【作者】 陈勇；

【导师】 江泽慧；

【作者基本信息】 中国林业科学研究院 ， 生态学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 随着中国加入WTO,以及经济全球化的进一步推进,中国林产品对外依存度处于一个迅速上升的时期,这引起了众多专家和学者的关注和担忧,认为中国林产品贸易发展过度依赖国际市场,将会给中国林业经济及相关产业带来一定程度的影响。那么林产品对外依存度是否很高呢?中国林产品对外依存度变化对木材安全的影响如何?当前形势下,这些问题迫切需要通过规范研究和实证研究来回答,对林产品贸易相关政策的制定,对我们解决“三农”问题有积极的意义。在对贸易理论与经济依存理论进行必要梳理和参阅大量文献的基础上,本文从中国林产品对外依存度的变化及林产品对外依存度的国际比较入手,综合运用国际经济学、林业经济学等学科理论以及定性分析、定量分析相结合的研究方法和手段,分析林产品对外依存度变化对中国社会经济发展的影响,并在分析木材安全的基础上提出构建适度的林产品对外依存度,最后探讨构建中国适度的林产品对外依存度的措施及政策保障。第一章,引言。在这章中笔者阐述了本文的选题背景、研究的意义、研究内容以及本文的逻辑框架等。第二章,概念的界定及研究的理论基础。在这章中笔者对文中涉及的主要概念进行了界定,并对研究的理论基础,主要是对贸易理论和国际政治经济学理论进行了系统的阐述,最后总结了国内外在依存度方面的研究动态。第三章,林产品对外依存度的现状及变化特点分析。本章在分析中国林产品生产、贸易和消费情况的基础上,对中国林产品对外依存度的变化及特点进行了阐述,指出中国林产品对外依存度的变化给中国林产品贸易的发展带来了机遇,同时也带来了严峻的挑战。第四章,林产品对外依存度的国际比较。在这章中笔者对中国、美国、日本、德国等18个国家的林产品对外依存度进行了总体和分类的比较,通过比较得出结论:林产品对外依存度的高低跟森林资源禀赋、国家经济发展规模、经济发展阶段、贸易方式等因素有关。并且通过聚类分析比较,中国林产品进、出口依存度并不是很高,主要是经济结构方面的问题。第五章,林产品对外依存度变化对中国企业的微观影响。本章将就中缅、中俄木材贸易的变动以及近年来的林产品贸易摩擦对中国木材企业的影响进行案例分析,加深对中国林产品市场与世界林产品市场相互影响的认识。中国林产品对外依存度的变化将对部分地区林产品加工企业的发展产生了深远的影响,并且在低水平的国际分工基础上实现高水平的对外依存度,造成的直接后果是贸易条件恶化,对外贸易磨擦频繁。第六章,林产品对外依存度变化对中国社会经济发展的宏观影响。本章将尝试采用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来综合评估林产品贸易变动对中国社会经济发展的影响。通过分析表明,虽然中国林产业在整个国民经济中所占的比重还偏小,林产品贸易的波动还不足以引起整个国民经济的动荡,但是林产品对外依存度的改变对于经济繁荣、企业发展、人民就业还是不可避免的产生冲击。第七章,中国木材安全和林产品对外依存度。本章探讨对外依存度达到一个何值时才是一个“适度”的量值,才能既满足国民经济和社会发展需要,又能实现中国的木材安全。第八章,基于木材安全思维构建林产品适度对外依存度。本章根据中国的实际情况和木材安全的需要,提出构建适度的林产品对外依存度的措施和政策保障。第九章,结论和讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 With China’s accession to WTO and strengthening of world economic integration, China’s foreign dependence for forest products is increasing. And this arise concentration and worry from experts and researchers, who regard that the development of Chinese forest products trade depend too much on international markets, which might bring negative influence on Chinese forestry economy as well as the associated industries. Then, how about Chinese forest products’foreign trade and its dependence? And will the increasing of Chinese foreign dependence bring negative influence on Timber Safety? It is necessary to answer these questions by thorough studies. Also it is helpful for making forest products trade policy. Therefore it is of great theoretical and practical significance.Based on review of theory for foreign trade and economic dependence literature both at home and abroad, this thesis begins with the changes and international comparison of Chinese foreign dependence for forest products, and then uses corresponding theory in international economy and forestry economy, as well as adopts qualitative and quantitative methods, to explore the contribution of foreign trade for forest products to Chinese economic development. Followed is the establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products in China. And this thesis concludes with discussion on measures and policies that China can choose in the process of establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products.The first chapter is introduction, including research background, significance, content, as well as the frame of this thesis.The second chapter is the definition of conception and the review of theory. The chapter clears main conception in the report such as forest products, the degree of dependence and log equivalence. The chapter also expatiate the theoretical basis of report, which focuses on foreign trade promoting, protecting and international political economy theory. And it also provides brief review of existing studies on dependence both at home and abroad.The third chapter is the status quo and characteristic of foreign dependence for forest products. Based on the analysis of production, trade and consumption for Chinese forest products, the chapter analyses the change characteristic of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products, which show the change not only provide good opportunities but also bring about many challenges for our trade development.The forth chapter is the international comparison of foreign dependence for forest products, mainly comparison of Chinese ones with those of the USA, Japan, Germany and other 14 countries. The results show that the degree of foreign dependence for forest products has relate with forestry resources, national economic development scale and phases, trade manner and other factors. According the cluster analysis, we think both Chinese forest products’export and import dependences are not very high and the main problem is the economic structure.The fifth chapter is the micro-impacts analysis of the fluctuation of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products. The chapter will take China-Myanmar timber trade, China-Russia timber trade and trade frictions recently as cases to analyze the impacts of its fluctuation on China’s wood enterprises in a bit to deepen the understanding of reciprocal impacts on China and the world’s forest product markets. China’s dependency fluctuation will produce profound impacts on China’s development of forest product processing industry in some areas, and the direct result of this dependency established on the bases of low leveled international division of labor is the deterioration of trade conditions and the frequency of foreign trade conflicts.The sixth chapter is the macro-impacts analysis of the fluctuation of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products. The chapter will try to use CGE model to comprehensively evaluate the influence of foreign trade fluctuation for forest products to Chinese economic development. It is found that although the proportion of forest product industry in the whole national economy is tiny, the fluctuation of forest products trade could not causing turbulence to the entire national economy, but the changes of foreign dependence for Chinese forest products are the unavoidable impacts on economic prosperity, business development and people’s employment.The seventh chapter is to analyze the Timber Safety and foreign dependence for forest product. The chapter discusses which degree is a“moderate”one to scale the foreign dependence, which will not only satisfy the demand of national economy and social development, but also realize China’s Timber Safety.The eighth chapter is the establishment of forest products ’ foreign dependence based on the Timber Safety thought. According to the real situation and the demand of Timber Safety in China, the chapter will carry out the measures and policies for the establishment of moderate foreign dependence for forest products.And the last chapter makes overview of the above analysis.更多还原