China.Rates vary throughout the production,about -5%to -28%.But it has the role of promoting corn in the central and southern Hebei,which is maybe the because of spring corn here in the north under the marginal growth zone.It still has a very strong warming space.Increasing the carbon dioxide concentration in a stable scenario,it will promote the growth of maize in the North China.But under the B2 scenario,it will not.The results showed that at the Huanghuai Plain spring sowing corn region in the future,maize yield will decline somewhat.With stable concentration,the higher the concentration of carbon dioxide in the area will promote the growth of maize.But under the B2 scenario,the higher the concentration of carbon dioxide has no role on it.The temperature rise will promote the yield of corn in mid-South of China,and the rate is about 5%to 7%.However,the increased concentration of carbon dioxide in mid-South of China did not promote the yield of corn.And integrated other factors which reduce output,it is shown that maize yield will decline at the rate of approximately 10%to 28%in the Southern Hills in the future.Under B2 scenarios,the higher of the temperature in the southwestern region will inhibit the growth of maize,and under the stable scenario,the higher the concentration of carbon dioxide in the southwest does not promote corn production. This shows that in the future the southwest hilly corn,the yield of corn will decline at the rate of about 12%to 20%.The higher of temperature inhibits the corn in most of the Northwest.It is shown that in the future of northwest inland corn zone,maize production will decrease in the rate of about 9%to 23%.The output in Gansu is likely to increase because in the north-western spring corn belt.According to Field Test,we can see that in three corn cultivars,Zhonagdan8 is the best in the drought resistance.In the key corn growing period,CAT,POD,SOD are for maximum performance.This shows that the Zhonagdan8,which has a best and strong protective enzyme system and under the dry conditions,physiological and ecological indicators of maize guarantee the plant’s normal growth.The better one is Zhongdan14,the worst one is Zhongdan2996.So in the coming drought conditions, the corn cultivar in study should take Zhengdan8 as an example,or chose the similar cultivars.Coated ways will improve the efficiency of water use of corn,and the membrane is irrigated with water-saving irrigation techniques mulching the effective integration of technology.Coated ways mulching the warming effect of preserving soil moisture,and water-saving irrigation in the complementary role for maize growth has provided a suitable environment which is a needed and good measure to adapt to future climate change and drought.Especially in the early growth period of mulching maize,it has high soil moisture,suitable temperature,full corn emergence,robust growth,and a good root system which are giving a good foundation for the latter part of the growth of maize.For coated Corn,various stages are more harmonious.And growth period,dry matter accumulation and reasonable distribution are orderly.The coercion coefficient of the entire growth period is minimum,and the economic yield is maximum.更多还原