【作者】 傅跃强；

【导师】 刘卫东；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国是世界上受自然灾害影响最为严重的国家之一,又处在社会发展的转型期,各类矛盾纷繁交杂,是突发公共事件的高发时期,并且在未来很长一段时间内,我国都将面临突发公共事件所带来的严峻考验。突发公共事件具有危害性、不确定性、信息有限性和时间有限性等特征,不仅可能造成生命财产的巨大损失,甚至可能影响社会稳定,严重者还可能危及国家安全。因此,为了有效预防突发公共事件的发生和控制突发公共事件带来的损失和影响,研究应急管理并建立可靠的应急系统就显得非常必要。突发公共事件应急系统是一个涉及由应急设备设施组成的硬件子系统,由政策法规和运行体制机制组成的软件子系统,以及运用硬件和软件系统的应急响应工作者子系统的复杂系统,涉及政府的许多部门和社会的多个层面。突发公共事件应急系统的功能是最大程度地预防突发公共事件的发生,而在突发公共事件一旦发生时,能够迅速启动和有效运转,将突发公共事件可能带来的损失和影响控制在最小程度。论文以系统可靠性理论为基础,以突发公共事件应急系统响应可靠性为研究对象。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)论文的总体思路综合运用统计模拟理论、系统工程的原理和方法、计算机技术等,从突发公共事件应急系统的一般特性入手,首先定性研究突发公共事件应急系统的结构、功能以及结构和功能间的相互关系,在此基础上给出系统响应可靠性的定义,进一步分析研究影响系统响应可靠性的各类因素,应用系统可靠性理论建立应急系统响应可靠性的分析预测模型,研究求解和验证系统响应可靠性的方法,然后以某企业火灾应急系统为对象进行应用研究,并通过研究来优化火灾应急系统和应急过程。(2)提出了建立系统的结构性原则应急系统具有潜态和实态两种状态,平时处于潜态,事件发生时,迅速转变为实态,事件平息后,又变成潜态。由于应急系统的这种特殊性,因而在结构和功能上形成与一般系统不同的特点。首先,应急系统的运行时间点和时间段是不确定的,不像其他系统有一定的运行周期。其次,突发公共事件发生的地域、类型、危害程度不同,采取的措施、动员资源、应对方式亦不同。这些特殊性表明,不可能建立一个万能的独立的应急系统,也不可能建立很多常设的不同类型的应急系统,这就决定了应急系统结构和功能必须具备足够的柔性。(3)阐述了应急系统的结构和功能应急系统结构上由硬件、软件和人三个子系统组成。硬件子系统包括应急设备和设施等物质资源,软件子系统包括政策法规、组织结构和规章制度,人子系统包括决策、执行、操作、信息和监督人员。三者形成有机联系的整体,硬件子系统构成整个应急系统的物质基础,是应急系统有效实现其响应功能的前提;软件子系统则为整个应急系统提供组织保证,提供政策、方法和技术的支撑;人子系统则是硬件子系统和软件子系统的操作者或运用者,是应急系统最为关键和最为活跃的因素。应急系统有预防和响应两个重要功能,彼此相互联系、相互作用,分别对应于系统的潜念和实态。系统的结构决定系统的功能,系统的功能又反作用于系统的结构,必须根据系统要求的功能,来设计系统的具体结构。(4)应急系统响应可靠性理论研究对应急系统而言,响应功能的启动表示系统进入实念运作,它是缓解和控制事件的最后一道屏障,其功能的可靠发挥极为关键,快速、正确、有效的响应会提高紧急救援的反应速度和协调水平,其可靠性水平是成功应急的基础。论文分析了应急系统的响应过程,从过程输出的重复性或一致性角度提出了应急系统响应可靠性的定义,分别从结构和过程的角度分析了应急系统响应可靠性的影响因素,并分别从功能结构和过程的角度进行了应急系统响应可靠性分析。从功能结构的角度,对应急系统的响应功能进行分解,根据硬件、软件和人的可靠性预测方法求出基本事件可靠性,依据应急响应功能的构成关系,应用故障树分析法求解应急系统的响应可靠度。从过程的角度,建立应急响应过程活动网络模型,并将其转化为Petri网模型,应用ExSpect软件建立应急响应过程模型进行仿真研究。(5)火灾应急系统响应可靠性的应用研究综合运用论文对突发公共事件应急系统响应可靠性的理论研究,以某企业火灾应急系统为研究对象,进行火灾应急系统响应可靠性的应用研究。分析火灾应急系统中企业内部和外部消防队的应急系统结构。分析火灾应急系统影响因素及建立火灾应急系统响应可靠性功能框图模型。建立火灾应急系统响应失败故障树模型并进行分析,从配置合理的消防设备设施、建立消防管理制度和提高员工的消防安全意识三个方面提出了消防安全对策。对系统外部支援力量消防队的应急出动过程可靠性进行了仿真研究,并提出应急过程改进的顺序和对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the countries badly affected by natural calamities and is now undergoing a transition period of social development. Miscellaneous and complicated contradictions are numerous. Consequently, public emergency takes place frequently. China will face severe trial brought by public emergency in long period of time. Public emergency possesses characteristics of harmfulness, uncertainty, limited information and limited time. It may not only cause a great loss to life and property, but also may affect social stability and even may be a threat to national security. Therefore in order to prevent effectively the occurrence of public emergency and to control the loss and influence of public emergency, it is very necessary to research on emergency management and to establish a reliable emergency system.Public emergency system is a complex system. It includes hardware subsystem composed by emergency equipment and facilities, software subsystem composed by the policies and regulations and operating system mechanism, and subsystem of emergency response workers who use hardware and software subsystems. It concerns many departments of government and several levels of community. The functions of public emergency system are to prevent incident. And when incident happens, it launch quickly and operate effectively to control losses and impact brought by incident. This dissertation takes the response reliability of public emergency system as object of research, with the system reliability theory as its basis.The main content of the dissertation are as follows:(1)General idea of the dissertationBy applying the statistical simulation theory, system engineering principle and method, computer art etc. synthetically, it is started with the common characteristic property of the public emergency system. First, it is studied qualitatively that the structure and funcitons of public emergency and its interrelation. On this basis the definition of system response reliability is given. Furthermore, all kinds of factors that affect system response reliability are analyzed. By applying the theory of system reliability, response reliability analysis forecast model of the emergency system is built, and the method of finding the solution and verifying system response reliability is studied. And a fire emergency response system for enterprises is applied researched. Through the above research, emergency system and emergency response process are optimized.(2)The dissertation proposes structural principles of establishing systemEmergency system has latent state and the actual state. Usually it is in a latent state. When the incident happens, it changes rapidly into actual state. After the incident subsided, it changes into latent state. The operation of the public emergency system has its own particularity. As a result, the characteristic is different from general system on structure and function. First of all, run time of the emergency system and reply time section is uncertain, which differs from other system that has a certain operation period. Secondly, the clime, type and endangering degree of public emergency are different. As a result, adopted measure, mobilizing resource and answering mode are different too. This particularity indicates that an omnipotent emergency system can’t be founded and no permanent type of emergency system can be founded. Therefore, system function and structure must have sufficient flexibility.(3)The dissertation expatiate the structure and functions of emergency systemEmergency system comprises hardware, software and human subsystems. Hardware subsystem includes emergency equipment and facilities, and other material resources. Software system includes policies and laws, organization structure and rules and regulations. Human subsystem includes decision-making, implementation, operation, information and supervisory staff. The three form the organic link overall. Hardware subsystem constitutes the material basis for the emergency system. It is the premise for emergency system to achieve its emergency response functions. Software subsystem provides organizational guarantee for the emergency system. It provides support of policy, methods and technology. Human subsystem are operators or users for hardware subsystem and software subsystem. It is the most critical and the most active factor. Emergency system has prevention and response two important features. They correspond to the latent state and the actual. The system structure decides the system functions. The system functions counteract the system structure. The specific structure of system must be designed based on the system functions.(4)Theory research on emergency system response reliabilityFor emergency system, start-up of response function means that the system enters into actual operation. It is the last barrier to ease and control events. The reliable play of function is critical. Rapid, accurate, effective emergency response will increase the level of coordination and reaction speed. The response reliability is the basis of success emergency.The dissertation analyzes the response process of emergency system. According to the repeatability or consistency of process output, the definition of emergency system response reliability is given. From the perspective of structure and process, the impact factors of emergency system response reliability are analyzed. And From viewpoint of the function structure and the process the emergency response system reliability is analyzed. From the perspective of the function structure, the response function of emergency system is decomposed. According to the reliability forecasting methods of hardware, software and human the reliabilities of basic incident are obtained. Based on the composition of emergency response functions and application of fault tree analysis, the emergency system response reliability is solved. From the perspective of the process, the active network model of emergency response process is established and changed into Petri net model. Applications of ExSpect software, the emergency response process model is established and simulated.(5)Applied research on fire emergency system response reliabilityThe integrated using of theory research on the response reliability of public emergency system, taking an enterprise fire emergency system as a case, the response reliability of fire emergency system is applied researched.The internal and external fire brigade’s structure of fire emergency systems are analyzed. The impact factors of fire emergency system are analyzed and the response reliability features diagram model of fire emergency system is established. The failing response fault tree analysis model of fire emergency system is established and analyzed. From the three aspects of reasonable allocation from the fire equipment and facilities, the establishment of fire management system and raise staff awareness of fire safety, fire safety measures are proposed. The emergency dispatch process reliability of external fire brigade is simulated. And the improvement order and measures of emergency process are proposed.更多还原