【作者】 邓永翔；

【导师】 贾仁安；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 电子信息产业是指为了实现制作、加工、处理、传播或接收信息等功能或目的,利用电子技术和信息技术所从事的与电子信息产品相关的设备生产、硬件制造、系统集成、软件开发以及应用服务等作业过程的集合,是目前世界经济中发展最迅速、规模最大的产业,是国家经济的战略产业、基础产业和支柱产业,蕴含着国家和民族的重大利益,世界各国和地区都对电子信息产业发展投入了极大的热情和关注。电子信息产业作为我国经济的战略产业和第一大产业,发展模式问题备受关注。国家高度重视电子信息产业的发展,党的十七大报告中指出:“要促进工业化与信息化融合,优先发展信息产业”,全国各地区也将发展电子信息产业作为落实科学发展观,带动国民经济快速健康发展的产业重点扶持,但全国各地区产业发展不平衡的现象还很严重,产业结构低水平重复的现象还很突出。产业发展模式是在既定的外部发展条件和市场定位的基础上,通过产业内部和外部的一系列结构所反映出来的一种资源利用方式,选择何种产业发展模式关系到电子信息产业能否适应外部环境变化和内部结构特点,取得快速、健康、持续的发展。江西作为电子信息产业欠发达地区,如何充分发挥自身优势,合理配置产业内部及外部资源,在积极承接产业梯度转移的同时,选择什么样的发展模式,如何选择,如何实现选择,影响发展模式选择、优化的因素是哪些,都是迫切需要解决的现实问题,也是需要深入研究的理论问题。电子信息产业发展模式的形成与变化是与一定的时间、地点和条件相联系的,是一个由多个因素相互作用、相互制约的不断变化的动态复杂性系统。本文基于信息经济学、产业经济学、区域经济学等理论,利用系统工程方法和系统动力学模型方法对江西电子信息产业发展模式问题进行了系统分析研究。1.在分析国际和国内电子信息产业主要发展模式的基础上,根据影响电子信息产业发展模式形成与变化的主要因素,对电子信息产业发展模式进行了分类:按产业结构分为全面推进和重点突破模式,按产业布局分为OEM(OriginalEquipment manufacture)、ODM(Original Design manufacture)和OBM(Origihal Brand manufacture)模式,按产业组织分为大企业与中小企业主导模式,按技术创新分为自主创新与引进消化吸收创新,按国际贸易方式可分为以出口为主和国内外市场并重模式、按产业调控方式可分为市场主导和政府主导型。通过分类比较分析,得出了启示与借鉴意义:电子信息产业发展模式是动态的,将随着产业发展状况及国内外经济环境的变化而不断调整和优化,优化和调整的基础必须立足现有资源,产业发展的拉动力来自市场,推动力来自技术创新,保障力来自政府支持,执行力来自人才。2.利用系统科学反馈基模分析理论,提出了系统成长上限模型上限逐步生成与消除法,通过构建江西电子信息产业市场需求成长上限子基模、人力资源不足成长上限子基模、政府支持有限成长上限子基模、资金不足成长上限子基模、创新能力不足成长上限子基模等5个基模,并对其做并运算,得到了江西电子信息产业系统成长上限基模,刻画了资金、市场、技术创新、人才与政府支持相互制约的关联关系。在对江西电子信息产业发展模式进行系统分析的基础上,利用建立的江西电子信息产业系统成长上限基模,提出了消除上限的原理和相应的发展模式与管理对策:江西电子信息产业应采取复合型发展模式,在产业结构方面采取重点突破模式;在市场定位方面,采取国内外市场并举,加快推进省内信息化建设,积极扩大市场需求的发展模式;在产业调控方式方面,采取政府主导与市场主导型相结合,政府重点支持的模式;在技术创新与产业布局方面,采取在自主创新基础上引进消化再创新,实现由OEM、ODM向OBM逐步升级的发展模式,并采取相应的资金、人才、技术、市场、政府支持的管理措施,消除负反馈回路的抑制因素,使正反馈不断增强,促进江西电子信息产业发展。。3.利用系统动力学流率基本入树建模法构建起包括国内生产总值、销售量、从业人员、新产品产值和资产总量5棵入树在内的江西电子信息产业系统结构流率基本入树模型,并利用Vensim软件平台,对江西电子信息产业2001至2015年的发展情况进行了递归方案下的仿真分析;利用基于系统成长上限模型上限逐步生成与消除法得到的江西电子信息产业发展模式及相应的管理对策、方针提出了综合调控理想方案并进行了仿真分析;对递归方案和理想方案下的仿真结果进行了对比分析和应用研究,为产业规划和政府决策提供了定量支持。4.利用江西电子信息产业强简化流率基入树模型和枝向量行列式反馈环计算法,进行了江西电子信息产业系统网络流图的反馈环计算和分析,并在建立极小基模生成集的基础上,生成了新的基模并进行分析,揭示了江西电子信息产业系统的动态复杂性;揭示了江西电子信息产业发展模式的形成是多因素、长时间、动态作用的结果;揭示了管理方针与对策不是孤立的,是相互关联、相互作用的,对策的实施要达到全方位的效果,必须是市场、人才、资金、技术创新、政府管理等各个方面相互配合、整体推进,才能实现;揭示了在调控仿真中,当参数进行调控变化时,系统的输出变量(如流位变量)曲线发生动态变化的重要原因是反馈环的反馈作用;也揭示了在复杂网络结构系统运行中,存在着控制其变化的管理杠杆解集。5.上述研究结果是对江西电子信息产业“十一五”期间有关战略规划措施的论证,在推动江西电子信息产业发展过程中得到了有效应用。有关管理方针与对策在《江西省国民经济和社会信息化“十一五”专项规划》、《江西省电子信息产业“十一五”专项规划》等专项规划制定和实施过程中得到了应用或体现,并通过系统仿真预测分析进行了印证,为产业规划和政府决策提供了定量支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The electronic information industry is the aggregation of equipment produce, hardware manufacture, system integration, software exploit and service etc, for the sake of realizing the function of facture, process, diffuse and incept the information based on the electron and information technology. The electronic information industry is the most rapid and biggest industry in the world, and it is the strategic, basic and the mainstay industry of the current economy. Many countries and regions spend much attention and passion on the development of the electronic information industry.The electronic information industry is the most important and biggest industry of China. Its developmental pattern attracts the much attention. The Chinese government has payed highest attention to its development, The report to the Seventeenth National Congress of the CPC points out that integrate IT application with industrialization, develop information industry. Each province stresses on the development of electronic information industry for Applying the Scientific Outlook on Development. But the imbalance of industry development and repetition of industry structure is still serious. Industry developmental pattern is a resource utilization mode reflected on the inside and outside of industry structure based on the exterior developmental condition and market orientation. The choice of the industry development influence the adaptability of the electronic information industry to the change of exterior environment and internal structure and its development. The electronic information industry of Jiangxi province is underdeveloped, We must face many problems such as, how to configure the resource, how to exert the predominance itself, choose what kind of developmental pattern, how to choose the developmental pattern, what is the effect factor of developmental pattern etc. All the problems are the realistic and theoretic, we must solve and research them.The form and change of the electronic information industry developmental pattern is related to the time, site and condition,and it is a dynamic complicated system, which was effected and restricted by one and more factors. Based on the information economics theory, industry economics theory and region economics theory, the dissertation analyzes the electronic information industry developmental pattern of Jiangxi province by use of system engineering methods and system dynamic models. The major research contents and results are as follow.1. Based on the analysis of the electronic information industry developmental patterns of the international and domestic areas , found on the primary factors of its formation and change , electronic information industry developmental patterns can be classified such kinds: all-sided pattern and emphases pattern according to industry structure; OEM pattern, ODM pattern and OBM pattern according to industry layout; big enterprise pattern and medium- small enterprise pattern according to industry organize; The independence innovation pattern and learn innovation e pattern according to industry technique innovation.; The export pattern and export-domestic market pattern according to industry international trade; The market dominant pattern and government dominant pattern according to industry regulation. And we can find the some reference. Because the electronic information industry developmental patterns is dynamic, it will optimize and modulate according to the change of industry developmental level and economic environment. The optimization and modulation must base on the current foundation, the draught power from the market demand, the promote power from the technology innovation, the ensure power from the assist of government, the execute power from human resource.2. Based on the system feedback archetype mode theory, the dissertation introduce the upper limit stepwise generation and elimination method of the system pullulate upper limit mode, construct the five upper limit archetype mode such as: market demand upper limit archetype mode, human resource upper limit archetype mode; fund upper limit archetype modes; technology innovation upper limit archetype mode; government support upper limit archetype mode ;By combining the five upper limit archetype mode ,we can attain a electronic information industry developmental pattern system upper limit archetype mode. This mode reflects the relation of fund, market demand, technology innovation, human resource and government support. Based on system analyse of the electronic information industry developmental patterns of Jiangxi Province and utilizing the system upper limit archetype mode, we bring forward some manage policy to clear up the upper limit and repressive factors ,and enhance the positive feedback, accelerate the development of the electronic information industry.The electronic information industry of Jiangxi Province should adopt the composite developmental patterns: emphases pattern on industry structure; The export-domestic market pattern on industry international trade; The market dominant and government dominant combine pattern on industry regulation; Based on the independence innovation ,learning innovation and upgrade from OEM/ODM to OBM pattern on industry technique innovation and industry layout.3. On the basis of above researches, a system dynamic model of electronic information industry developmental pattern comprises six rate variable fundamental in-tree is built through system analysis and the rate variable fundamental in-tree modeling. Based on the manage policy to clear up the upper limit and repressive factors, the dissertation designs a integrated modulation plan consisting of recursive plan and ideal plan, compare the system simulation result of recursive plan and ideal plan, provide the measurable support to decision-making.4. The dissertation calculates the amount of feedback loop in the electronic information industry developmental pattern system dynamic mode, analyzes the feedback loop, establishs the system archetype aggregate, generats and analyzes new system archetype,realizes the hierarchy analyze of dynamic complexity feedback. It is account that, electronic information industry developmental pattern system is a dynamic complexity system, the form of the pattern is the result of many factors, long time and dynamic effect; the manage policy are correlative , interactional and unisolated, the implement of manage policy must be all-sided include market, human resource,fund, technique innovation, government support; the reason of system dynamic variety is the effect of feedback loop; the manage lever solution exists in the complex network system.5. The above researches have been applied in promoting the development of Jiangxi electronic information industry. Many manage policies and system simulation result have been adopted by government department. For example, some manage policies have been accepted and embodied on "The Eleventh Five-Year Plan of Jiangxi economy and society IT application"etc.更多还原