【作者】 周少舟；

【导师】 蒋有绪；

【作者基本信息】 中国林业科学研究院 ， 生态学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 为了改善我国生态环境,保障社会经济健康稳定发展,以“三北”(西北、东北、华北)防护林体系建设工程为标志,我国林业开始进入以工程实施带动生态环境建设时代。从发展历程来看,林业重点工程建设对当地社会经济发展的促进作用不容忽视,其产生的综合效益需要认真评价,其发展中存在的问题需要进一步的认知和总结。作为我国林业重点工程之一,天然林资源保护工程是在我国长江上游、黄河上中游地区以及东北、内蒙古等重点国有林区实施的具有全局战略性的林业生态建设工程。该工程内容复杂、涉及面广、影响程度深、实施难度大,工程建设10年来,对工程建设成效进行评价是客观反映工程自身规律的必然要求,也是下一步进行工程政策调整、工程方案重新规划的参考依据。通过文献综述,本文认为开展天保工程建设成效评价是一项全新的、具有开创性的工作。开展这项研究可以建立一套天保工程建设成效评价指标体系和评价标准,这可以填补林业重点工程建设评价标准的空白,有利于客观反映天保工程运行情况,科学准确地评价工程产生的社会经济效益,从而为实现工程规划目标,为提高国家投资效益,为及时调整国家政策提供良好的决策参考作用。因此,开展这项研究具有十分重要的意义。经过文献阅读,本文在总结已有研究成果的基础上认为:天保工程建设成效评价需要构建一套科学的评价指标体系。构建天保工程建设成效评价指标体系需要解决三个主要问题,即系统全面的指标和指标体系、科学实用的评价方法、通过样本调查获取实际指标值。这是本文研究的核心内容,也是本文的创新所在。从2003年开始,国家林业局经济发展研究中心一直在从事重点国有森工企业实施天然林保护工程社会经济效益监测工作。通过长期监测实践,监测指标的适用性、合理性和权威性不断增强,可以作为天保工程建设成效评价的直接参考依据。本文根据国家林业局经济发展研究中心重点国有森工企业实施天然林保护工程社会经济效益监测成果,在原有监测指标体系的基础上,依据研究目标和要求,有选择性地抽取了33项评价指标,构成评价指标体系,从天保工程实施进展及政策落实情况、森林资源变化、社会影响和经济影响四个方面来分析和评价天保工程建设成效。在天保工程建设成效评价指标体系中,各项评价指标的实际指标值均来自重点国有森工企业实施天然林保护工程社会经济效益监测成果。在评价方法上,本文借鉴国际上和国内相关部门经验,和已有的评价方法的优缺点,根据天保工程建设实际情况,最终采用功效系数法对天保工程建设成效进行评价。功效系数法根据指标赋权、赋值,逐层汇总的原则和方法,对天保工程建设成效打分,并给予总评价,并通过对指标打分来判断工程建设发展状态,分析存在或潜在的问题,探询可行的政策建议。功效系数法核算结果表明,天保工程建设成效打分结果为73.71分,总体评价为“良”。其中,工程实施及政策执行情况打分为85.59分,评价为“良”,接近于“优”;工程建设社会影响打分为74.74分,评价为“良”;森林资源变化情况和工程建设的经济影响打分结果均为67.25分,评价结果为“合格”。评价结果表明:第一,天保工程建设顺利,各项政策执行比较到位。这说明,天保工程实施单位整体上能认真贯彻工程各项政策,能认真完成工程建设任务。第二,天保工程建设整体上取得了良好的成效。工程实施区森林资源得到了恢复性增长,森林蓄积基本达到工程实施前的水平。林区经济实现了恢复性增长,经济总量已经超过工程实施前的水平。林区社会保障体系开始建立,劳动力闲置问题得到一定程度缓解。第三,天保工程建设还有改进的空间。天保工程建设后期政策调整要重点关注工程资金缺口和拨付延滞问题、森林资源消耗仍然较高的问题、富余职工妥善安置问题、林区经济发展和结构优化问题、林区社会稳定问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve China’s entironment and ensure its sustainable socio-economic development, some key forestry programs have been putted into practice with the symbol of Key Shelterbelt Development Programs in Such Regions as the Three-north and the Middle and Lower Reachers of the Yangtze River ( SDP ) in 1978. It was thought to be interesting and useful to estimate the effects of key forestry programs in boosting regional socio-economical development, and perceive some factors counteracting its benefits.As one of the key forestry programs in China, Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) is being constructed in national state-owned forestry regions as up reachers of Yangtze River, up and middle reaches of Huanghe River for China’s strategical and ecological development. Since NFPP, with complex and multiple objects, covers very large regions, affects numerous people and have being constructed by 10 years, it is thought necessary to estimate its effects on forestry resource, farmers’living and socio-economic development, which will be the basis for policy referrence and suggestion.After literature review, the study on estimating effects of NFPP is considered to make a set of indictors, which will be used for bridging a gap in key forestry programs evaluation, refecting the process of NFPP and evaluating its effects. So this study is very interesting and important for improving the efficiency of government investment.As a result of literature review, it is found that evaluation of NFPP should be based on a set of reasonable and practical indictors. And to construct a set of indictors for NFPP, such key factors should be considered as systemic indictors, useful method for evaluation, and sample for indictor value. All these works will be the key content and structure of this study.From now on, the monitoring on effects of NFPP constructed by key forestry enterprises is doing by National Forestry Economic and Development Center, SFA ( FEDRC ). After several years practice and indictors modification, its indictors for monitoring on effects of NFPP can be used for evaluation. So the indictors for evaluation used in this study have its roots deep in 330 kinds of indictors for monitoring by FEDRC. And the indictors selection are finished considering the objects of the study. The result is 33 kinds of indictors with regard to the progress and policy carrying out of NFPP, the changes of forestry resource and socio-economic development. And the indictor value also originated from the results of monitoring on effects of NFPP constructed by key forestry enterprises.As for the method for evaluation, this study pays much attention on relative methods used home and abroad. Based on practical situation of NFPP and relative merits of those methods being used, the method of efficacy coefficient is used for evaluation in this paper to mark the process and effects of NFPP, which will be basis for evaluation and policy suggestion.As a result, the process and effects of NFPP is marked 73.71, and evaluated as“good”. Regarding each part of NFPP, the construction and policy carrying out of NFPP is marked 85.59 and evaluated as“good”, social effects of NFPP, 74.74 and evaluated as“good”, both changes of forestry resource and economic effects are marked 67.25 and evaluated as“pass”respectively.Based on results above, we can draw such conclusions:Firstly, NFPP goes well and its policies carried out in place. The good effects of NFPP indicate the good work of key forestry enterprises.Secondly, NFPP has good effects in state-owned forestry region. With NFPP carrying out, forest recovers the region and its volume is near the level of 1997. And economic development regains its vitality and the GDP gets ahead of that of 1997. The very important thins is social security system has been build in forestry region and labor idle is relieving to some extent.Lastly, some steps should be taken to improve the efficiency of NFPP, especially to resolve such difficulties as funds shortage and delay, higher quantity of forestry resource consummation, labor idle, regional economic development and efficiency improvement, and social stable and peace.更多还原